2019 Mississippi Gubernatorial Thread- Jim is in the hood!

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Can we talk about the legislative races in here?

Several state reps and senators possibly running for statewide offices that could create some interesting open seats. Jay Hughes has already announced he's running for LG. Then you have a couple rumored candidates. Baria for AG and Buck Clarke for treasurer. The C-L is also saying Briggs Hopson and Sally Doty might run for higher office, though it doesn't specify.

Without knowing who is running, Hughes' seat in Oxford will be a toss-up. That seat is almost always competitive. If Baria runs for AG, Republicans will take that seat back (he nearly lost in '15). BSL actually has some white liberals, but the rest of Hancock County is loaded with right wingers.

If Clarke runs for treasurer, Dems have to take that seat with it being majority-minority. Hopson didn't have opposition in 2011 or 2015, but his district was like 45% black last redistricting, so that's a possible Dem pickup.

Also, HD40 in DeSoto County is absolutely in play for Democrats. Clinton won there, albeit narrowly, and I bet Espy did even better (waiting on precinct returns).

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Relevant MS-Gov news:  two candidates, a Republican and a Democrat, are entering the race.

Freshman state representative Robert Foster of Hernando will annonce his intention to run as a Republican.  He's unlikely to be significantly well-known or financed in the beginning, but he has a potentially strong DeSoto County base that could be problematic for Reeves in a GOP primary.  It seems like his bio would sell well in a primary, especially in contrast to Reeve's ubiquitous status as a "career politician".

Additionally, former Army officer and JSU administrator Valesha Williams has announced her candidacy as a Democrat.  This is her first run for public office.  I bet she'll try to take up the #OurRevolution banner and attempt to compete with Hood for the African-American and liberal vote.

Two low-tier candidates to be sure, but they are both positioned to take advantage of weak spots that Hood and Reeves have with their bases.

Don’t forget about Hal Marx, mayor of Petal. Could get some of those Pine Belt/McDaniel voters.

Still, it’s highly unlikely that this primary even goes to a runoff.

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Can we talk about the legislative races in here?

Several state reps and senators possibly running for statewide offices that could create some interesting open seats. Jay Hughes has already announced he's running for LG. Then you have a couple rumored candidates. Baria for AG and Buck Clarke for treasurer. The C-L is also saying Briggs Hopson and Sally Doty might run for higher office, though it doesn't specify.

Without knowing who is running, Hughes' seat in Oxford will be a toss-up. That seat is almost always competitive. If Baria runs for AG, Republicans will take that seat back (he nearly lost in '15). BSL actually has some white liberals, but the rest of Hancock County is loaded with right wingers.

If Clarke runs for treasurer, Dems have to take that seat with it being majority-minority. Hopson didn't have opposition in 2011 or 2015, but his district was like 45% black last redistricting, so that's a possible Dem pickup.

Also, HD40 in DeSoto County is absolutely in play for Democrats. Clinton won there, albeit narrowly, and I bet Espy did even better (waiting on precinct returns).

Interesting. What about an "Old guard" - Wilemon and Dearing - in state Senate? One will be almost 85, other - almost 80, IIRC....

No clue without knowing who will run. My gut is that Wilemon (should he run) will get either no opposition or some Republican that isn’t really a threat. Dearing probably gets more of a challenge.

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Can we talk about the legislative races in here?

Several state reps and senators possibly running for statewide offices that could create some interesting open seats. Jay Hughes has already announced he's running for LG. Then you have a couple rumored candidates. Baria for AG and Buck Clarke for treasurer. The C-L is also saying Briggs Hopson and Sally Doty might run for higher office, though it doesn't specify.

Without knowing who is running, Hughes' seat in Oxford will be a toss-up. That seat is almost always competitive. If Baria runs for AG, Republicans will take that seat back (he nearly lost in '15). BSL actually has some white liberals, but the rest of Hancock County is loaded with right wingers.

If Clarke runs for treasurer, Dems have to take that seat with it being majority-minority. Hopson didn't have opposition in 2011 or 2015, but his district was like 45% black last redistricting, so that's a possible Dem pickup.

Also, HD40 in DeSoto County is absolutely in play for Democrats. Clinton won there, albeit narrowly, and I bet Espy did even better (waiting on precinct returns).

DeSoto precincts came in today. Espy won an estimate 62% in HD40 (estimate because one of the precincts in this district is split, but I tried to account for this).

HD64 (NE Jackson and a little bit of Madison Co.) also looks to have been won by Espy, something like 52-53%. Bill Denny is 88 and has been in office forever, and I don't even know if he's running for re-election. Regardless, Dems need a legit challenger here.

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Henley (HD40) seems to be rather young, and won convincingly in 2015. Is it a realistic district to switch?

It's purely demographics. Southhaven and particularly Horn Lake are places where white % is down and black % is up. Espy won 3/5 in HD40, and Dems should at least contest this district.

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The C-L put out an updated list of people that might run statewide office in 2019.

https://www.clarionledger.com/story/news/politics/2018/12/06/whos-running-2019-elections-mississippi-governor-lieutenant-governor-lt-gov-attorney-general/2202478002/

Couple businessmen are considering a run, apparently. Tommy Duff, owner of the Southern Tire Mart chain, is a billionaire and is the richest person in MS (per Forbes). The C-L is saying he might make a run, though I was told a few weeks ago that he wasn't running. The article also says Gerard Gilbert might run. He's the founder and CEO of something called Venture Technologies in Ridgeland. I'm less familiar with him than I am Duff. If either were to run, they could run a Fordice/Trump-type campaign where they talk up their business experience and how they're not a usual politician or whatever. White Mississippians generally like people that. Don't know enough about Gibert, but Duff would obviously be able to self-fund.

The article adds that McDaniel might run. State politicos think Trump could endorse him and that would shakeup the primary. Bill Waller Jr. (son of former governor Bill Waller Sr.) is resigning as Chief Justice of the MSC and did not run rule out a run when asked in November. It's mentioned in the article that he can't declare party affiliation as a justice, but that won't be an issue since he's resigning. He'd have a strong base of support in Hinds and Madison County.

And Hood is looking like he'll have another primary opponent. Anthony Witherspoon, mayor of Magnolia, may run. He would run to the left of Hood, and advocates for a $15 minimum wage, legal weed, criminal justice reform, and free community college tuition.

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Henley (HD40) seems to be rather young, and won convincingly in 2015. Is it a realistic district to switch?

It's purely demographics. Southhaven and particularly Horn Lake are places where white % is down and black % is down. Espy won 3/5 in HD40, and Dems should at least contest this district.

Thanks! I understood, that Black % is up)))))

Yes. That was a typo. White % down, black % up.

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I am a bit concerned about Hood winning in an 80% black primary...

The primary won't be 80% black. Keep in mind that a lot of rural whites still vote in the Democratic primary because of the local races. 299,368 voted in the Dem primary in '15 vs. 274,108 in the GOP primary.

Map of which party primary had the most votes:

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It's nice that we're all optimistic, but someone on AAD brought up the electoral college.

Seriously, in order to win MS-GOV, you need to win the PV AND a majority of state house seats.

I think it's quite possible that Hood wins the PV and loses the election.

No.  You only have to win a majority of state house seats if not candidate wins a majority of the statewide vote.

Section 140 of the state constitution seems to make it pretty clear that you must win a majority of districts AND the majority of the vote.

http://www.sos.state.ms.us/ed_pubs/constitution/constitution.asp

The Governor of the state shall be chosen in in the following manner: On the first Tuesday after the first Monday of November of A.D. 1895, and on the first Tuesday after the first Monday of November in every fourth year thereafter, until the day shall be changed by law, an election shall be held in the several counties and districts created for the election of members of the House of Representatives in this state, for Governor, and the person receiving in any county or such legislative district the highest number of votes cast therein, for said office, shall be holden to have received as many votes as such county or district is entitled to members in the House of Representatives, which last named votes are hereby designated "electoral votes". In all cases where a representative is apportioned to two (2) or more counties or districts, the electoral vote based on such representative, shall be equally divided among such counties or districts. The returns of said election shall be certified by the election commissioners, or the majority of them, of the several counties and transmitted, sealed, to the seat of government, directed to the Secretary of State, and shall be by him safely kept and delivered to the Speaker of the House of Representatives on the first day of the next ensuing session of the Legislature.

The Speaker shall, on the same day he shall have received said returns, open and publish them in the presence of the House of Representatives, and said House shall ascertain and count the vote of each county and legislative district and decide any contest that may be made concerning the same, and said decision shall be made by a majority of the whole number of members of the House of Representatives concurring therein by a viva voce vote, which shall be recorded in its journal; provided, in case the two (2) highest candidates have an equal number of votes in any county or legislative district, the electoral vote of such county or legislative district shall be considered as equally divided between them. The person found to have received a majority of all the electoral votes, and also a majority of the popular vote, shall be declared elected.

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So if there's a split favoring Reeves in the "electoral college", it's not an automatic Reeves win but voted on by the members of the House per section 141.

I wonder if Mississippi's rules are even legal/constitutional. I've seen it mentioned that they are ripe for a challenge. Given that this convoluted system probably only came into existence to keep African Americans from meaningfully influencing elections, I'd say it would go to the courts if Hood won more votes but it got thrown to the Republican anyway.

That's what I would expect.  But I expect that there are still many Republicans in the state legislature who couldn't stomach voting against Hood if he was an apparent winner in an election.

I can see them making up something like "VOTER FRAUD IN HINDS COUNTY AND THE DELTA!!1111!!11" as their reason for voting Reeves in.

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http://sos.ms.gov/elections/electionresults/2015General/certified%20results/2015%20Electoral%20Vote%20Report.pdf

Hood won the house districts 69-53 in the ’15 AG race, but he won quite a few by single digits. He won’t do nearly as poorly as Generic Democrat in the TVA counties, but a lot of these districts will be won by Reeves (though it’ll be closer) in 2019. This is assuming, of course, that a Hood win will be close. Something like 51-49 or 52-48, not a 55-45 race like 2015. An 8-10 point win and he probably does carry the districts.

I see 45 districts where Hood either definitely wins or probably wins. For Reeves, 50. After that, it’s unclear.

Some of these rural districts with 25-35% black % will be crucial.

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Sure looks like Gibert is running.

https://twitter.com/grgibert/status/1072474352770277377

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Foster's run is officially official.

https://mississippitoday.org/2018/12/12/rep-foster-rebuffs-pressure-cash-from-gop-insiders-to-stay-out-of-governors-race/

Late last month, an operative with strong ties to the state’s Republican establishment called Foster and offered him a large sum of money to drop his rumored bid for governor, according to several people close to Foster’s campaign. The caller, they said, promised Foster they would help him raise $1 million if he ran for a statewide office other than governor. Foster declined.

Foster confirmed he received pressure from within his own party to drop out of the race for governor, but declined to discuss specifics.

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Y'all Politics says Duff isn’t running.

So for the Republicans, you have Reeves, Foster, Marx, and possibly Gibert.

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Buck Clarke running for State Treasurer. Dems have a real shot to pick up this seat with the district being majority-minority.

https://mississippitoday.org/2018/12/19/sen-clarke-powerful-money-committee-chairman-announces-state-treasurer-bid/

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Eh, I wouldn't count out the Dems entirely in SD5. It's a very conservative district (~85% Trump), but if they get some countywide office holder from Tishomingo or Itawamba to run, they'll have a chance.

But I'd say there's a much better chance that the GOP holds SD22 than the Dems holding SD5. SD22 is going to be competitive pretty much no matter what. SD5 could be competitive, but there's also a chance that the Republican wins by 40-50.

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MS Today with some more rumors on state candidates.

https://mississippitoday.org/2018/12/27/statewide-announced-and-rumored-list/

Apparently, there's a chance that Waller could run an independent, 3rd party campaign (which would guarantee that it goes to the House). Like the C-L, they mentioned Duff as a potential candidate, but I keep hearing that's false. Better chance that Gibert runs out of the business guys mentioned, IMO.

If Foster won the primary, you could have a Foster-Hood-Waller general, which would be somewhat interesting. But it's highly doubtful that Waller gets in the top 2 over Foster, and the House would then pick between Foster and Hood. Obviously, Foster would almost certainly get the nod from the legislature.

They also say McDaniel could run for governor or LG but I'll believe it when I see it.

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Reeves made it official today. Also, Marx withdrew his candidacy after his wife was diagnosed with cancer.

And Russell Jolly won't run for SD8 this year. District is 34% black.

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List of Senators NOT running for re-election:

Terry Burton (R-Newton)
Videt Carmichael (R-Meridian)
Buck Clarke (R-Hollandale)
Bob Dearing (D-Natchez)
Billy Hudson (R-Hattiesburg)
Russell Jolly (D-Houston)
Gray Tollison (R-Oxford)
Michael Watson (R-Pascagoula)
J.P. Wilemon (D-Belmont)

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The State GOP has a list of Republican candidates that have filed. Updates every Friday.

https://msgop.org/2019-candidates-to-file/

GOPers have already filed to run in seats vacated by Jolly, Wilemon, and Dearing.

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Andy Taggart running for AG. That's interesting.

Waller and Taggart will sorta be a test case of how important NE Jackson and Madison are in statewide politics. Both are big in that area, but I'm guessing aren't well-known elsewhere in the state.

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I thought 2019 would be the year MS Dems could stage a comeback (Jim Hood at the top of the ticket + a potentially good Democratic year nationally), but Friday's candidate filings prove that the party is not in a strong position going into the GE.

Dems conceded a lot of potentially competitive legislative districts.  In my State House/Senate districts, no candidates even filed except for the GOP incumbents.  I find this especially frustrating because Starkville is only of the few "White liberal" parts of the state where Tate Reeves is unpopular and Dems could potentially make gains using the same playbook they did across the country in 2018.  

Also it's bad news that Hood has eight Democratic primary opponents for governor.  Good grief, with that many folks running I wouldn't be surprised if he gets forced into a runoff.  The Democrats also has effectively conceded statewide races for SOS, AG, Auditor, Ag Commissioner, and Insurance commissioner.  They also will almost certainly to lose the majority on the PSC.

One bright spot for Dems are their filings for District Attorneys.  Only two DA districts will feature a general election (District 10, which should be heavily Republican, and District 14, which is more of a tossup).  In the districts without general elections, the parties split 9-9 (which I'm thinking is engineered, just seems too neat to not be otherwise).

I was hoping that Dems would recruit a good class and I could in good-conscious vote in the Dem primary.  Unfortunately that didn't happen, so I'll just be voting to muck things up in the GOP primary (Probably Waller and Taggart, since I don't want Watson or McRae to even smell a statewide office).

I wouldn't be surprised at all if the Dem primary goes to a runoff. Shuler is going to do quite well in Hinds County and maybe in some of the Delta. You also have the former Natchez mayor running that could eat at Hood's total in Adams/Claiborne/Jefferson/Wilkinson.

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The vast majority of voters (at least 75%) don't even know what the IHL is and 97-98% don't care about this issue at all. Neither candidate has said anything and they're smart to do so.