In the aftermath of the NDA landslide in 2014 I wrote
As for what INC should do, just like the DPJ after the 2012 Japan elections, there is no time to waste. There must be a generational shift to younger leaders and party cannot just count on the Gandhi's the deliver the votes. I would also push for alliances with TMC in WB, DMK in TN, BJD in Orissa, try to go for a grand alliance of RJD JD(U) and INC in Bihar, alliance with AUDF in Assam, alliance with AAP in Delhi/Punjab/Harayana, alliance with BSP in MP/Rajasthan/Chattisgrah, andalliance with JD(S) in Karnataka. There are no easy options in UP. The best I can think of is alliance with BSP but that is fraught with great danger.
It seems they did do some of the things I mentioned. In fact I explicitly referred to what was necessary in Bihar as a "grand alliance." The news phase is what sort of alliances can be formed in WB TN and Assam for next year.
In WB the slope of the BJP seems to be going downward. In fact at this stage it will either be AITC + INC vs BJP vs Left Front or Left Front + INC vs AITC vs BJP. I guess it can be also a 4 way battle. There are two factions in INC. One faction says that BJP is finished in WB anyway so there should be a grand alliance of INC and Left Front to take on AITC. Another factions says it is key to keep AITC away from BJP so the best way is to be a junior partner of AITC. Besides AITC can be helpful in places like Assam. Both AITC and Left Front are also trying to get JD(U) and RJD on their side by trying to get the Nitish Kumar magic to rub off on themselves. it seems that unless somehow the BJP can form an alliance with AITC which seems unlikley given the bad blood between AITC and Modi the NDA will be nowhere next year in WB Assembly elections.
In Assam the state is turning into a J&K. Lower Assam is like Kashmir. Parts of Lower Assam is already Muslim majority and the Muslim percentage of the population continues to surge. Upper Assam is like Jannu where it is still dominated by Assamese Hindus with some Muslim population. The Bodo regions are dominated by tribal which are like the Tibetian Buddhist region of Lakdh in J&K. In Lower Assam it is mostly AUDF vs INC with BJP having a chance if Hindu AGP voters tactically vote for BJP. In Upper Assam it is BJP vs INC vs AGP with an advantage for BJP IF AGP voters votes tactically for BJP In Bodoland it is BPF vs various anti-BPF forces. Both BPF and these anti-BPF forces can and could align with BJP or INC or even AGP. This time around it seems that BPF might go with BJP but this is not locked down yet. In theory INC wants tactical alliances with AUDF in Upper Assam to beat back BJP but AUDF will seek concessions in Lower Assam which INC might not want to give. The anti-BJP grand alliance the INC wants to form might be with AITC or AUDF or even AGP if AGP is desperate to avoid being wiped out by BJP as the Hindu Assamese party. The key to if BJP can repeat its amazing 2014 LS performance in LS election is if it still can get the AGP vote bloc to vote for BJP as THE anti-INC party. If AGP does well then BJP is sunk. If AUDF makes a real investment in Upper Assam it could also sink INC. The result will depend on these two factors.
Once again, very informative, thanks. What's expected to happen in Kerala?
