Colombian presidential election, June 17 2018

[BundouYMB]

Bogota is still only 33% in so Duque will fall further, probably to around 38% in the end. Hash, how do you think Fajardo's voters will split in the second round?

[BundouYMB]

One last poll:

Centro Estratégico Latinoamericano de Geopolítica: Duque 45.5, Petro 40 (Duque +5.5)

I want to believe the polls showing Petro close, but the more accurate pollsters from the first round are showing bigger leads for Duque. The closest poll from a pollster that was successful in round 1 is Cifras & Conceptos with Duque +9.

Notably however Centro Nacional de Consultoría showed Duque's lead shrinking from 20 points the previous week to 13 points this week. Taking this evidence collectively I'm inclined to simultaneously believe that Duque has a bigger lead but also that he's losing ground. I think Duque wins by around 8-10 points in the end.

[BundouYMB]

I did not include that last poll, because 'Celag' is practically a Petro internal: it is a left-wing think tank tied to Rafael Correa and Podemos -- which isn't to say that their work is without value, but their polls are definitely a bit loaded. Their last poll, a month before the first round, had Duque leading Petro by only 4%.

In the next few days, as I get back into my routine, I'll discuss the latest developments in the campaign and hopefully talk about the 'voto en blanco' and the main ideological/policy differences in this election.

Same story with Datexo, unfortunately. They also had Duque leading by only 4 before the first round.