Surprised there isn't more scientific analysis of this than an exit poll (not in this thread, but in general). We can literally look at precinct-level data for this election (as well as the last two) so we should have a pretty clear picture of the rural-urban divide.
- The following states had their self-described suburban voters vote at least as far to the right or further than their rural voters ... any ideas why? Here they are:
- Arizona
- Maine
- New Hampshire
- North Carolina
- South Carolina
Not sure on NC and SC.
Disproportionately rural black voters versus predominantly white (and Asian) suburban voters.
Regarding Arizona, I did run the precinct numbers for Maricopa County some months back for both the 2012 and 2016 US Presidential elections (As well as Pima County) and crunched the numbers by Municipality and posted some data on another thread....
https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=274404.msg5908060#msg5908060
Here are the breakdowns by City for 2012 and 2016, as well as the 2012 > 2016 swings....
YE's comment regarding the Native American population in rural areas is definitely a factor, not to mention there is actually a fairly significant rural Latino population as well within Arizona.
The core block of Republican support in Arizona has been in suburban and exurban areas around Phoenix (As well as parts of the City that are more suburban in nature perhaps than one might realize).
These are precisely the areas that swung hardest towards HRC in 2016, hence my observation that the trend lines are not looking good for 'Pubs in AZ in 2020, assuming that Trump is still their candidate.
This reminds me of the fact Dallas reaches north into
Denton County.
