CPRM, Pt 3: LA 11/6

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

In other news, Missouri's right-to-work law got struck down by 25 points.

Good riddance.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

WOAH. CMR only beating the Democrat by 0.4 in WA-05...

This was a realistic pickup months ago...

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

WOAH. CMR only beating the Democrat by 0.4 in WA-05...

FOR GOD'S SAKE

STOP WITH THE PRIMARY TURNOUT OBSESSION

ESPECIALLY IN SEATS WITH INCUMBENTS

A jungle primary isn’t something the incumbents can waltz through, they need their voters to turn out. This is not good for WA GOP.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

WOAH. CMR only beating the Democrat by 0.4 in WA-05...

FOR GOD'S SAKE

STOP WITH THE PRIMARY TURNOUT OBSESSION

ESPECIALLY IN SEATS WITH INCUMBENTS

The CA/WA top-two, high-turnout primaries are actually useful as a sort of large scale "poll" when you add up the Dem and Repub votes.  Certainly things can change by election day, but it's information worth paying attention to.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Tulsi is not a conservative. She is not a progressive either. She's an opportunist, who changes the color of her jacket depending on what's in fashion.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

So 2016 is looking like a one-time fluke GOP win rather than the new normal.

The GOP said that same thing after 2010, then Obama was re-elected. Careful.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Lynch is an FF and miles better than Briannu Wu. I'm glad Lynch won. It's a shame Capuano didn't.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

What does everyone have against Lynch?!

Anti-choice and anti-healthcare in a D+10 district...what would a generic Democrat not have against him?

"Anti-choice"

Every member of the MA delegation has a 100% score from NARAL in recent years, but that's not enough.  You can't have anything in your history that suggests you have any qualms about abortion at all.

I don't get what you're arguing here. The guy identifies as pro-life, and there were other years he had a 0% from NARAL.

My only point is that being "personally pro-life" and voting against abortion a decade ago is now enough to get you labeled "anti-choice" even if you've consistently supported abortion rights in your voting since then.  It's an indication of absolutist political expectations, which exist on the right as well - it's not enough to vote the right way, you have to exude enthusiasm, or you're the enemy.   

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I think it's fair to say that almost the entire IDC losing their seats over caucusing with Republicans for extra perks, pay and power is going to put the fear of god into current and future Democratic lawmakers, at least for a good long while, so probably no more traitor factions.

Nothing scares lawmakers quite like fear of losing their seat

True, though Savino (and of course Felder) will be empowered to continue supporting the Republicans.

Did Savino have an especially pathetic opponent? I'm surprised she won by such a wide margin. Felder isn't surprising, though.

Well Felder is going to do what Felder is going to do, but the rest, I don't think it is a given that they will just support Rs full-time or something. I think it's equally if not more possible that they try and regain the trust of their constituent Democrats so they don't face any more primary opponents, and that involves being model Democrats. Otherwise there is nothing stopping another wave of opponents in 2020 and beyond. And since these are safe D districts, they can't just switch to the Republican Party. They have a big incentive to stop this tomfoolery, regardless of how butthurt they may be over this.

Felder mainly backed the GOPers because that sent more $$ to his district. Since Democrats are very likely to take the NYS after the 2018 elections, he'll switch in order to bring home more bacon.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

The NYS dynamics are atypical. The GOP essentially wins many places because it is seen as a check on the political power of New York City. There is also deeply entrenched incumbents with cross-party popularity (Robach, for example).