🇩🇪 German elections (federal & EU level)

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

When is vote counting likely to be finished?

You can see the districts, that are fully counted, her:
https://bundeswahlleiter.de/bundestagswahlen/2021/ergebnisse/ergebniseingaenge.html

Most should be counted by midnight CEST, but some could hold out until early in the morning, especially in Berlin, because reasons.

Danke!
This link will come in handy.
Any reason why Bavaria is coming in first?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

The only real Rio Grande comparison that may be made is the SPD's seeming decline in Munich?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

CSU won München-Ost by a margin of 11 per cent over the greens. The Bundestag is going to explode, because of the compensation seats.

How would the Bundestag going down to 250 direct seats impact future elections?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

CSU won München-Ost by a margin of 11 per cent over the greens. The Bundestag is going to explode, because of the compensation seats.

How would the Bundestag going down to 250 direct seats impact future elections?

Less propability of overhang seats and though less compensation seats. The seat number of the Bundestag would probably go down. On the other hand, there would be more nivellation of local patterns, because of bigger districts.

Do you mean "levelling out" (a.k.a become more stable)?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

144: Unna I is an SPD hold, with an increased plurality from 2017.
How good is this for the Social Democrats?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Any chance the free voters enter? Do they need to be at 5% nationally or in one state?

It is basically impossible. They would need 3 direct seats (which in practice would be in Bavaria), or 5% nationally, and they are not really close to either.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

So if a party finishes below 5% but gets the 3 FPTP seats, they won’t enter parliament with solely those 3 seats but all of the seats due to them based on their "Zweistimmen" vote share (in addition to FPTP seats), correct? Or is there another threshold then (e.g. party needs both 3 FPTP seats and 3% on the second question)? I guess Yes/No, but a confirmation would be nice.

What Alcibiades said.
Also it's worth noting that in 2002 you have a case of a party getting into the Bundestag without reaching 5%. The PDS fell below 5% but won 2 direct seats. Had it won one more it would have gotten its full allotment, but because it didn't, it only had 2 seats.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

How many of the CDU losses so far are not open seats?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Anyone else noticing the SPD doing better in Lower Saxony in terms of direct seats?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Anyone else noticing the SPD doing better in Lower Saxony?

I think, SPD doing better in their traditionally strong reagins in the north and west was largely expected.

Ah, that would make sense.
Getting 2002 vibes.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Currently walking home drunk with a currywurst, AMA

What was the mood like at the party you went to?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

CDU hold my constituency of Stuttgart II, which I did not expect. Despite a dismal showing in the Second Vote. Sad because both the SPD and Green candidates were great, just the left doesn't seem to be as good at voting tactically as the right is. Especially noticeable in Bavaria, where CSU are going to win 45/46 seats including all but one in Munich, which I don't think anyone saw coming.

Does it matter what constituency results are under MMP?

It is very relevant to the size of the legislature, under the German version of MMP anyway.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Meanwhile the exits showed Greens liked Stoplight but hated Jamaica, and vice versa for the the FDP.

Not exactly. They showed the FDP vote to be leery of (sod it) 'Lithuania', but the 'Green' vote to loathe Jamaica.

Jamaica sounds like a great way for the Green vote to be halved in the next election.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Yes, this is a real noble running as a MLPD candidate. She won 413 votes in Gotha-Ilm Kreis.

The Red Junker.

Die Rot Junker.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Die Linke has won its first official direct mandate:
Sören Pellmann could retain his constituency Leipzig II.

This was expected for a while, but it's good for Die Linke that this is now becoming official.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

A thought: does reducing the number of direct mandates to 250 make it significantly easier for Die Linke to end up with a seat count in the single digits in a future Bundestag election?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Official: SPD gain Vorpommern-Rügen – Vorpommern-Greifswald I from CDU.

If I was Merkel and I was seeing my home Bundeslander going full SPD sweep, I would be disappointed too.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

There's a definite pattern of Green constituency victories in 'nice' smaller cities.

Could this be linked with inter-migration within Germany, on part of those below 30?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

There's a definite pattern of Green constituency victories in 'nice' smaller cities.

Could this be linked with inter-migration within Germany, on part of those below 30?

Most of them are univesity cities.

When you put it that way, it makes a ton of sense.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Isn't "Jamaica" (CDU-Greens-FDP) pretty much impossible?  Why would Greens support CDU?   They're a lot further from each other than FDP is from SPD.

Impossible is too strong a word for one of the only three viable governments, and especially since one of the three would only be pursued if all else fails. It would be better for the FDP to go with Jamaica, and the Greens overwhelmingly prefer Traffic Light. They both are skeptical of the alternative. But both can work with either option, if it is beneficial. Both types of government are in place in various states.

Now if this is a question of ideology, remember that the German greens are not a Scandinavian left-green party. That is just one part of their tent. The German greens are more middle-of-the-road, which is why they surged this election at the expense of the Union, and their biggest gains by percentage tended to come from well-off educated areas.

Is it too strong of a comparison to say that the closeness between Greens and SPD is sort of like between CDA and VVD?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Currently walking home drunk with a currywurst, AMA

What was the mood like at the party you went to?

The party organizers chose to put RBB, the regional public broadcaster for Berlin-Brandenburg, on the screen, who in turn chose to show the exit poll showing the CDU and SPD tied at 25% each. The CDU number came on first, there was dead silence, following by some clapping when the SPD number came on, and then once all the parties were on the screen, there was some more clapping but also most people were probably like, "Welp, long night ahead".

Also there was a muted reaction to the first Berlin exit poll showing the Greens ahead, even if there was some relief at the initial projection of a Green-SPD majority in Berlin.

However, as the night went on, and the SPD lead grew, the crowd would cheer when it showed the SPD pulling ahead both nationally and on the state level. I got a good video of the crowd going nuts at around 18.45 when they showed the SPD up to 26% nationwide. It was reposted on Insta stories by some SPD accounts, so not to brag, but i'm kind of a big deal around here 😏😏😏

Nice to see you had a nice time!
Were you able to bring your SPD party flag with you?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Statement from trafficlight party leaders expected very soon today. DPA is already reporting that SPD, Greens and FDP intend to start actual coalition talks next week.

When is Schulz likely to become chancellor? (educated guess on basis of what we know right now)

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Statement from trafficlight party leaders expected very soon today. DPA is already reporting that SPD, Greens and FDP intend to start actual coalition talks next week.

When is Schulz likely to become chancellor? (educated guess on basis of what we know right now)

Actual coalition negotations are expected to begin next week. That will certainly last three or four weeks and afterwards all three parties need internal approval. The Greens will definitely issue a referendum among members, perhaps the SPD as well. FDP will most likely hold a party convention. So all in all, if things go smoothly, the new government could take office in December, just before christmas.

So there is a 90% chance or so Merkel becomes longest serving Chancellor of post-WWII Germany?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

So Merkel is set to break the record after all?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

New AfD record high dropped.

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1664937233969758208

Say you had a federal election with this sort of result. What is the most likely coalition?