2017 Virginia HoD Thread

[Nyvin]

So it's 50/50?

Damn I predicted the Ds would take the HOD last night.

Alright.

Could change, recounts are weird....

In any event DDHQ is confident in HD 68 and have projected it as the 15th D gain. It still could go to a recount, but the Dems look to emerge victorious due to a couple hundred vote lead. This makes it 49-47 D advantage, with 4 seats outstanding.

Manoli Loupassi conceded, so it looks like only four are going to a recount.

So Democrats have 49 seats locked up and potentially as many as 53?

Yes.

The only districts to go to recount are 27, 28, 40, and 94.

District 84 went to GOP.   68 and 85 went to Dems.

[Nyvin]

Posted in the other thread but relevant:

“Welcome to Venezuela,” Findlay (Executive Director for the RPV)said afterward. “This is how elections happen in Venezuela, Soviet Russia and now the commonwealth of Virginia. We don’t like the winners, we’re gonna have a new election.”

https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/virginia-politics/va-holds-off-certifying-tight-house-race-amid-new-claims-of-ballot-mix-ups/2017/11/20/780bf2a6-ce12-11e7-9d3a-bcbe2af58c3a_story.html

--

Also, a background on Cole (district affected by the misassigned ballot screwup) includes bathroom bills and anti-"Mark of the Beast" human implant bills.

I'm sure he feels the same way about the recall elections in Nevada....

[Nyvin]

Posted in the other thread but relevant:

“Welcome to Venezuela,” Findlay (Executive Director for the RPV)said afterward. “This is how elections happen in Venezuela, Soviet Russia and now the commonwealth of Virginia. We don’t like the winners, we’re gonna have a new election.”

https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/virginia-politics/va-holds-off-certifying-tight-house-race-amid-new-claims-of-ballot-mix-ups/2017/11/20/780bf2a6-ce12-11e7-9d3a-bcbe2af58c3a_story.html

--

Also, a background on Cole (district affected by the misassigned ballot screwup) includes bathroom bills and anti-"Mark of the Beast" human implant bills.

I'm sure he feels the same way about the recall elections in Nevada....

I don't see how the situations are comparable. One is attempting to institute a re-do election by invalidating the existence of the regularly scheduled election, while one is acknowledging the legitimacy both of the regularly scheduled election as well as of the recall laws in Nevada specifying that with a certain number of signatures recall elections can be triggered.

Like aren't the Nevada recall attempts very similar to what happened with Scott Walker in Wisconsin?

What you described, verbatim, is almost exactly what the RPV guy described in his speech about not liking the election results so they have a new election.   How is that not exactly what is happening in Nevada?

[Nyvin]

Posted in the other thread but relevant:

“Welcome to Venezuela,” Findlay (Executive Director for the RPV)said afterward. “This is how elections happen in Venezuela, Soviet Russia and now the commonwealth of Virginia. We don’t like the winners, we’re gonna have a new election.”

https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/virginia-politics/va-holds-off-certifying-tight-house-race-amid-new-claims-of-ballot-mix-ups/2017/11/20/780bf2a6-ce12-11e7-9d3a-bcbe2af58c3a_story.html

--

Also, a background on Cole (district affected by the misassigned ballot screwup) includes bathroom bills and anti-"Mark of the Beast" human implant bills.

I'm sure he feels the same way about the recall elections in Nevada....

I don't see how the situations are comparable. One is attempting to institute a re-do election by invalidating the existence of the regularly scheduled election, while one is acknowledging the legitimacy both of the regularly scheduled election as well as of the recall laws in Nevada specifying that with a certain number of signatures recall elections can be triggered.

Like aren't the Nevada recall attempts very similar to what happened with Scott Walker in Wisconsin?

What you described, verbatim, is almost exactly what the RPV guy described in his speech about not liking the election results so they have a new election.   How is that not exactly what is happening in Nevada?

No, it isn't.

Having a new election after a significant period of time and a legal recall process is far different from attempting to delegitimize an election, block its' certification, and hold a new one. For starters, one option is allowed in most states, while the other is a tool generally employed by authoritarian governments.

Again, the Nevada recall elections are different from the Scott Walker case how? The Virginia elections are analogous to either how?

I never mentioned Scott Walker.   It's the RPV guy calling out do overs for elections.   I think recalls of any kind should be done away with unless there's a legit felony going on.

If anything I find the Virginia case to be more legit due to the Nov election having flaws discovered about it and the results still not being certified, while in Nevada they're literally just doing the recall because "we don't like them" and nothing else, while the election has already been certified as valid.

[Nyvin]

The draw a name out of a bowl thing will only be a formality,  neither candidate will accept the outcome.

[Nyvin]

what an effing cuck

While everyone was going bonkers over the wave that crashed into the eastern seaboard, krazen secluded himself in the special/local elections thread rooting for a Republican state Supreme Court candidate in Pennsylvania who ended up winning a statewide race by around ~4% (iirc), keeping the court's balance 5 - 2 (D).

Krazen loves to play cheerleader for Republicans and he'll be the first guy there to rub it in if they win, but he's a ghost when they lose. I think he's basically the political version of those overly-aggressive and obsessive sports fans who would rather their team cheat than be branded losers.

Yep,  Krazen always has his GOP PomPoms ready with all the cheers and jumping.

[Nyvin]

The R gerrymander in NoVA is pretty much useless nowadays anyway.  

This is exactly the area where Dems would need to win in to get a majority in 2019 (That and HD-40).

Here's the R-held districts that I think could be the most affected:

HD-27:  50.9% Northam - 47.6% Gillespie

HD-62: 49.5% - 49.4%

HD-76: 49.8% - 49.2%  

HD-83: 50.3% - 48.3%

HD-84: 52.1% - 46.7%

HD-91: 47.3 - 51.5%

HD-91: 56% - 42.7%

HD-100: 52.7 - 46.3%

Why the Republicans hold a 56% Northam district I guess I'll never know.

These on top of Tim Hugo's NoVA seat that went 54.7% Northam should make the HoD a breeze for the Democrats next year.

[Nyvin]

This lawsuit is the final nail in the VAGOP coffin. There is no way they can come back from this, and even without the lawsuit, its very likely that the Dems would still get a trifecta. The bench is now weak and the GOP are isolated in the west and center, self packing themselves. The Dems will have redistricting power in 2020, and the GOP will not be saved.

This is exactly why I think that Republicans in the General Assembly will agree to an independent redistricting commission (inspired by One Virginia 2021), probably next year.  

There's nothing like staring into the abyss to concentrate the mind.....

I'd almost be against an independent commission in Virginia anymore.   At least until Texas/North Carolina adopt something similar.

[Nyvin]

Is there even a way to gerrymander California for more seats?
With the collapse of Orange county Republicans the state has become a natural gerrymander. 

Yes, pretty easily.   Especially all the marginal seats like CA-10, CA-25, CA-39, and CA-49.   They're literally right next door to Dem vote sinks.   

[Nyvin]

Dems only need 2 in the VA house, 1 in the Senate so they probably get it in 2019. They would be stupid to agree to a commission at this point. Roberts ending commissions would make NJ, CA, WA subject to Dem gerrymanders and AZ is rapidly trending toward tossup territory that could lean D soon enough anyway. A Governor's veto pen is enough to make PA, FL, MI drawn by the courts instead of the GOP as well.

Yeah it’s definitely not in Republicans’ interest for SCOTUS to outlaw redistricting commissions. It would be ironic too since it would be a result of Republicans’ incessant bitching about the Arizona map. “Okay, you don’t like the commissions that drew you several swing seats in Arizona? Okay, here’s a 50D-3R California map!”

Also, going by 2016 numbers, the Arizona commission map creates AT MOST one extra swing district (AZ-1), since AZ-2 and AZ-9 have trended dem so much since 2010.

[Nyvin]

Dems only need 2 in the VA house, 1 in the Senate so they probably get it in 2019. They would be stupid to agree to a commission at this point. Roberts ending commissions would make NJ, CA, WA subject to Dem gerrymanders and AZ is rapidly trending toward tossup territory that could lean D soon enough anyway. A Governor's veto pen is enough to make PA, FL, MI drawn by the courts instead of the GOP as well.

It doesnt help that the GOP only has the advantage in the state legislature due to Rs in Clinton suburbs. If all the Rs in the suburbs were replaced by Ds, then the house would be tied, allowing a map more fair for Dems.

Dems hold a lot of very Trumpy territory in the state House though

Not really.  The only district that the dems hold that Trump won (that I can tell) is HD-85.   And that was a measily 50.7% Trump win.