2018 Congressional Recruitment/Fundraising/Ratings Megathread v2

[Nyvin]

Districts where the top Democrat outraised the top Republican, had more Cash on Hand, did both, or came within $100K:



Some notable competitive districts missing from this chart:

CA-10, CA-21, IL-06, GA-06, MN-03, PA-01, VA-10, WA-08.

I don't think Democrats win VA-10 or WA-08. I think there are more Republican districts that are way easier than those two, highly expensive markets with strong, moderate GOP candidates. It simply would make more sense for democrats to target weak incumbents in cheap media markets even if they are nominally more R in regards to CPVI.

Comstock is not a moderate.

[Nyvin]

I think the DKE ratings are the most Republican favored I've seen yet. 

[Nyvin]

https://twitter.com/kkondik/status/1012119865124118529

Comstock is the only incumbent under "Lean Dem" :-)

[Nyvin]

https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1028792858197803013

Wow, excellent! Usually R registration is more pronounced in FL, even with the youth, but being in the lead, and having a likely lead among the others is great.

Nevertheless, most of the people prefer "Other". What can be interpreted as "f**k you, BOTH parties"))))))

"Other" in Florida is actually associated more with minority races other than African Americans.

[Nyvin]

NRCC is triaging Tarkanian in NV-3.

https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/national-republicans-abandon-tarkanian-go-all-in-for-hardy

Worth noting NV-3 is actually the more Republican-leaning of Nevada's two swing seats.

[Nyvin]

https://twitter.com/MediumBuying/status/1050741175651590145

Ughhhhh

Literally lighting money on fire.

Such incompetence among the people in the DCCC who made this choice needs to result those people losing their jobs.

Going into a tossup race is NOT lighting money on fire.

This is Safe R, not "tossup".

surprised to see that you arent optimistic on this race. Ben McAdams has been polling close to Mia Love, and there is no reason to just abandon a winnable seat. SLC has been trending D for a while, and now takes up a majority of the district, this is winnable.

Isn't SLC in UT-2?  UT-4 is the southern part of the county.

[Nyvin]

https://twitter.com/MediumBuying/status/1050741175651590145

Ughhhhh

Literally lighting money on fire.

Such incompetence among the people in the DCCC who made this choice needs to result those people losing their jobs.

Going into a tossup race is NOT lighting money on fire.

This is Safe R, not "tossup".

surprised to see that you arent optimistic on this race. Ben McAdams has been polling close to Mia Love, and there is no reason to just abandon a winnable seat. SLC has been trending D for a while, and now takes up a majority of the district, this is winnable.

Isn't SLC in UT-2?  UT-4 is the southern part of the county.

SLC is in 3 districts, a gerrymander that got rid of a likely D seat. But its primarily in the 4th, which is in the center. You have them switched up, the 2nd is the southern one.

Oh...duh, I thought you meant Salt Lake "City", not county.