2018 Congressional Generic Ballot/House Polls Megathread 2 - no debates please

[Nyvin]

NY-19 (DCCC):

Delgado (D) 49
Faso (R-inc) 42

545 LV, June 27-28 (MoE: 4.2%)

http://www.rollcall.com/news/politics/dccc-poll-new-york

If this and the NC-9 poll are anything remotely accurate then a Dem House Majority is pretty much inevitable.

[Nyvin]

https://twitter.com/politico/status/1018857860527280130

Uh, this is big.

Good ...flipping the Governorship will allow the Dems to steal McCains Senate seat.

I think McCain would resign before Ducey got sworn in, even considering Arizona's same-party appointment laws.

Even if we got a dem Gubna though, wouldn't they have to appoint a Republican if McCain's seat opens up?

Yes, Republican Party would get to pick 3 choices and the Governor would get to pick from that list. Personally, this is my favorite way for Senatorial replacements.

If the AZ legislature flips...they can just change the law and let the governor appoint who he wants

I think the optics of that would be terrible, especially for a replacement for someone as respected (deservedly or not) as McCain.

Agreed, it'd look like a greedy power grab.

[Nyvin]

It would seem like the Trump strategy of just enthusing the Republican (Trump) base voters is really falling flat. 

[Nyvin]

Apparently GOP insiders are seeing bluecwave like numbers in their polling https://talkingpointsmemo.com/dc/100-days-from-the-elections-dems-hold-upper-hand-in-fight-for-house-control

This article seemed like it was designed by scientists to get me as giddy as possible.

The only thing that annoys me is the immediate thought after reading that of how disadvantaged Democrats are in the states that even a large wave will likely only lead to divided state governments in maybe a dozen states, with a few trifectas in places that we should have consolidated power in a while ago. Not to mention that we'll probably still have Republican Governors in a number of blue states.

Getting to a place where Democrats are at least at parity with Republicans in the states or more on a regular basis, and not just after waves, is probably going to take decades, absent a massive reshuffling of the political landscape.

It’ll require Democrats being competitive in rural areas again honestly.

Suburbs will do. See Virginia.

Virginia is an execption, not a rule. Ohio/Wisconsin subs for example are still solidly Rep.

If Ohio and Wisconsin's suburbs trend Dem, they'd vote Dem statewide too.   

Rural areas are just too small on their own, and getting smaller anyway.

[Nyvin]

Yeah, the fact that people had been proclaiming a Blue Wave from about the time of the Healthcare fiasco last year just shows how overconfident Dems have been. Haven't we learned from 2010/2014 that Election Day always turns against the Dems (and the polls) in a huge way? 

Stop for a moment and think about this.   What force could possibly make this statement accurate?  Do people suddenly stop and think "well, it's a midterm, time to start hating the Democrats again!"

Why would "every midterm" turn against the Democrats?   You really think this is even possible?

[Nyvin]

Republicans won the house vote by 14 in 2016 and over 20 in 2014, for comparison.

It's notable that the two way vote is 49% D - 43% R.   So much for the story of libertarian votes being nothing but votes torn from Republicans cold dead hands.

[Nyvin]

https://twitter.com/mmurraypolitics/status/1037446403021320197

Republicans won the house vote by 14 in 2016 and over 20 in 2014, for comparison.

As Indiana is R+9 in PVI, this shows that the nation is at D+4...not enough for a wave.

I don't think that's how it works, Republicans won Indiana's House elections in 2016 by 14.67%.  If right now it's R+5 then that's quite a swing.   I don't think they're comparing it to any national margin when they say R+5.

[Nyvin]

Siena poll for MN-3 shows Phillips +9 over Paulsen.