Texas 2020 House Apportioment

[Nyvin]

DFW could be a complete disaster for the GOP later in the decade, in a D-wave year it's easy to see Democrats picking up 12-13 seats there.   I think it would've been smarter to concede a D sink in Denton and a stronger D sink in Collin, but maybe the Republicans thought a 10 seat majority is already too small?

Assuming the three vulnerable RGV seats flip to R's their floor is probably 62 seats and a majority is 76 so DFW could be right on the cusp of everything they need for a majority.

Those two Bell County districts aren't really all that secure either for the GOP, and northern Bexar actually has good trends for Democrats too so that's another 2 seats that R's hold.

For the Republicans to make up ground I don't see much beyond the three narrow RGV seats (37, 74, 80),  maybe they can flip the Corpus Christi district??   Also Democrats currently hold HD-52 in Williamson, but that's been a competitive seat for a while and has pretty strong D trends.

For the state house, Republicans just can't escape from the fact that Texas is just a very urban state overall.