Dying before election day. Probably a 20% chance at least that this happens.
A 77 year old male has less than a 5% chance of dying in a year, according to the Social Security Administration. And, that includes those who have a terminal diagnosis. So, no, a slightly overweight 77 year old in otherwise generally decent health doesn't have anywhere near a 20% chance of dying in a 6 month period.
The chance is reasonably strong that both Trump and Biden are still alive four years from today.
To answer the original question, it's the legal stuff turning up something that's actually a game changer for swing voters.
