State Legislature Special Election Mega Thread

[Ebsy]

Information I have rounded up on HD 44 tonight:

The Republican candidate is Robert “Bobby O” Olszewski. The Democrat is Eddy Dominguez, who will appear as Paul Chandler on some ballots. Democrats appear to have ponied up some money and made a late push for the early vote and election day GOTV, but Republicans have outspent Democrats by a lot and have a big lead in the 2,117 early votes. Republicans account for 1,114 (53%) while Democrats account for 708 (33%). There are another 5,893 absentee ballots cast, for which we do not have partisanship data, and then however many people vote on election day, which should be heavily democratic. Polls close in an hour and a half at 7 EDT.

[Ebsy]

Dominguez will need to make up the difference with vote by mail and election day votes.

[Ebsy]

Now 6,920 to 5,506 in favor of the Republican.

Edit: I think that might be it?

[Ebsy]

Certainly the fastest we've ever gotten to 100% reporting.

[Ebsy]

A predictable disappointment, but a disappointment nonetheless.

[Ebsy]

Breakdown by vote type. Note that Dominguez won the election day vote.

[Ebsy]

For a preview of what is coming up, on October 14 there will be two Louisiana State House of Representatives specials in the Democratic held 58th and Republican held 77. Both are safe seats.

Next Tuesday, October 17, there will be a special election in the Massachusetts State Senate Bristol and Norfolk District. This is a safe Democratic district.

[Ebsy]

He's a black statewide candidate in Louisiana. What exactly did you expect?

[Ebsy]

[Ebsy]

In addition to the race in the MO-97th on February 6th, there will be a race in the 144th that could be a sleeper. Democrats have netted a strong candidate in the incumbent Presiding Commissioner of Iron County Jim Scaggs. While clearly the Republicans are still favored in this race, at the county level Southeast Missouri can be awfully Democratic, so we could have a real race next year.

https://www.myironcountynews.com/articles/2017/10/13/scaggs-be-democrat-candidate-february-6-special-election

Of course the other special in 129th the Dems don't have a chance in.

The nearby 118 covering parts of the Lead Belt is still represented by a Democrat and Skaggs is a good recruit, so an upset is definitely in the cards.

[Ebsy]

NH HD Strafford 13 is coming up Tuesday. This is a safe democratic seat, which went 67-26 for Clinton and 69-29 for Obama in 2012.

Candidates:
Casey Conley (Dem)
Guy J. Eaton (GOP)
Brian Shields (Libertarian)

[Ebsy]

Very impressive margin for the Democrat. Republicans hold on the New Hampshire legislature is looking incredibly in doubt.

[Ebsy]

Goodness gracious, there's a lot of vacancies in the Missouri legislature this year!
As things stand now, the vacancies are:
Senate district 8
House district 23
House district 39
House district 97
House district 129
House district 144
House district 151

Earlier this year there was a vacancy in Senate-28 and House-50.
Why the heck do so many legislators resign rather than stay in their seats for another 1.25-1.5years? Senate district 28 and house district 129 are understandable, but why do all these other people keep resigning in mid-term??

Rant over.

A lot of Republicans are getting appointed to different commissions as reward for finally retaking the governor's mansion.

I am writing up a post on the upcoming races in 2 weeks, but I think due to length, I am going to split it up between the safe races and those that should be interesting to watch.

[Ebsy]

To start it off, this is the list of all the Safe seats that will be up in 2 weeks. Not saying upsets are impossible, but they are certainly unlikely.

Georgia HD 4

This seat went for Trump, 64-33. Likely a safe Republican seat.

Peter Pociask (DEM)
Beau Patton (GOP)
Eddie Caldwell (GOP)
Kasey Carpenter. (GOP)

Georgia HD 26

This seat went for Trump,78-18. Likely a safe Republican seat.

Steve Smith (DEM)
Marc Morris (GOP)
Tina Trent. (GOP)

Georgia HD 42

Voters here preferred Clinton 69 to Trump 27. Stacey Evans (DEM) vacated this sat to run for governor. Safe Democratic. Teri Anulewicz (DEM) was the only candidate to file here.

Georgia HD 60

This seat went 91-7 for Clinton Safe Democratic.

De'Andre S. Pickett (DEM)
Kim Schofield (DEM)
Sparkle Adams (DEM)

Georgia HD 89

This seat went Clinton 91, Trump 6 in 2016. This seat is vacant following Stacey Abrams (DEM) resigning to run for governor. Safe Democratic.

Bee Nguyen (DEM)
David Abbott (DEM)
Monique Keane (DEM)
Sachin Varghese (DEM)

Georgia SD 39

This seat preferred Clinton 85-12. Democrat Vincent Fort vacated this seat to run for Mayor of Atlanta. Safe Democratic.

Elijah Tutt (DEM)
Linda Pritchett (DEM)
Marckeith DeJesus (DEM)
Nikema Williams (DEM)
Nick Carlson (GOP)

MA HD Berkshire 1

This seat went Clinton 65, Trump 29 in 2016 and Obama 72, Romney 25 in 2012. It is vacant following the incumbent’s, Gailanne Cariddi, death from cancer. Safe Democratic.

Barrett (DEM)
Canning (GOP)

MA HD Essex 3

This seat went Clinton 55-39 in 2016 and Obama 58-40 in 2012. The previous incumbent, Brian Dempsey, had not faced a GOP challenger in some time. I doubt Essex County is going to fruitful for GOP challengers in this environment, so Likely Democratic.

Vargas (DEM)
Toohey (GOP)

Michigan HD 1

This seat went for Clinton 74-23 and Obama 76-24. Vacant following a criminal conviction of the incumbent. Safe Democratic.

Yancey (DEM)
Corcoran (GOP)
Gregory Creswell (LIB)

MO HD 23

This seat went Clinton 89-8 and Obama 94-6. Safe Democratic.

Barbara Anne Washington (DEM)
David Martin (GOP)
Daniel Trott (GRE)


MO HD 151

Trump won this seat 83-14, an improvement on Romney 73-25. Safe Republican.

Curtis Clark (DEM)
Herman Morse (GOP)
Rick Vandeven (LIB)

MS HD 38

Presidential election data is not available, but this is a safe Democratic district.

Narissa Bradford (NP)
Cheikh Taylor (NP)
Lisa Wynn (NP)

MS HD 54

Presidential election data is not available, but this is a safe Republican district.

Joe Bonelli (NP)
Randy Easterling (NP)
Kevin Ford (NP)

NY AD 27

This seat in Queens went Clinton 65-32 in 2016 and Obama 66-33 in 2012. Daniel Rosenthal (DEM) is running unopposed. Safe Democratic.

NY AD 71

This upper Manhattan seat went Clinton 93, Trump 5 and Obama 94, Romney 5. Alfred Taylor (DEM, WF) is running unopposed. Safe Democratic.

NY SD 26

This seat went Clinton 84-12, Obama 83-16. Safe Democratic.

Brian Kavanagh (DEM, WF)
Analicia Alexander (GOP)

NH HD Sullivan 1

This reliably Democratic seat went Clinton 59, Trump 37 in 2016. and Obama 59, Romney 40 in 2012. Considering the recent New Hampshire special elections, Likely Democratic.

Sullivan (DEM)
Drye (GOP)

SC HD 113

This heavily minority seat north of Charleston preferred Clinton 67-28 and Obama 73-26. Safe Democratic.

Marvin Pendarvis (DEM)
Theron Sandy II (GOP)

WA HD 7

Washington’s seats State House and State Senate seats have coterminous boundaries. This seat went for Trump 63-29, an improvement on Romney 61-36 win. This seat is vacant following the appointment of Shelly Short (GOP) to SD 7, while Maycumber was appointed to this seat. Maycumber got 66% in the first round. Safe Republican.

Susan Swanson (DEM)
(I) Jacquelin Maycumber (GOP)

WA SD 7

See above. Short got 67% in the first round. Safe Republican.

Karen Hardy (DEM)
(I) Shelly Short (GOP)

WA SD 37

This heavily Democratic seat swung to Clinton 87-8 compared to Obama 86-11. Rebecca Saldaña (DEM) is running unopposed. Safe Democratic.

WA HD 48

This seat is vacant following the appointment of Patty Kuderer to SD 48. It swung hard to Clinton 68-25 compared to Obama’s 62-36 victory. Slatter got 77% in the first round. Safe Democratic.

(I) Slatter (DEM)
Dougherty (LIB)

WA SD 48

See above. Kuderer got 62% in the first round. Safe Democratic.

(I)Kuderer (DEM)
Darnell (LIB)

[Ebsy]

And now, the 10 competitive races. 9 of these are Republican seats and 1 is a Democratic seat. Democrats look likely to win state Senate seats in Georgia and Washington and I would not be surprised if they won two or three of the other races here, and are likely favored to defend their one vulnerable seat in Michigan. However, without further ado:

Georgia HD 117

Both this district and 119 contain about a quarter of Athens as well as some of the surrounding rural areas. This seat was a very close Trump 49, Clinton 46 in 2016. The previous incumbent, Regina Quick (GOP) had not faced general election opposition in some time. I’m rating it a Toss Up.

Deborah Gonzalez (DEM)
Houston Gaines (GOP)

Georgia HD 119

Another Athens seat that Trump won 51-44. Will likely result in a runoff between the Democrat and one of the Republican candidates. Lean Republican.

Jonathan Wallace (DEM)
Lawton Lord (GOP)
Marcus A. Wiedower (GOP)
Steven Strickland (GOP)

Georgia SD 6

This district in the northern Atlanta suburbs swung to Clinton 55, Trump 40, and incumbent Hunter Hill (GOP) had a surprisingly close race, winning over Democrat Jaha Howard 52-48. Without the power of incumbency, Republicans will be hard pressed to hold this district. One factor is that there is an extremely crowded jungle primary, so there could be a wacky result. Lean Democratic.

Jaha Howard (DEM)
Jen Jordan (DEM)
Taos Wynn (DEM)
Charlie Fiveash (GOP)
Kathy Eichenblatt (GOP)
Leah Aldridge (GOP)
Leo Smith (GOP)
Matt Bentley (GOP)

ME HD 56

This Lisbon, Maine seat was a punishing Clinton 35, Trump 57, but was much closer in 2012, going Obama 40, Romney 47. This is definitely a stretch seat for Democrats, but they almost won it in 2012, losing it 52-47. Likely Republican.

Scott Gaiason (DEM)
Richard Mason (GOP)

Michigan HD 109

This seat takes in much of the Upper Peninsula of Michigan, including Marquette, and flipped from an Obama 53045 victory in 2012 to a Trump 49-45 victory in 2016. This is the only seat I can see Democrats potentially losing this year, and it should be an interesting bellwether for races in Michigan in 2018. The previous incumbent, John Kivela, won in a landslide, 66-34, in 2016. Lean Democratic.

Cambensy (DEM)
Rossway (GOP)
Wade Roberts (GRE)

MO SD 8

This race in the Kansas City suburbs on paper should not be competitive, having gone for Trump 58-37 and Romney 59-39. However, polling has shown the race close due to the presence of a Trump conservative with high name recognition on the ballot, and he might play spoiler in favor of the Democrat, Hillary Shields, over a member of GOP leadership in the Missouri House of Representative, Mike Cierpiot. Toss Up.

Hillary Shields (DEM)
Mike Cierpiot (GOP)
Jacob Turk (IND)

NH HD Hillsborough 15

This swingly seat went Trump 53-43, but was a much narrower Roney 51-48 victory in 2012.  Considering recent New Hampshire races, this is certainly going to be a good Democratic pick up opportunity. Last election, one Democrat and one Republican was elected, and the Republican, Steve Vaillancourt, died of a heart attack. Toss Up.

Connors (DEM)
MacArthur (GOP)

WA HD 31

I doubt this Trump 50-42, Romney 50-48 seat will end up being competitive in light of the first round results, but crazier things have happened. Vacant following the appointment of Fortunado (GOP) to SD 31. Irwin got 57% in the first round. Likely Republican.

Lowry (DEM)
(I)Irwin (GOP)

WA SD 31

See above. Fortunato got 58% in the first round. Likely Republican.

Rylands (DEM)
(I)Fortunato (GOP)

WA SD 45

The marquee race of the cycle, with the Republican party scrambling to hold on to their Senate majority in Washington with this brutal Clinton 65-28 and Obama 58-40 seat. Dino Rossi was appointed to this seat but decided against running for the seat in the special election, instead opting to run for the retiring Dave Reichert’s (GOP) seat. The Democrat, Dhingra, got 52% in the first round. Lean Democratic.

Dhingra (DEM)
Englund (GOP)

[Ebsy]

Great roundup Ebsy!

Thanks, I appreciate it.

[Ebsy]

When are the Missouri special elections?

There will be special elections in MO HD 97, 129, and 144 on February 6.

[Ebsy]

Yeah, really looking forward to some of those races as well.

Do the Republicans have a realistic chance of winning the Maine House District 56 seat? Gina Mason (R) won it by 16 (58-42) in 2016, but given how Democratic-friendly the electorate will be in 2017, I have my doubts.

Continuing the discussion from the other thread... I rated this Likely R, but it definitely has the chance of flipping in the current environment. One of the races that I have the most uncertainty about, honestly, so I would welcome any insights you might have,

[Ebsy]

Democrats are currently looking like they are going to pick up GA HD 117 and 119.

[Ebsy]

Republicans hold the Maine seat.

[Ebsy]

So we are up to 4 Democratic special election tonight, 11 for the year. Unprecedented gains.

[Ebsy]

So we are up to 4 Democratic special election tonight, 11 for the year. Unprecedented gains.

Is that 2 NH + 2 GA races?

1 NH HD and 3 GA (2 HD and 1 SD)

[Ebsy]

Now up to 5 for the night, 12 for the year.

[Ebsy]

Michigan HD 109 is an important race that could serve as a good indicator for control of the Michigan legislature next year. Very interested to see the result.

[Ebsy]

Michigan HD 109: Dem Hold

Cambensy wins with 61.5 percent. 8,735 - 5,465