How likely would you say are these election results in the 2020s?
The 2020 election: The Democrats nominate Elizabeth Warren, who won the nomination with a massive grassroots campaign. She manages to defeat Donald Trump, whose approval rating was below 40% on election day due to multiple scandals and a slowing economy. The Republican Party retains control of the senate, Democrats keep the House.
✓ Senator Elizabeth Warren (D-MA)/Governor Steve Bullock (D-MT): 289 EVs.; 49.8%President Donald Trump (R-NY)/Vice President Mike Pence (R-IN): 249 EVs.; 46.7%The Warren Administration and 2024: The Warren presidency started off with immediate battles over legislation, executive and judical nominees, as the GOP-controlled senate strongly opposes her policies and candidates. Ultimately, she manages to undo most of Trump's legacy by exeutive action. President Warren also replaced RGB and Stephen Breyer on SCOTUS, but had to nominate more moderate candidates to win senate approval. However, legislative successes are rare and by 2022, the economy slipped into recession. The GOP picks up the House in the midterms and keeps the senate, blocking any of Warren's agenda.
As the 2024 election approaches, a divided GOP field results into the nomination of FL Governor Ron DeSantis. Polls were neck-in-neck and a slowly improving economy gave the Warren campaign hope to hang on. But Warren has lost some of her appeal among progressive activists. A depressed turnout and youthful campaign by DeSantos leads to his victory, who can start govern with congressional majorities. For the first time since 2004, the GOP wins a narrow PV plurality.
✓ Governor DeSantis (R-FL)/Senator Joni Ernst (R-IA): ~ 295 EVs.; 48.9%President Elizabeth Warren (D-MA)/Vice President Steve Bullock (D-MT): ~240 EVs.; 48.6%The DeSantis Administration and 2028: Upon getting into office, President Ron DeSantis had high approvals. He passed a tax cut to stimulate the economy and didn't rescind some executive actions by Warren to protect the environment. But quitely, his administration starts to dismantle the welfare state to "balance the budget". DeSantis remains relatively popular over the first half of his term. With the GOP narrowly keeping te House, reelection initally looked likely. But by 2027, the economy starts tanking badly and the president seemed out of touch with the American people. He also got involved into an unpopular war.
In 2028, Democrats turned to former MI governor Gretchen Whitmer, who capitalized on DeSantis' unpopularity and benefited from changing demographics. The election turned out to be a realignment, with Dems making major gains in the Sun Belt and winning comfortable majorities in congress.
The 2028 election became the 3rd consecutive election with a sitting prez losing reelection. Following 3 two termers (Clinton, Bush and Obama), America had 3 one-termers (Trump, Warren and DeSantis).
✓ Former Governor Gretchen Whitmer (D-MI)/Senator Ben Ray Luján (D-NM): ~ 400 EVs.; 54.0%President Ron DeSantis (R-FL)/Vice President Joni Ernst (R-IA): ~ 135 EVs.; 44.7%
