SENATE/HOUSE RESULTS: IL, IN, KY, MI, MD, MO, OH, WV

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

Manchin destroyed what's-his-face. They need to call it.

are there any results coming in?

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

W/ 85% reporting Chandler's lead is down to about 500 votes. Will it reverse?

which race are we talking about? 

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

THEY CALLED MANCHIN!!!

up to Angle to save the night for the GOP

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

Coats will going to be in the upper 50s the whole way.  Not much surprise.

IL, CO, PA and WV so far (WA may follow).  Those are the blows for the GOP

IL, CO, PA?  have they been called?

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

25 of the Seats Republicans picked up plus Republican held seats in IL-10,WA-8 may likely go Democratic in 2012.

Based on what, 6.5% unemployment in 2012?  ....it outcome of the 2012 House races totally depends on the state of the 2012 race.  If the economy somewhat recovers and Obama thrashes Palin by 15, then, yes, these seats will switch back.  But if the economy is bad in 2012 (unemployment >8.5%) and Obama loses by 10 to someone like Pence, the GOP could easily pick up another 20 House seats in 2012.

Also, I think you're ignoring the geopolitical challenges Obama is more than likely to face in the next 24 months:  99% chance Iraq and Afghanistan will be basket-cases with the US coming home losers…>50% chance Pakistan falls...90% chance Israel will fights another war with Lebanon when the Hezbollah takes over (this is already baked in and is a done deal and is simply awaiting the Special Tribunal for Lebanon), which could easily spill over to involve Syria and Iran…99% chance Turkey will continue its lurch away from secular government and align itself more and more with Iran….and so on and so on.

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

Democrats are going to retain control of the US Senate in 2012.
Since the breakdown is going to be 53-47.  Republicans need to pick up 4 seats assuming Obama-D wins re-election.
Republicans are going to lose MA-Brown-R loses to a top tier DEM challenger. NV-look for Angle-R to challenge Ensign-R in the GOP primary. ME-Snowe-R gets teabagged.  -3R
Republicans need to win 7 Democratic held Seats in 2012.
They pick up NE,MO,MT if Rehberg-R runs. OH,VA,and WI-if OPEN are in the tossup collumn-Democratic GOTV is strong.

This is a joke, right?  Why would Angle, after losing to Reid, be nominated again?  And all Snowe has to do to be renominated and reelected is pivot slightly to the right and vote with the GOP to strike down Obamacare and extend the Bush tax cuts.  A slight pivot to the right coupled with the memory of Angle-ODonnell-Miller will keep Snowe from melting.

If unemployment remains >8.5%, expect a slew of Dem retirements in the red states plus Dem loses in the blue states.  Also, expect the GOP to field a MUCH stronger group of candidates than they did in 2010.

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

25 of the Seats Republicans picked up plus Republican held seats in IL-10,WA-8 may likely go Democratic in 2012.

Also, I think you're ignoring the geopolitical challenges Obama is more than likely to face in the next 24 months:  99% chance Iraq and Afghanistan will be basket-cases with the US coming home losers…>50% chance Pakistan falls...90% chance Israel will fights another war with Lebanon when the Hezbollah takes over (this is already baked in and is a done deal and is simply awaiting the Special Tribunal for Lebanon), which could easily spill over to involve Syria and Iran…99% chance Turkey will continue its lurch away from secular government and align itself more and more with Iran….and so on and so on.

You're overestimating the degree to which most voters in the US care about the Middle East. In this election cycle, they were basically ignored. Iraq is already a basket case but because there are a bit less bombings than a few years ago the US army is abandoning the country, to general approval of the US public. As for Afghanistan, the Republicans will hardly attack him for his current aggressive policy there and if a proper narrative of decreased violence is made, an eventual withdrawal will be met with support.

1)   Middle east was not an issue in 2010 because the sides have simply been in a period of rearming for the next war.
2)   It’s not going to make Obama look good when Iran owns Iraq and the Taliban owns Afghanistan and nuclear-armed Pakistan.  Believe it or not, the majority of America will care, even if you don’t.

There is no reason that an Israeli-Lebanon war should impact the Obama administration negatively. The last such war had little impact on US politics.

This statement is simply ignorant on many levels.  Ignorant of the fact the last Israeli-Lebanese war was not a full-scale war, but simply a dry run.  Ignorant of the fact a Hezbollah takeover of Lebanon will start a full-scale war between Lebanon and Israel.  Ignorant of the fact Israel has openly threatened to bomb Damascus if Hezbollah takes over Lebanon.  Ignorant of the fact Saudi Arabia has called on the Lebanese PM to resign.  Ignorant of the fact it would most likely be a full scale war between Israel and Lebanon/Syria/Hezbollah/Hamas/PA/Iran, with Turkey a possible participant siding with the Muslims.
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And the comment about Turkey is ridiculous. Obama, like Bush wants to use Turkey against the EU and Russia and whatever way Turkey moves will not change this.

Ignorant of the news of the past year…unless, of course, you think it was Obama who used Turkey to attempt to break Israel’s naval blockade of Gaza…also, maybe you’d like to comment on Turkey removing Iran this week from it’s Red Book, while at the same time adding Israel to the Red Book.  Was that also a ploy of Obama?  It’s Turkey that is using the US and EU to gain legitimacy for the AKP while at the same time weakening the role of it traditionally secular military.  You need to back up exactly 8 years from  today and trace the steps of the AKP, because it is from that date the US lost the ability to “use” Turkey.  Since then, the worm has turned.

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In any case, the economy will probably be the leading election in the next election as well and will drive foreign policy to the sidelines.

Ignorant of the fact such a war would probably send the price of gasoline in the United States to over $5/gallon.  But, hey, don’t worry, I’m sure American public won’t notice that.