Election 2018 Open Thread - Part 1

[libertpaulian]

https://mobile.twitter.com/jerryiannelli/status/1061042273813778434

OK, this is getting 10 million kinds of ridiculous now.

[libertpaulian]

95k more like what we saw tonight from Maricopa would single handedly erase the deficit in the SOS race without even factoring in the rest of the D heavy Pima votes. Which has huge consequences in limiting Ducey climbing to the Senate and also getting a D in control of elections in 2020

Maricopa has 226,000 ballots uncounted.  

My main question...where are these ballots coming from?  Conservative areas?  Moderate swingy areas?  Liberal areas?

[libertpaulian]

When are we getting the next batch of Maricopa votes?  Are they dumping all 226K at once, or no?

[libertpaulian]

Mimi Walters is only up by 2,020 votes at the moment. 103,975-101,955.

She won 59-41 two years ago.  That's a crazy turnaround in two years.

[libertpaulian]

Kim is almost certainly going to lose.

Remember that poll showing her ahead by double digits?
Fun times.

Those polls were obvious bullsh**t having Trumps approval at even in a district he lost by 7

It seems that was a good way to tell whether a poll was junk or not. All those polls showing him evenly split in Missouri and Indiana - junk. All those polls showing him evenly split or positive in districts he lost or in Nevada/Arizona - junk.

I knew rohrabacher was doomed after that monmouth poll showing Putin at 50 and Rouda at 48 with trump at 54 approval. I was criticized for daring to unskew an obviously bullsh**t poll when Trumps approval there was -6 TOPS and thats generous. Its much better to look at polls in a national context and estimate what Trumps realistic approval should be looking at 538's trump approval for likely voters.  Here is the monmouth poll . https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/documents/monmouthpoll_ca_091818.pdf/

The only reason hurd survived this year was due to national dem laziness to notice the polls were absolute bullsh**t in hispanic areas. Thank god about that. Then again dems got to steal NJ 2nd in return.

Regarding TX-23, I'd honestly ask for a recount if I were Oritz-Jones.  The gap is way too narrow to take a chance at just conceding.

[libertpaulian]

Since Sinema is going to be the first bisexual senator, she's going to have the most credibility to answer the question "Who is the most attractive Senator"?

If she answers by saying "John Thune and Catherine Cortez-Masto," then we know she has good taste.

[libertpaulian]

Per the AZ Data Guru and the CNN maps, McSally gained a couple thousand votes today (so far).

[libertpaulian]

Per the AZ Data Guru and the CNN maps, McSally gained a couple thousand votes today (so far).

Problem for her is it came from her best counties where she needs bigger margins

Isn't there supposed to be a pro-McSally dump from Maricopa coming up?

[libertpaulian]

Per the AZ Data Guru and the CNN maps, McSally gained a couple thousand votes today (so far).

Problem for her is it came from her best counties where she needs bigger margins

Isn't there supposed to be a pro-McSally dump from Maricopa coming up?

Yes, but tomorrow. Maricopa has another pro-Sinema dump coming up at 7:00.

That should be worrying for the pro-Sinema crowd, given tomorrow's Mariciopa dump is bigger than today's.

[libertpaulian]

The Navajo batch from today scared me a bit they countered the trend we've been seeing of McSally doing worse with ballots later on. The ones out of that county have been trending more favorable to her by a huge margin. Yea its only one county but it shows such a abnormal trend is possible elsewhere.

Navajo has a high Mormon population, yet McSally is only up by mid-single digits.

[libertpaulian]

Maricopa time?

Yup!

[libertpaulian]

AZ-SEN and FL-SEN of course.

[libertpaulian]

Not a ton from McSally territory left:

https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1061794284427329537

I really don't understand why outlets aren't calling this race yet.

They probably want to be careful and wait for any potential conservative precincts of Maricopa that have yet to report.

[libertpaulian]

https://www.wsj.com/articles/who-lost-the-house-john-mccain-1541968422

Glad this dirtbag got thrown out.

Isn't this the same ***hole who was campaigning in the wrong district?

Also the guy who complained about not being allowed to call women sluts.

It is hard to see why he lost.

Most delicious part is he lost to a lesbian raising four sons together with her wife.

[libertpaulian]

https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1062113977197424640

Great news if you're on Team Sinema and/or Team Hobbs, especially given we haven't gotten all of the Pima results in yet.

[libertpaulian]

WaPo officially calls it.  Just got the alert on my phone.

[libertpaulian]

Pretty funny that in AZ, the Green Party candidate is named Angela Green ... and she‘s black.

What's significant about her being black? It would be weird if she were green-skinned, but the odds are very high she'd have been white if she weren't African-American, and what's interesting about that? Lots of Americans have last names which are colors: Green(e), Brown, Black, and White are common.

I think he means that it's that it's very uncommon to see non-whites in far-left movements like the Greens.

[libertpaulian]

Stanton passed 60% in AZ-9

The GOP didn't advertise here, right?