2018 interactive senate map is up. Post your predictions. (user search)
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  2018 interactive senate map is up. Post your predictions. (search mode)
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Author Topic: 2018 interactive senate map is up. Post your predictions.  (Read 14242 times)
Crumpets
Thinking Crumpets Crumpet
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*****
Posts: 17,812
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.06, S: -6.52

« on: January 27, 2017, 10:15:47 PM »

My current prediction: Rs net +2

The biggest wild card race is Arizona, where I think Jeff Flake is prime for a Trumpist primary challenge. If he survives, safe R. If he loses, tossup.

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Crumpets
Thinking Crumpets Crumpet
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 17,812
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.06, S: -6.52

« Reply #1 on: January 28, 2017, 01:32:09 PM »

ITT: "LOL Republicans are overconfident hacks! Democrats will win back the Senate easily!!!1"  -  "LOL no, YOU are the overconfident ones! Republicans will have 67 seats in 2019!!!11"

Yawn. Anyway, here are my ratings: http://www.270towin.com/2018-senate-election/aZoqx2
I think the GOP will definitely gain a couple of seats, but not sure how many.

Some early guesses:

MO - McCaskill +14
WI - Duffy +1 (saved by the WOW counties, but underperforms in rural WI)
ND - Cramer +8
OH - Mandel +5
IN - random R +10

FL - decided by a margin of 1% or less

Wow, that's a pretty yuge number for McCaskill. Why do you think she'll outperform her party's nominee in 2016 by a full 33 points?
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Crumpets
Thinking Crumpets Crumpet
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 17,812
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.06, S: -6.52

« Reply #2 on: January 28, 2017, 04:22:32 PM »

R's gain North Dakota, Indiana.

If D's can find a candidate, then Nevada could absolutely flip, but right now it looks slim that they find good candidates for both the Senate race AND the governor's race.

Is Sandoval running again? Because if so, the Democrats should absolutely focus on the Senate race.
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