2018 interactive senate map is up. Post your predictions.

[Figueira]

My prediction for what will actually happen: http://www.270towin.com/2018-senate-election/29JGB8

Republicans end up with a 54-46 majority (gaining MO/IN/ND and losing NV). Obviously a lot of those are tossups though. I actually think McCaskill shouldn't be underestimated; I don't think her huge win in 2012 was purely because of Akin being terrible.

Regarding Baker and Hogan being SUPER-POPULAR:

1. Why would they even run? They have a pretty good shot at re-election as Governor, so why risk losing a national election? It would make more sense for Baker to run against Markey in 2020 (and he would also lose against him, but at least he has nothing to lose at that point).
2. The reason why they're popular is because they don't have to do much as Governor due to the huge majorities held by the Democrats in those states. In a Senate race, once voters realize what policies they would actually vote for in Washington, they'll vote to keep them home. Also, just because 74% of Marylanders approve of Hogan doesn't mean they're super-enthusiastic about him.

I mean, sure, if I were the GOP, I'd probably try to recruit Baker and Hogan for 2018. But don't expect them to win.

[Figueira]

My current prediction: Rs net +2

The biggest wild card race is Arizona, where I think Jeff Flake is prime for a Trumpist primary challenge. If he survives, safe R. If he loses, tossup.

It seems a bit silly to call a one-term incumbent in a relatively swingy state who won his previous election by 3 points "safe."

[Figueira]

My prediction for what will actually happen: http://www.270towin.com/2018-senate-election/2XOWBa

Republicans end up with a 55-45 majority (gaining MO/IN/ND and losing NV). Obviously a lot of those are tossups though. I actually think McCaskill shouldn't be underestimated; I don't think her huge win in 2012 was purely because of Akin being terrible.

Regarding Baker and Hogan being SUPER-POPULAR:

1. Why would they even run? They have a pretty good shot at re-election as Governor, so why risk losing a national election? It would make more sense for Baker to run against Markey in 2020 (and he would also lose against him, but at least he has nothing to lose at that point).
2. The reason why they're popular is because they don't have to do much as Governor due to the huge majorities held by the Democrats in those states. In a Senate race, once voters realize what policies they would actually vote for in Washington, they'll vote to keep them home. Also, just because 74% of Marylanders approve of Hogan doesn't mean they're super-enthusiastic about him.

I mean, sure, if I were the GOP, I'd probably try to recruit Baker and Hogan for 2018. But don't expect them to win.

Florida? I can only see that flipping if Nelson retires, honestly. And I agree on McCaskill and Heitkamp not being underestimated. If Trump is really that unpopular, why in the world would people throw out their D Senators in place of someone who wouldn't do anything to reign him in? They're assuming that all his votes in those states are pure love for Trump, and I'm skeptical of that. There's definitely a path for the red state Dems, even if it's narrow. It likely involves getting on Trump's good side, even as he craters in popularity and championing individual state issues.

Florida was a mistake; I have no idea how that happened. Let me edit my post.

[Figueira]

There, edited. While it's possible that Republicans could gain Florida (especially if Nelson retires), I can't call it likely at this point.

[Figueira]

This thread feels VERY 2005 or 2009 ish. In 2006, Ds won 4 bush states? (OH,MT,MO, and VA).

What is your point?

[Figueira]

Here's the states ordered from Safe D to Safe R (in my opinion).

Hawaii
New York
Vermont
Maryland
Rhode Island
Connecticut
Massachusetts
California
Washington
Delaware
New Mexico
Maine
New Jersey
Minnesota
Michigan
Virginia
Pennsylvania
Florida
Wisconsin
Ohio
Nevada
West Virginia
Montana
Missouri
Indiana
Arizona
North Dakota
Texas
Utah
Nebraska
Alabama (special)
Mississippi
Tennessee
Wyoming