Politics and Elections in the Netherlands: coalition agreement presented

[mvd10]

Frustrated backbenchers always are annoying. I'm surprised this hasn't happened more often since more than half of the coalition (VVD+PvdA) MP's probably know they won't return after the election.

The CPB always analyses the election manifesto's of the parties. The results will be published next week but the VVD analysis already has been leaked out:

The VVD wants a 12 billion euro tax cut, through lower tax rates for people earning €18000-€66000 and a higher tax credits for working people
Development aid will be cut by €2.7 billion, ''toeslagen'' (additional benefits for lower income people) will also be cut and all benefits except pensions will be reduced
Working people will have a 1-1.2% gain in purchasing power, the elderly will stay roughly equal, people on benefits will lose 1.4% of their purchasing power
245.000 new jobs will be created and the economy will grow by and extra two percentage points if all the VVD plans are implemented (always take these kind of things with a grain of salt)



I like it, but it's obviously not going to happen. PvdA and GroenLinks have already criticized it (PvdA called it unfair and asocial while GroenLinks said the rich would get richer while the poor would poorer if the VVD programme is implemented), and there is a sizable chance one of these two parties is necessary for a majority coalition. And even a centre-right coalition won't implement this programme as CDA and D66 probably aren't this ambitious. It's always fun to read the election manifesto's but in the end the coalition agreement will only vaguely resemble those manifesto's, especially if you need a coalition with both left and right-wing parties.

Oh, and in a desperate attempt to win back PVV and 50PLUS voters VVD also pledged to invest €2 billion in elderly care. Elderly care is one of Wilders' favorite talking points (muh evil left-liberal elite is sending billions to Greece while neglecting our own elderly!).

[mvd10]

VVD and PVV want a Rutte-Wilders horse race, so that's probably why they didn't want a left-wing party in the debates. If Klaver had entered and won the debate he might have made it a three way race (with Klaver as the centre-left/left-wing candidate, Rutte for the centre-right and Wilders for the far-right).

[mvd10]

The CPB released their analysis of the election manifesto's. All parties would reduce the budget surplus, VVD for instance would cut taxes by €12 billion while only cutting spending by €4.3 billion (lol fiscal conservatism). I suppose it's much easier to come to a coalition agreement when there is room for €7 billion in freebies so perhaps GroenLinks or PvdA will join VVD-CDA-D66. It's probably really tempting to join a coalition which is going to give away billions of freebies.

If anyone wants to see the results I can post them (or you can look them up yourselves if you speak Dutch).

I also wonder how the 25-35 group voted in the 2006 election. Anyone born between 1977 and 1987 was able to vote in 2006 and I think more than 1% voted for CDA (they got 41 seats in that election).

[mvd10]

Which party will splurge the most?

PVV, 50PLUS and the Party for the Animals didn't let the CPB analyse their manifesto's so I don't know how their proposals will affect the debt (I strongly suspect PVV and especially 50PLUS don't care about the debt at all).

PvdA, SP, GroenLinks, CDA and the Vrijzinnige Partij (some fringe party) will all splurge 10 billion euros or more, but that's before the CPB takes extra economic growth into account.


https://www.cpb.nl/sites/default/files/omnidownload/Keuzes-in-Kaart-2018-2021.pdf

Search for ''tabel 2.1 samenvattend overzicht'', the important stuff is there.

EMU-saldo is the surplus/deficit relative to the baseline (ex-ante is without extra growth, ex-post is with extra growth). BBP is GDP.
Bbp-volume is economic growth relative to the baseline
Werkloosheid is unemployment relative to the baseline
Koopkracht is purchasing power relative to the baseline, werkenden means employed people, gepensioneerden are retired people and uitkeringsgerechtigden are people living on benefits.
Laagste t.o.v. hoogste inkomens show how the purchasing power of low income people will develop relative to the wealthy
Structurele werkgelegenheid is structural employment

DENK apparently is the only party that actually increases the budget surplus. Lol.

[mvd10]

The PVV bleeding votes to VVD is masking the fact that VVD are also losing a lot of credibility due to a multitude of scandals and poor campaign so far, which is pushing CDA-D66 depending on the region. EDIT : the Brit beat me to it.

I think Rutte has played another blinder again by going guns blazing trying to attract the populist Right, but I really doubt Rutte will survive the coalition talks after this. A double figures net seat loss and a five party coalition with people to your left, plus the supposition that he had prior knowledge of the drugs lord being paid off. He's toast.

I don't think Rutte is toast. Despite his attempts to attract right-wing populists he still is on the left of the VVD, leftist parties probably would rather see Rutte as PM than Zijlstra or Schippers, unless one of the smaller parties want to deliver the PM. That did happen a few times in the 60s and 70s (when the ARP delivered the PM instead of the bigger KVP) but I don't think that's very likely.  And Rutte might be one of the few politicians who can keep a 5 party grand coalition together for 4 years. But if the VVD doesn't become the largest non-PVV party Rutte is toast imo.

[mvd10]

Offering Rutte the foreign affairs position would piss off some VVD politicians. Jeanine Hennis-Plasschaert (defense minister) and Han ten Broeke (MP) are already positioning themselves to be the next foreign affairs minister. Buma probably will end up at justice (I hope it will destroy his career, I really can't stand him). Idk about Pechtold. Education is a traditional D66 issue but it's a fairly low position for someone like Pechtold. Interior maybe? I wonder who will get the most important jobs in the next cabinet. Some high profile politicians will be dissapointed, especially if it's a 5 party coalition.

[mvd10]

I wonder how being in government will affect D66 in the next elections (if they are in government, but I'm fairly sure D66 will be in the next government). Being in government seems to hurt them even more that other parties. Especially if it's a VVD-CDA-D66-CU-SGP coalition I can see D66 getting demolished in 2021.

[mvd10]

Apparently, Wilders has cancelled all of his planned public appearances.

A member of his personal security team (of Moroccan origin, lol) apparently tried to kill him or something.

He ''just'' leaked information to Moroccan gangs (well he is accused of leaking so idk if it's true). We don't know if it was specifically about Wilders or about his other clients.

[mvd10]

Klaver doesn't completely rule out cooperation with the VVD, but he says the chance they will come to an agreement is very small. The problem is that VVD-CDA-D66-CU-SGP probably won't have a majority, so VVD-CDA-D66 will need another (leftist) party.

Maybe purple plus (VVD-GL-D66-PvdA) becomes an option if GroenLinks wins a lot of seats, but that would be suicide for the VVD. It might be the only way for GroenLinks and PvdA to agree to join a Rutte cabinet though. If GL is in the cabinet while the PvdA isn't GL would lose a lot of seats to the PvdA (and vice versa), but they might enter a coalition with the VVD together. It would be hilarious to see the CDA locked out of government again. But even though I hate Buma I would much rather have a cabinet with the CDA than a left-liberal coalition.

[mvd10]

The current CDA and it's voters fully supports gay marriage. There have been multiple homosexual/lesbian CDA ministers. CDA opposed gay marriage in 2001, but the majority of VVD MP's including their leader Bolkestein opposed gay marriage in the mid 90s (they did vote for it in 2001 though). So it's cheap to attack CDA over this imo.

[mvd10]

The SP already is well to the left of their base on issues like refugees. Saying that the Netherlands should take in more refugees would make this rift even bigger (and drive away more SP voters to the PVV). The SP doesn't draw young college educated idealists like Bernie or Corbyn do, the SP base still mainly consists out of lower educated workers.

[mvd10]

Yeah, Roemer is being hypocritical by voting "no" and gets away with it due to Wilders' absence. He knows it too. Strategically smart, though.

Frits Wester, the moderator, is clearly biased against Roemer, by the way.

Wester used to work for the CDA. He probably still is a CDA member.

[mvd10]

I wonder what Asscher's position will be if he loses 25 seats with the PvdA. Current finance minister Dijsselbloem will remain in politics, either as finance minister (if the PvdA is in government) or as MP (if they aren't). Dijsselbloem doesn't struck me as someone with leadership ambitions, but if he ends up being a lowly MP he might as well go for party leader.. He could easily get a top job in the corporate sector with his experience, I can't imagine him being a random MP for 4 years. I strongly doubt Dijsselbloem would do much better than Asscher though. And if he does it will be because of the PvdA being in opposition against a VVD-led cabinet.

I just read that D66 wants to keep Dijsselbloem as finance minister to let him finish his term as Eurogroup chairman, so maybe he won't be demoted to MP if PvdA isn't in the next government. But I'm not sure whether other coalition partners would accept this (I'm sure VVD, CDA and even the smaller parties have plenty of politicians who would like to be finance minister).

[mvd10]

Ipsos preferred coalitions from a late February poll:



As fragmented as the general party picture. The pure centre-right/centre-left coalitions are the most popular with 14% each, but neither looks likely to get a majority. Many choose one of the many centrist options, but there are no clear preferences between the three VVD-led centrist coalitions, although the CDA-less one is a bit less popular (and not that realistic). 21% choose one of the two VVD-CDA-D66 options, which I believe looks the most likely outcome currently. The question is whether the two parties backing such a coalition, whoever they will be, will take actively part in it or stand outside to avoid being squeezed. The latter option sounds like the best option for these two parties, but the prospect of government can be alluring. Also they could use the defence of "creating stability" or making sure that the government will not consider deals on some issues with PVV.

D66 probably will make sure the government doesn't make any deals with the PVV.

Buma apparently hates Rutte, so maybe he will try to become PM of a CDA-D66-GroenLinks-PvdA-SP coalition. He denied it and it would be complete suicide for the CDA but don't underestimate the CDA's lust for power (and their base will die out the next 10 years so they might as well go out with a blaze). I don't think it will actually happen though.

I think we will end up with a VVD-CDA-D66-GroenLinks coalition. GroenLinks has become more left-wing under Klaver, but I think they could support a centre-right coalition as long as that coalition is very strong on climate chance. Their base is fairly affluent and might accept a centre-right economic programme in exchange for a strong effort to reduce emissions. PvdA knows entering a VVD-CDA-D66 coalition will make sure that whatever was left of their working class base will never return.

I still don't get why the PvdA didn't push harder for Aboutaleb. Some feared that he might have ended up as Cohen 2.0 (competent and fairly popular, but got humiliated by Wilders and Rutte in the debates and screwed up every single media appearance) but that still would have been better than what's happening now. And I think Aboutaleb actually was interested in entering the leadership race.

[mvd10]

VVD-CDA-D66-CU-SGP at 75 seats. Please let it happen.

[mvd10]

They don't have a majority in the senate though. D66 obviously isn't going to work with them just like the left-wing parties and I think the SJW-wing in CU is too big for CU to work with the PVV. That leaves only 50PLUS, and I think they would rather just sit at the sidelines than compromise and actually achieve anything

[mvd10]

VVD-CDA-D66-CU-SGP at 75 seats. Please let it happen.

Would mean the political death of D66 lol

Being in government has already almost killed D66 multiple times, but they always seem to come back after a decade or so in opposition. If VVD-CDA-D66-CU-SGP has a majority I think it will happen. CDA wants to work with the Christian parties, VVD doesn't want any left-wing party in government and D66 is very desperate to govern so I think they will eventually accept it. And GL and PvdA probably don't want to be in government with the VVD unless absolutely necessary, so if there is a centre-right majority they will gratefully go in opposition I think.

[mvd10]

I think such a coalition would just agree to block progressive legislation on issues like abortion and euthanasia for 4 years without rolling anything back. D66 would get its way with massive investments in education and a green tax shift (I don't think there are many climate change deniers in the SGP but I'm not sure). On the other areas the parties would easily come to an agreement. But atm this coalition doesn't have a majority in the polls so it's just speculation.

[mvd10]

They don't have a majority in the senate though. D66 obviously isn't going to work with them just like the left-wing parties and I think the SJW-wing in CU is too big for CU to work with the PVV. That leaves only 50PLUS, and I think they would rather just sit at the sidelines than compromise and actually achieve anything

How does CU who is pro-life have a SJW-wing?

The Christian hipsters. Socially conservative, but fairly left-wing on issues like climate change, economics and refugees. SJW probably isn't the right word for it, but those people don't want to work with the PVV.

[mvd10]

An interesting interview with Sybrand Buma in Vrij Nederland for those who understand Dutch.

Yeah, I think Buma might surprise us this election. He is running against the ''endless individualism'' of the VVD. Buma reminds me of Theresa May. They both are centrist on economics while also being authoritorian, and they both despise the libertarian right (think Cameron/Osborne and the VVD). And I think the message of Buma and May is much more popular than the message of the libertarian right (even though I prefer Rutte and Cameron over Buma and May).

With libertarian right I don't mean actual libertarians, I mean the socially liberal fiscally conservative™ pro-globalism live and let live right-wingers (like me lol).

[mvd10]

I don't think a VVD-CDA horse-race would lead to much tactical voting. Rutte and Buma aren't that much different and pretty much everyone knows the next coalition will likely include both VVD and CDA. In 2012 you had a clear horse-race between a left-wing party (PvdA) and a right-wing party (VVD), I don't think many left-wing voters are going to vote for a centre-right politician to prevent the other centre-right politician from becoming PM.

[mvd10]

I'm still not completely convinced by the VVD campaign. Their 2010 campaign was great. Other parties ran very person-based campaigns (Cohen and Balkenende were featured on all PvdA and CDA posters) while the VVD ran a campaign on the issues. None of the VVD posters featured Rutte. Rutte even said that who would become PM was interesting, but not very important, which led to speculation about Neelie Kroes becoming PM instead of Rutte. Part of it probably had to do with the VVD being used to being the eternal third party and never having a chance to deliver the PM (you're not going to run a person-based campaign if you won't become PM) but their issue-based campaign was a factor in their success imo.

[mvd10]

I wonder how DENK will react. They probably will attack the government for it. It will make DENK even more hated, but it doesn't matter since 98% of the people won't vote DENK no matter what. The people who might vote DENK probably completely agree with Erdogan.

[mvd10]

We should not forget that 21 seats is barely half of the seats the CDA used to get in the 2000s

[mvd10]

If CDA ends up first, they should make a coalition with VVD, PVV, 50+ and SGP (it has the majority of seats). I suppose that some "deceived" PVV and 50+ would vote for them for the next election, consolidating their place as first party.

This is minor related to the other objections, but SGP has never been in government before and it's difficult to see what kind of coalition deal would be tolerable to both them and VVD.

On things like taxes, the economy and defense the SGP and VVD are quite close to each other. There are differences on ethical issues but I think the SGP would agree to support a government as long as progressive legislation will be blocked and I don't think the VVD cares that much about these issues. In fact the SGP played a big role in passing government policy (VVD and PvdA needed D66, SGP and CU in the senate). I don't think the SGP will be in government but I can see them supporting a VVD-CDA-D66-CU minority coalition. D66 and CU/SGP would be the real problem there.