Trump is just the beginning, not the end of right-wing populism. Be warned.

[mvd10]

I don't think the GOP will be explicitly right-wing populist but I do think identity issues will play a role, it's naive to think we'll be a 'happy identity' fiscally conservative party that wins 90% of Asians and college-educated whites.

My best guess is that the future GOP coalition will consist out of better-off suburban/exurban whites (and a few wealthier hispanics/Asians who 'became whiter') plus whatever is left of white rural America while the Democratic Party will be heavily urban (young, progressive postgraduate whites + poor urban minorities). So I imagine some of the less diverse wealthy suburbs that swung D in 2016 will eventually swing back to the GOP column while some other places probably are lost for good because of demographic changes and those suburbs becoming more urban.

Or if things get really weird and demographics = destiny comes true we might see something like a three party system. The Democrats keep winning, the GOP keeps losing as the white identity party. Eventually there is a conflict in the Democratic Party between urban progressive professionals on the one side and poorer minorities and young left-wing activists in the other side. The urban professionals break off and team up with whatever is left of the Bush/Kasich/Rubio Republicans and you truly have a 'haves' vs 'have-nots' political system. A bit like we currently see in France where Macron is popular among urban young professionals (typically progressive) and old wealthy people (typically conservative) while both the far-right and the (far-)left hate him. But that's probably not going to happen because of the American system. And they'd have to come up with a compromise on social issues lol.

[mvd10]

agreed
it's really not surprising if you look at what had been happening in europe

In most countries the mainstream centre-right is still ahead of the far-right though. Most European countries actually have a centre-right PM (even though some are in a coalition with the far-right while others need a centre-left partner). We're not as f**ed as the GOP establishment yet . It's actually the centre-left that has completely collapsed here.