WA-8: Reichert retiring

[Pragmatic Conservative]

So now that we’re in December dino is still the only republican running while it’s a clown car race on the democrats side I still leave the race at lean republican.

It's not always the case that the side with the more crowded primary loses. In fact, in many recent elections, it's just the opposite.

I'll concede that Rossi will probably overperform a generic R here, but I'd expect a generic R to lose here by at least high single digits, if not double digits. Rossi will probably at least make a race out of this, but I'd rate it a Toss-Up, and my hunch is that it flips to the Democrats, given how toxic Trump is in this district.

But the dems are already under performing in Washington back in the 45th senate race the gop lost the race by 10 points 55-45 which was a lot better then I thought we would do. But to put that in context the 45th votes for obama 58-40 and Hillary 65-28 so that is a massive under performance and that is the more democrat part of the the eighth if obama had won the 45th by 55-45 then he would have lost the eighth by a point or 2.

Legislative elections shouldn’t be compared to federal elections. Different issues matter at the state level then at the Presidential and or congressional level and besides as that race determined control of the Washington state senate it very much in a way was a referendum on Jay Inslee and whether you trusted state democrats with a trifecta.

[Pragmatic Conservative]

No those polls were accurate but people misread them they thought that David Reichert would lose just like people are underestimating Rossi.

Rossi is a good recruit for the district and probably their best possible pick, but there is really nothing right now to suggest he is favored. I've been thinking of this seat as a toss-up, but it depends how Democratic-leaning the environment is later this year. There is still a pretty big difference between, say, D+8 and D+12. As for Rossi's past performance in this district, that's not really that helpful in figuring out how it will go in November. There are oodles and oodles of incumbent House Reps who won big in one election only to lose 2 years later. It happens every single wave election. Same applies to statewide candidates who won the district in previous races.

As for 2006 and 2008, going off how Reichert performed isn't the best idea either. He was a strong incumbent and his close calls only show that if the seat was open, it likely would have gone to the Democrats.

This seat was open in 2008 when Reichert first won the district as an open seat. This certainly doesn't mean Rossi will win though and I definitely wouldn't say he is some big favorite.

[Pragmatic Conservative]

This seat was open in 2008 when Reichert first won the district as an open seat. This certainly doesn't mean Rossi will win though and I definitely wouldn't say he is some big favorite.

He was first elected to WA-8 in 2004 tho

Thanks for correcting that some reason I seemed to remember seeing somewhere that he first ran in 2008. Still the past results do indicate republicans can win here in a tough environment for them. I don’t really agree with Greedo that WA-8 is lean R but I also think it’s silly for democrats to call this seat certain to flip or likely D.