Alabama Megathread 2: Thou Shall Not Touch Teenage Girls

[Pragmatic Conservative]

Okay I’m totally serious MOORE needs to drop out!
I don’t want to lose a safe senate seat!

So I am getting it that if Moore was still well ahead in the polls despite the scandal you would still support him and want him to stay in?

[Pragmatic Conservative]

After what happened with Gillespie, Greedo is desperate for a win.

They've won enough for the next 3 years, at least.

That is true.

After those suburban curb-stompings last week Greedy-0 is desperate for a win in the reddest state in the nation. He sweatin like a dog cuz if Moore loses the GOP gonna lose every state

Actually Moore losing is bad but that will be his fault for losing unlike Virginia house of delegates.

One of bright spots in the 45th State senate race we only lost it by 10. It was a 65-28 Clinton seat so that gives me hope that in the 8th that Rossi can win since the 45th is one of the more left wing parts of the district.

Eh I guess it’s possible but keep in mind that seat is much more Republican downballot so I wouldn’t say losing by 10 is all that impressive.

[Pragmatic Conservative]

After what happened with Gillespie, Greedo is desperate for a win.

They've won enough for the next 3 years, at least.

That is true.

After those suburban curb-stompings last week Greedy-0 is desperate for a win in the reddest state in the nation. He sweatin like a dog cuz if Moore loses the GOP gonna lose every state

Actually Moore losing is bad but that will be his fault for losing unlike Virginia house of delegates.

One of bright spots in the 45th State senate race we only lost it by 10. It was a 65-28 Clinton seat so that gives me hope that in the 8th that Rossi can win since the 45th is one of the more left wing parts of the district.

Eh I guess it’s possible but keep in mind that seat is much more Republican downballot so I wouldn’t say losing by 10 is all that impressive.

True but keep in mind this was an off year election heck this seat voted 59-40 for obama so it’s a blue seat just not to bad to only lose by 10 when trump is president.

After what happened with Gillespie, Greedo is desperate for a win.

They've won enough for the next 3 years, at least.

That is true.

After those suburban curb-stompings last week Greedy-0 is desperate for a win in the reddest state in the nation. He sweatin like a dog cuz if Moore loses the GOP gonna lose every state

Actually Moore losing is bad but that will be his fault for losing unlike Virginia house of delegates.

One of bright spots in the 45th State senate race we only lost it by 10. It was a 65-28 Clinton seat so that gives me hope that in the 8th that Rossi can win since the 45th is one of the more left wing parts of the district.

Eh I guess it’s possible but keep in mind that seat is much more Republican downballot so I wouldn’t say losing by 10 is all that impressive.

True but keep in mind this was an off year election heck this seat voted 59-40 for obama so it’s a blue seat just not to bad to only lose by 10 when trump is president.

After what happened with Gillespie, Greedo is desperate for a win.

They've won enough for the next 3 years, at least.

That is true.

After those suburban curb-stompings last week Greedy-0 is desperate for a win in the reddest state in the nation. He sweatin like a dog cuz if Moore loses the GOP gonna lose every state

Actually Moore losing is bad but that will be his fault for losing unlike Virginia house of delegates.

One of bright spots in the 45th State senate race we only lost it by 10. It was a 65-28 Clinton seat so that gives me hope that in the 8th that Rossi can win since the 45th is one of the more left wing parts of the district.

Eh I guess it’s possible but keep in mind that seat is much more Republican downballot so I wouldn’t say losing by 10 is all that impressive.

True but keep in mind this was an off year election heck this seat voted 59-40 for obama so it’s a blue seat just not to bad to only lose by 10 when trump is president.

It was still a very hyped of special though where both sides spent millions.

[Pragmatic Conservative]

Rossi gonna get curb stomped by Generic D and Greedy-0 gonnna be represented by a libtard

Well Dino Rossi was semi competitive in the 2008 democrat wave so I guess he has a chance but if 2006 is a real bad rep year then I doubt he wins.

[Pragmatic Conservative]

Looks like all that talk of "Moore momentum" in this race was basically just hot air, see also VA-GOV.

Different situation

-Moore has led in most recent polls and in most cases by somewhere between 3-6 points
whereas in Virginia Northam remained either in the lead or was tied in most late polls.

-Alabama is normally Safe R in Senate races while Virginia is typically lean D in most statewide races

-Unlike in Virginia where  Northam was the favorite for much of the fall outside of a short time Moore was leading in most polls and looked like the front runner.

[Pragmatic Conservative]

-Moore has led in most recent polls and in most cases by somewhere between 3-6 points
whereas in Virginia Northam remained either in the lead or was tied in most late polls.

Polling underestimated Democrats by a lot in VA, it could easily happen again in this race. Almost no one predicted that McCaskill would win in a landslide either because the "state was just too Republican", and yet she outperformed her RCP polling average by 10 percentage points. Some posters also dismissed any poll that showed John Bel Edwards up significantly as junk because there was no way a Democrat could win over so many "racist LA hicks" in a special election, how did that turn out again?

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Special elections are notoriously difficult to predict/poll, and it is not every day that a Republican candidate is accused of pedophilia. People also like to talk about how "inelastic" AL is, and yet a Democrat came within 3 points of winning in SC-05 (a district I wouldn't really consider that elastic).

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Not denying that, I was just talking about the supposed "momentum" of Roy Moore in this race, which IMO is basically non-existent.

1.Sure they could be off but this situation is different in that the Republican candidate is actually leading in most of the polls; also polling misses are inherently tricky to predict. Polls underestimated Republicans slightly n GA-6 as an example earlier this year. In Louisiana and I believe Missouri the Democratic party candidate was also consistently in the lead also:
-McCaskill    was the incumbent in Missouri along with the fact Missouri is much more favorable to Democrats then Alabama is statewide.
-As for Louisiana governors races are much less partisan then senate races.

2. SC-05 actually has a recent history of voting for Democrats; it had a Dem. rep from 1883-2011; unlike Alabama where Democrats have not won a statewide race since 2006 and haven't won a senate race since 1992. Also no one is saying Democrats can't come close but actually winning is much harder in a very polarized inelastic state (we have seen the same thing play out in many southern states before actually)

3. I was more emphasizing that Moore regaining a lead was effectively returning this race to the point where it was for much of the fall. If anything Republicans getting more involved in great news for Moore.