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June 10, 2024, 09:36:04 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

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  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Election What-ifs? (Moderator: Dereich)
  Post Random Maps Here 2.0. (search mode)
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Author Topic: Post Random Maps Here 2.0.  (Read 212645 times)
bagelman
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,640
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.90, S: -4.17

P P P
« Reply #50 on: November 20, 2017, 01:25:55 PM »
« edited: October 31, 2018, 05:45:33 PM by bagelman »


Democrats try the sunbelt strategy in 2020 and fail.

http://www.270towin.com/maps/9PEkj
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bagelman
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,640
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.90, S: -4.17

P P P
« Reply #51 on: November 30, 2017, 12:17:04 AM »
Quote from: beautiful Harry Teague! on November 29, 2017, 04:50:52 PM


any guesses

clue- it is involving a year between 1965-1975

Hmm, congressional map translated into state PV margins from that period?
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bagelman
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,640
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.90, S: -4.17

P P P
« Reply #52 on: November 30, 2017, 01:11:14 AM »


Somewhat unrealistic map wherein the Republicans nominate someone very homophobic in 2020 after Trump steps down. Maybe Pence or the gov. of MS. For some reason or other the Republican nominee, after a tough primary against a moderate supported by John Kasich and Rob Portman, attacks these two figures so brutally (and the Ohio GOP in general) that Ohio Republicans refuse to support him and the state votes to the left of IL and CT.
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bagelman
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,640
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.90, S: -4.17

P P P
« Reply #53 on: December 04, 2017, 11:04:13 PM »


Congressman Ron Paul (R-TX) 284 EV ✓

President Barack Obama (D-IL) 254 EV



President Ron Paul (R-TX) 295 EV ✓

Fmr. Sec. Hillary Clinton 243 EV




Sen. Bernie Sanders (D-VT) 332 EV ✓
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bagelman
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,640
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.90, S: -4.17

P P P
« Reply #54 on: January 14, 2018, 03:16:26 PM »
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bagelman
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,640
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.90, S: -4.17

P P P
« Reply #55 on: January 14, 2018, 11:27:28 PM »
Quote from: America's Sweetheart ❤ on January 14, 2018, 07:17:34 PM
Obviously. Maybe he wants us to imagine a scenario where these results are possible. If that's the case, I'd say Jimmy Carter/Frank Church vs. Nelson Rockefeller/Ronald Reagan and there's a massive farm crisis going on.
Also maybe there's two third party candidates who get ~3% of the vote each, which would explain some of the more wacky results.

actually I was just posting that for fun Tongue
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bagelman
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,640
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.90, S: -4.17

P P P
« Reply #56 on: January 15, 2018, 08:25:24 PM »


294-244 DEM

Closest DEM state: NV

Closest GOP state: OH

Tipping point state: NV->MA->IL

Most GOP state: ND

Most DEM state: MS

With all that out of the way, can anyone guess who the GOP nominee is?
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bagelman
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,640
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.90, S: -4.17

P P P
« Reply #57 on: January 15, 2018, 08:38:56 PM »


margin of victory map for the above
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bagelman
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,640
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.90, S: -4.17

P P P
« Reply #58 on: January 16, 2018, 03:33:52 PM »


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bagelman
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,640
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.90, S: -4.17

P P P
« Reply #59 on: January 16, 2018, 03:34:47 PM »
Quote from: America's Sweetheart ❤ on January 16, 2018, 01:26:21 PM
Quote from: bagelman on January 15, 2018, 08:25:24 PM

294-244 DEM

Closest DEM state: NV

Closest GOP state: OH

Tipping point state: NV->MA->IL

Most GOP state: ND

Most DEM state: MS

With all that out of the way, can anyone guess who the GOP nominee is?
Jim Hood/John Bel Edwards versus John Hoeven/Susan Collins?

Nope

Hint: The results are based on actual numbers
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bagelman
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,640
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.90, S: -4.17

P P P
« Reply #60 on: January 20, 2018, 11:25:11 PM »
Quote from: bronz4141 on January 19, 2018, 07:33:40 PM
2024-The Hawley era begins


Sen. Josh Hawley (R-MO)/Rep. Chris DiPiazza (R-NJ)-361 EV/53.2%
Sen. Kamala Harris (D-CA)/Gov. Jon Ossoff (D-GA)-177 EV/47.5%
Missouri Sen. Josh Hawley, elected in 2021 after the retirement of Roy Blunt to become White House Chief of Staff for President Donald Trump, runs for president in 2024 after sterling conservative credentials and several legislative achievements including The Hawley Act (sweeping education reform).
Hawley wins the 2024 GOP nomination and picks rising Republican star Rep. Chris DiPiazza of New Jersey as his vice presidential running mate. Hawley/DiPiazza wins with 361 electoral votes, becoming one of the youngest presidential/vice-presidential pairs since Clinton and Gore in 1992. Hawley wins with 53% of the vote, compared with Democratic opponent Sen. Kamala Harris' 47% of the popular vote. Harris wins the 2024 Democratic nomination in a bitter ethnic battle, and the remnants of the nomination casts over to the general election. This is the Republicans' third consecutive electoral victory, first time since 1980/1984/1988 with Reagan-Bush.

https://savejersey.com/2018/01/di-piazza-paramus-council/

My version:
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bagelman
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,640
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.90, S: -4.17

P P P
« Reply #61 on: January 21, 2018, 08:44:09 PM »
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bagelman
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,640
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.90, S: -4.17

P P P
« Reply #62 on: January 22, 2018, 10:36:25 PM »
Quote from: America's Sweetheart ❤ on January 22, 2018, 05:22:53 PM
Looks like a generic modern election in an alternate timeline where the Solid South never breaks up.

It happens to be the 1976 trend map Smiley
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bagelman
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,640
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.90, S: -4.17

P P P
« Reply #63 on: January 22, 2018, 10:45:05 PM »
1980 trend map as election battleground map, kinda messy. Democrats have a small advantage.

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bagelman
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,640
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.90, S: -4.17

P P P
« Reply #64 on: January 24, 2018, 12:11:55 AM »
Trump vs. Clinton '92 adjusted for 2016 vote totals. However, because Clinton won less of the vote share than Trump because of the sorta 3 way contest, Trump wins. 2004 map because average of 1992 and 2016 is '04.





A tie flips all the aqua states other than OH and LA. Clinton needs at least one of these states of win. Probably also flips DE and WV if he wins.
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bagelman
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,640
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.90, S: -4.17

P P P
« Reply #65 on: January 24, 2018, 12:31:30 AM »


This is pretty much what happen when we adjust for Clinton '96 instead of '92



Sometimes you just have those depressing moments when you stare at your screen and wonder why you woke up that morning, other than to go to work.

swing:
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bagelman
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,640
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.90, S: -4.17

P P P
« Reply #66 on: January 24, 2018, 11:55:51 AM »


Margin of victory map for Bush '88 vs. Clinton '92.

Clinton's best victory margin is 9% in RI. All <1% MOVs set to tossup.
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bagelman
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,640
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.90, S: -4.17

P P P
« Reply #67 on: January 24, 2018, 01:36:15 PM »


Dukakis '88 defeats Bush '92.
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bagelman
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,640
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.90, S: -4.17

P P P
« Reply #68 on: January 24, 2018, 02:05:21 PM »


1912 with Gary Johnson 2016 added as a candidate, managing 2nd in both PV and EV.
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bagelman
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,640
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.90, S: -4.17

P P P
« Reply #69 on: January 24, 2018, 05:50:46 PM »

Yep
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bagelman
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,640
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.90, S: -4.17

P P P
« Reply #70 on: January 24, 2018, 08:31:38 PM »


Wilson 266 EV

All Socialist and Communist aligned tickets from 1888-1956: 252 EV
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bagelman
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,640
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.90, S: -4.17

P P P
« Reply #71 on: January 24, 2018, 09:01:39 PM »
Adlai Stevenson 1952 vs. Goldwater
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bagelman
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,640
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.90, S: -4.17

P P P
« Reply #72 on: February 01, 2018, 11:19:51 PM »
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bagelman
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,640
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.90, S: -4.17

P P P
« Reply #73 on: February 03, 2018, 03:30:21 PM »
Quote from: Harry S Truman, GM on February 02, 2018, 11:37:24 PM
Quote from: BigVic on February 02, 2018, 08:18:36 PM
2020 Election with 3rd Party nominee

snip

Fmr. Gov. John R. Kasich (I-OH)/Gov. John W. Hickenlooper (I-CO) 285 (42.8%)
Sen. Elizabeth A. Warren (D-MA)/Sen. Christopher S. Murphy (D-CT) 169 (27.6%)
Pres. Donald J. Trump (R-NY)/VP Michael R. Pence (R-IN) 84 (25.5%)
Others (5.5%)
How does Trump lose West Virginia while carrying Pennsylvania?

Political hackery
This is based on the most recent Trump approval ratings from Gallup.
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bagelman
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,640
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.90, S: -4.17

P P P
« Reply #74 on: February 06, 2018, 09:47:44 PM »


Apportionment based on the numbers of McDonald's per state, with color showing difference from OTL. My state of Ohio has the most number per capita, with NJ having the least.
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