2018 Congressional Generic Ballot/House Polls Megathread 2 - no debates please

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Yeah the hacks like Andrew and Krazen are already jizzing up a storm over at RRH and RedState because of an obscure Trump -3 poll. I guess they convinced themselves that AZ-8 was a fluke and that Doug Jones and Conor Lamb really were elected as Republicans

We've gotten multiple generic ballot polls this week already:

D+10(Ipsos)
D+8(IBD)
D+8(MC)
D+9(Quinnipiac)
D+3(SurveyMonkey)
D+4(Rasmussen)

That averages to D+7. That's a pretty reasonable estimate to where things are at right now.

It might be better to look at the median (not the mean), which is +8.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

I'm not that optimistic. I'd say +10, thanks to the illegal gerrymandering.

That's why I think the Senate will almost certainly flip, but the House won't.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Indie GCB 48/26 D+20

Whoa!

I was thinking the GOP might still keep the House, but do people even realize just how bad this is for them? This is disastrous for them. Never seen anything like it.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

I can't believe 538 is actually using the discredited NBC poll.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Cook moved PA-17 to Lean D, I'm guessing Dave got a preview of the poll.

It wasn't already??? Geez, these pundits are delusional sometimes, if they think this wasn't already Lean D, if not better.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

https://twitter.com/MonmouthPoll/status/1021772134320877568
AHHHHHHHH YES LAMB

Told ya so! (clap)
Told ya so! (clap)
Told ya, told ya, told ya so! (clap)

Told ya so! (clap)
Told ya so! (clap)
Told ya, told ya, told ya so! (clap)

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Is that whiny crybaby Stewart Mills III running again?

[Bandit3 the Worker]

What’s causing the Democrats to head south in the polls?

Investors B.S. Daily has a single laughable poll from 10 days ago that's a tie, and 538 inexplicably gives it more weight than much more recent polls that are D +9.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

As of now, I'm predicting the Democrats retake both houses pretty handily - just to spite CBS, which has turned into a carbon copy of Fox News in recent years.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Why are the Democrats doing a lot better in the House races lately but slightly worse in the Senate races? You'd think the Kavanaugh stuff would help them in the Senate.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

TBH, I have no idea what the difference between the candidates are, they all seem the same to me. Though it doesnt surprise me that Baker is more popular with Ds than Warren.

Then why does Baker stay a Republican? I thought someone said 2 years ago that he hates Trump so much that he was going to switch parties if Trump won. And he opposed him on some environmental stuff.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

One thing I don't understand is this: The generic House ballot margin on 538 keeps getting bigger, but the likelihood of the Democrats taking the House is getting slightly smaller. How can that happen?

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Things are looking pretty good, but if the GOP is gonna lose the House, then exactly what seats will they lose? I'd bet Andy Barr and Steve Chabot are done for, and that seat in West Virginia will probably flip too, but do we specifically know of any others that will probably flip?

[Bandit3 the Worker]

What were people predicting would happen in 2010 on Labor Day?

Nobody outside the media bubble was predicting the Republicans would retake Congress.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

The first sign of minor trouble in 2014 was around August or September when the right-wing media started attacking that guy in Ohio because he had epilepsy. Nobody ever, ever, ever predicted the election result would be anywhere near as bad as it was. There was no rhyme or reason for it, considering the fundamentals actually favored the Democrats.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Looks like Generic Ballot polls are prone to overestimate Dem chances if that's the case.

That's a smoking gun that the elections are rigged by Republicans.

In any other country, if the polls were off by that much, it would be a sign that the elections were rigged - not a sign that the polls were inaccurate.

A similar case is Kentucky in 2015.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

I want to say really that you had people saying the House was at risk by Labor Day of 2009, even.

But that was mostly just the right-wing media and the Tea Party throwing a little toddler tantrum about Obama winning.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Poor Selzer.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

The 72 KY-06 voters don't like Andy Barr;
39% favorable rating; 53% unfavorable; 8% don’t know

Yeah, barring another Moscow midterm, Barr is done.

This is the second poll that's had him down by double digits.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

In Kentucky’s 6th, with just 106 polled 34% claimed that they or someone they know well struggled with addiction to opioids. That’s disturbingly high to me.

Unfortunately, that sounds about right. I don't want to know how bad it would be if it was WV-03 or something.

I've known several people who have had heroin addictions just within the past few years.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Talk Business Poll conducted by Hendrix College (538 B- pollster) show the following results in the Arkansas Congressional races

First District  422 respondents  Margin of Error +/- 4.7%. This used to be the most Democrat District. Flipped in 2010
      Rick Crawford (R inc) 57%
      Chintin Desia   (D).     22%
      Elvis Presley (L).            3%        Yes this guy changed his name.
      Undecided.                  18%

Second District  428 respondents  Margin of Error +/- 4.7%. Became a swing district in the 1980s.
      French Hill (R inc)      49.5%
      Clarke Tucker (D).      40.5%
      Joe Swafford. (L)           2%
      Undecided                     8%

Third District  428 respondents Margin of Error +/- 4.7% Flipped to GOP in 1966
       Steve Womack (R inc) 53%
       Josh Mahony (D)          31%
       Michael Kalagias (L)       5%
       Undecided.                    11%

Fourth District 423 respondents Margin of Error +/- 4.7%. Last District to Flip in 2014
        Bruce Westerman (R inc) 54%
        Hayden Shamel (D).          24%
        Tom Canada (L)                   5%
        Undecided                          17%

This is disgraceful.

Arkansas needs to get with the program.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

The generic ballot in Michigan is D+12. That is more than enough to flip the state legislature.

So I guess now we know what the next state to repeal "right-to-work" is.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Gotta prepare for that Kennedyesque primary challenge against Trump in 2020

Kasich will lose the primary. The GOP base loves Trump too much.