heatcharger
Junior Chimp
Posts: 5,564
Political Matrix
E: -1.04, S: -0.24
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« on: July 11, 2016, 02:55:57 PM » |
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In the last 3 cycles pollsters have got Nevada wrong more than any other state, averaging 4-6 points over-estimating the Rs.
You realize that Republican candidates in Nevada in 2014 outperformed the polls by a lot, right?
obviously i was talking about presidential cycles. Everyone knows turnout for presidential cycles is completely different. Certainly pollsters should model midterms differently than presidential years. So it is a moot point.
There is no reason to suspect there is some kind if systemic bias among pollsters polling Nevada, particularly because 2014 proved otherwise. Until there is more proof, there is no reason to start unskewing Nevada polls.
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