2017 Virginia HoD Thread

[heatcharger]

Normally these state-specific threads attract little traffic, but it seems people are interested in how close Democrats will make the HoD in Virginia this year, so I made this. I'll try to update this thread, but no promises. Anyways, Republicans and Democrats hold 66 and 34 seats, respectively.

I decided to make a list of vulnerable R-held seats:

District	Incumbent?	2013 HD	2015 HD	2012 Pres	2013 Gov	2016 Pres	Region
HD-02	No	D 50-49	R 50-49	D 59-40	D 53-42	D 58-37	NoVA Exurbs
HD-10	Yes	R 62-38	R 57-43	R 51-47	R 49-46	D 50-44	NoVA Exurbs
HD-12	Yes	R 52-47	R 58-42	D 51-47	D 48-42	D 48-45	Blacksburg
HD-13	Yes	R 51-49	R 56-44	D 55-44	D 48-47	D 55-40	NoVA
HD-21	Yes	R 54-45	R 57-43	D 52-47	D 49-45	D 49-45	Norfolk-Virginia Beach
HD-28	No	R 91-0	R 60-40	D 49-49	R 49-45	R 48-47	NoVA/Fredricksburg
HD-31	Yes	R 54-45	R 57-43	D 53-46	D 49-46	D 53-42	NoVA Exurbs
HD-32	Yes	R 51-49	R 53-47	D 52-47	D 51-44	D 58-37	NoVA
HD-40	Yes	R 60-40	R 65-35	R 51-48	R 51-44	D 53-42	NoVA
HD-42	No	R 60-40	R 63-37	D 53-46	D 51-44	D 59-36	NoVA
HD-50	Yes	R 55-45	R 59-41	D 54-46	R 48-48	D 54-40	NoVA
HD-51	Yes	R 54-46	R 100-0	D 51-47	R 48-47	D 52-43	NoVA (debatable)
HD-67	Yes	R 54-45	R 100-0	D 54-45	D 52-43	D 60-34	NoVA
HD-68	Yes	R 63-37	R 61-37	R 55-44	R 44-43	D 52-41	Richmond Suburbs
HD-72	No	R 93-0	R 100-0	R 54-45	R 47-42	D 49-44	Richmond Suburbs
HD-73	Yes	R 94-0	R 100-0	R 52-46	R 47-42	D 51-43	Richmond Suburbs
HD-84	Yes	R 57-42	R 100-0	R 49-49	R 47-47	R 49-45	Norfolk-Virginia Beach
HD-85	Yes*	R 56-43	R 100-0	R 49-49	R 48-46	R 47-46	Norfolk-Virginia Beach
HD-94	Yes	R 51-49	R 57-42	D 52-47	D 48-45	D 50-44	Newport News
HD-100	Yes**	D 71-29	R 58-42	D 55-44	D 48-45	D 49-47	Eastern Shore

*Scott Taylor's old seat, special election held January 2017, R 53-47 result

**Democratic incumbent ran for Northam's old State Senate seat in 2014

So yeah, here are 17 Clinton-GOP districts in addition to 3 Trump-GOP districts I think could be competitive under the right conditions.

[heatcharger]

Good idea , thank you!

To be honest, I initially expected something like 55-45 for the Pubs, but I'm going to be bold and saying something more like 52-48 for the Pubs instead. I mean, you Hillary won 48 seats by more than 5 points (51 total), so I suppose it is possible.

I think who's at the top of the ticket will matter. I have this theory that if Perriello is the Democratic candidate, people, especially in NoVA, will want to "place a check" on him by voting for Republicans downballot, and I've seen it happen many times, including with Comstock last year. I don't think Northam evokes the same fear of "tax and spend" liberal policies, so they'd be more comfortable voting for a Democratic House candidate.

[heatcharger]

I wish the State Senate was up this year too.

Currently, I'm in the process of creating a formula to rank seats by most likely flips. It will use a mix of data from Pres 2016, Sen 2014, Gov/LG/AG 2013, Pres 2012, average Democratic off-off election drop off, 2012-2016 swing, House 2013-2015 swing, incumbency, money raised and presidential approval rating.

How are you going to calculate this by district? PVI? I think windjammer has those by legislative districts as I recall. In any case, I'm interested to see what you have.

[heatcharger]

I wish the State Senate was up this year too.

Currently, I'm in the process of creating a formula to rank seats by most likely flips. It will use a mix of data from Pres 2016, Sen 2014, Gov/LG/AG 2013, Pres 2012, average Democratic off-off election drop off, 2012-2016 swing, House 2013-2015 swing, incumbency, money raised and presidential approval rating.

Did you ever end up finishing this? I'd like to see the ranking you came up with.

Also I'm feeling pretty confident about HD-67 flipping this November based on what I've seen from the Democratic candidate's campaign so far.

[heatcharger]

Also looking at growth data, it is interesting how fast Harrisonburg (Clinton won here by 22 points in 2016) is growing out in the Shenandoah Valley. As of right now 56.4% of the district is Harrisonburg City and that number will only go up after 2020. If a fair HoD map is drawn in 2021, this HoD 26 could be competitive.

Harrisonburg is a college town that attracts upscale suburbanites from across the state and New Jersey for some reason as well.

And fair legislative maps are a long way to go, so we'll see down the road.

[heatcharger]

My ratings:

Likely D pickups: 2,  42
Lean D pickups: 31, 32, 67
Pure tossups: 12, 13, 21, 51
Lean R holds: 10, 72
Likely R holds: 40, 50, 68, 85, 94

I was actually just in HD-12 to see Tim Kaine stump for Chris Hurst, who I think is a very solid candidate as a 30 year-old with a heartbreaking background. I think that one flips if Blacksburg college turnout is where it needs to be, although that's not very reliable, so that's why I think it's a tossup. HD-13 and HD-51 are Prince William County seats that'll flip if Northam's winning the county by 10-15. HD-21 requires strong African-American turnout in VA Beach, and I don't really have a good read on whether that will come to fruition. The early vote is completely meaningless to me.

As for my home district of HD-67, LeMunyon is a very strong incumbent Republican who can survive a decent sized Democratic wave, but Delaney has proven to be a good candidate and fundraised well, so I think she'll win by a small but decisive margin.

Other districts still have a strong Republican DNA, so those don't go down unless Tuesday is a big blue wave. Also HD-50 has a weak Democratic candidate which is why I think it doesn't flip even if it was a big time Clinton district.

My prediction is D+8.

[heatcharger]

Can I get your take on HD 100, since you haven't posted it here. The seat has been competitive all season, sitting on the swingy eastern shore. It is the one seat that I feel confident DDHQ has misrated, largely because the Incumbent raised 5K last month and spent less then 10K. Those are the moves of a person who already knows his goose is cooked (Northam coattails on the Eastern Shore?), or is expected a walk in the park.

Oh yeah, I forgot about that one. Northam will perform well on the Eastern Shore, but I'm skeptical he's gonna have significant coattails. Also the same Democratic candidate outspent the incumbent R in 2015, but the R still won by 16 points. If it were an open seat I'd say it's a tossup, but since it's not, I'm gonna say it's a Lean R hold.

[heatcharger]

Here's what I knew going into yesterday night: Virginia Democrats had a great recruiting cycle. The candidates and their campaigns were energized and well organized. They were also well funded and outraised many of their Republican opponents.

But I thought the "Republican DNA" of many of these districts that flipped would end up saving a lot of these Rs even if Gillespie was gonna go down. Instead, suburbanites rioted in the voting booth, as Naso would say. It is now no longer taboo to them to vote a straight D ticket, and that should be a scary thing for Republicans.

Other things:

The HD-13 race is obviously one that is gonna get some national attention because of the circumstances, but I should say that Roem ran a hyper-localized race running almost exclusively on transportation issues. Regardless of my personal opinions about the candidates, it's great that a message like that can be lead to big electoral success.

And wow, the 2019 elections just got stupidly important. Defending 50/51 seats is absolutely not gonna be a walk in the park even if Trump is highly unpopular and even if the Republican brand is permanently damaged in Virginia. The GOP never goes down without trying everything, and they'll always have a lot of money on their side.

And was last night the largest number of Democratic pickups in any legislature since 2008? What a time to be a Virginia Democrat.

[heatcharger]

If Hugo is to survive and HD-94 makes it 50-50, he is a very strong candidate to become Speaker in a power-sharing agreement. He is the last Fairfax County Republican alive as of right now.

[heatcharger]

If Hugo is to survive and HD-94 makes it 50-50, he is a very strong candidate to become Speaker in a power-sharing agreement. He is the last Fairfax County Republican alive as of right now.

Why would he make himself such a high profile target in 2019 though? If he survives this year, he instantly becomes the top D target in 2019

Because there's no guarantee 2019 will be anywhere near as D-friendly an environment as last night was. Off-off-year elections have terrible turnout historically, and plus if he were Speaker he could become a moderate hero and show some accomplishments.

[heatcharger]

If Hugo is to survive and HD-94 makes it 50-50, he is a very strong candidate to become Speaker in a power-sharing agreement. He is the last Fairfax County Republican alive as of right now.

Why don't you think a democrat could become Speaker in a 50/50 situation?

I guess it could happen, I'm just thinking that if Democrats hold more bargaining chips, they can give Republicans the Speakership in exchange for control of most if not all the committees. I really don't know what the mindset of Democratic leadership will be in potential negotiations though. This'll be interesting for sure.

[heatcharger]

@heatcharger: Do you know if DK or anyone else will put out Northam's win by state Senate district? This would good to look out for 2019. There are already a bunch of Republican-held Clinton districts, but I'm curious if Northam picked up any new ones. I'd expect at least one or two.

They should be up on VPAP eventually.

Yeah just have this page bookmarked. Also eventually they'll update the maps for each HoD district, and I assume since they're probably putting in all the precinct data, they'll have the State Senate results as well. They have all the good stuff eventually.

Speaking of which, this should put a lot of fear into Barbara Comstock's heart:

[heatcharger]

When are they going to count those provisional ballots?

When the provisional ballots are validated by the voter. If there were some way to get in contact with every person who cast a provisional ballot, I'm sure Democrats would be working their asses off to make sure they show their voter ID and whatnot.

[heatcharger]

what a joke

What exactly is a joke about all this?

[heatcharger]

Academic elitist looks down on us for taking a little while to count votes. Sad!

[heatcharger]

A bunch of Democrats trying to be populist heroes called for the new tolls on I-66 to be suspended.

Horrible. Congestion pricing is the way I-66 traffic gets better. Sad to see Democrats pander to people who work in D.C. but are too pretentious to take the Metro. I'm deeply disappointed in my Delegate-elect. Wulfric mode: I'll have revoke my endorsement of Jennifer Wexton until she stops these shenanigans.

[heatcharger]

A bunch of Democrats trying to be populist heroes called for the new tolls on I-66 to be suspended.

Horrible. Congestion pricing is the way I-66 traffic gets better. Sad to see Democrats pander to people who work in D.C. but are too pretentious to take the Metro. I'm deeply disappointed in my Delegate-elect. Wulfric mode: I'll have revoke my endorsement of Jennifer Wexton until she stops these shenanigans.

40$ fees are utterly ridiculous

That was only the price of them at peak congestion... in general they were lower. Here's the more important point: solo drivers were BANNED from I-66 inside the Beltway for decades! The amount of people truly affected by this negatively is smaller than you think. If you live in Virginia and work in DC, you were probably already taking the Metro or carpooling to take use the HOV lanes on I-66.

Also the tolls are operated by the state, not some private firm. All of the money is going directly back into I-66 improvements. Some people must think we should just have 14 lane-wide highways like they do in L.A so everyone can drive. Too bad!

[heatcharger]

The solution is lane expansion (being done), capped prices (not being done due to the need for funding expansion via other means, i.e., taxes, which the HoD won't go for), and rail extension which, naturally the downstate folks won't pay for because BIG GUBMINT, EVIL UNIONS (they are doing extensions of WMATA out to Dulles but that still has taken decades and it is still not finished.

Sir, the WMATA expansion to Dulles broke ground in 2009 and will be done in 2020. Let's tone down the hyperbole. Also lol at the idea that the solution is lane expansion. Find out what induced demand is. Yes, it is fine that an additional eastbound lane is being constructed inside the Beltway since it'll be consistent with the rest of the highway, but we don't need massive freeways cutting through beautiful Arlington County. Not everyone needs to drive, okay?

Anyways I was just angry that these vicious Democrats think they're doing something heroic by calling for the suspension of these tolls. This is useless virtue signaling, and hopefully they'll quit it once they're reminded they can't have free stuff.

[heatcharger]

Excuse me, but VDOT never claimed that $17 would be the peak toll. And guess what, the daily averages have been below that. The invisible hand is working its magic.

And I agree that $40 is too much to drive inside the Beltway. Here are some old-fashioned solutions: take the Metro or stick one person in your car and drive it for free just like before. Let me reiterate: these tolls are not affecting anyone who was driving on I-66 for free before.

People are just whining because they think tolls are unfair even if they aren't actually paying them. The people who can afford to pay it will get a faster (and maybe cheaper compared to Metro) ride than before; the people who can't will continue to commuting the exact same way as before. And oh yeah, because of this there will be more money in the pot for the I-66 improvements outside the Beltway.

[heatcharger]

This. Though personally I think that the carpool lanes should be brought back. Or, test a system in which tolls apply but only to single drivers (this has several ways in which it could go wrong, i.e. "how to check number of people efficiently", but...it could work).

Maybe you should keep up with the news, young man. What you just advocated for is EXACTLY what is being implemented right now. The "carpool lanes" haven't gone anywhere. Single drivers were not allowed at all on the road before, and now they are with the caveat of paying a toll.

[heatcharger]

HD-40 recount underway in Fairfax and PWC.

[heatcharger]

What's the likely verdict?

Hugo's picked up 2 votes in one Fairfax precinct and 1 in a Prince William precinct so far. Hugo had a 106 vote lead going into today; I'd say he's favored to survive.

[heatcharger]

I meant likely verdict in regards to the balance of power in the state legislature.

What about the one where the Republican was leading by 12 votes?

Pretty much comes down to the HD-94 recount where the R leads by 10 votes, and that recount will start on Dec. 19. If everything holds it will be a 51-49 R majority.

[heatcharger]

Recount done in both counties. Tanner picked up 14 votes; Hugo picked up 7 votes. Hugo wins by 99 votes.

[heatcharger]

Why didn't Perriello win the nomination? He would've lost this district by 10 points and spared us these theatrics