Trump approval ratings thread, 1.4

[Sorenroy]

SurveyMonkey, Aug. 22-24, 4362 adults including 3843 registered voters.  This is not the regular SurveyMonkey weekly tracker. 

[...]

Do you believe that Donald Trump’s campaign colluded with the Russian government to influence the 2016 presidential election?

Adults: Yes 49, No 46
RV: Yes 52, No 47


As you may know, President Trump’s former lawyer Michael Cohen claimed that Trump directed him to make illegal payments to two women to stay silent about affairs they had with Trump. Do you believe Cohen’s claims?

Adults: Yes 64, No 31
RV: Yes 67, No 30


Would you like to see Congress begin the process to impeach President Trump?

Adults: Yes 44, No 51
RV: Yes 44, No 53

According to the link provided, 10% of those who approve of Trump believe that his campaign colluded with Russia, 34% believe Trump directed Cohen to make the illegal payments, and 6% believe that Trump should be impeached. While you can still approve of the job someone is doing while also thinking their actions are illegal, it is interesting that over 1/3 of Trump supporters believe that he is, in fact, directing his subordinates to engage in illegal activities.

[Sorenroy]

EPIC-MRA, WOOD-TV (NBC-8, Grand Rapids/Kalamazoo)

Michigan:

 

Practically identical to the IPSOS/Reuters poll of Michigan. A rather frosty reception... and it is only early autumn in Michigan.

More details:

Michigan: Epic/MRA, Sep. 21-25, 600 likely voters

How would you rate the way that Donald Trump is doing as president?

Excellent 18
Pretty good 21
Just fair 16
Poor 43

It's really irritating that polling agencies ask these kind of questions and then show in the topline that people who said that the job Trump is doing as president is "just fair" are represented as having a negative opinion. If I had a "just fair" opinion of someone I would likely also be in the "somewhat favorable" category.

[Sorenroy]

EPIC-MRA, WOOD-TV (NBC-8, Grand Rapids/Kalamazoo)

Michigan:

 

Practically identical to the IPSOS/Reuters poll of Michigan. A rather frosty reception... and it is only early autumn in Michigan.

More details:

Michigan: Epic/MRA, Sep. 21-25, 600 likely voters

How would you rate the way that Donald Trump is doing as president?

Excellent 18
Pretty good 21
Just fair 16
Poor 43

It's really irritating that polling agencies ask these kind of questions and then show in the topline that people who said that the job Trump is doing as president is "just fair" are represented as having a negative opinion. If I had a "just fair" opinion of someone I would likely also be in the "somewhat favorable" category.

If you consider the "fair" people those who are truly up for grabs, these polls make a lot of sense. 43% definitely will vote for anyone but Trump and 39% will voter for him.  This means Trump can only win Michigan if the economy is still as strong AND he runs and substantially better campaign than his Democratic challenger. If one of those things is true and the other isn't, he will probably lose the way Bush did both times. If none of those things are true, he will lose about as badly as Romney did there.

I agree with what you're saying here, people who say their opinion of someone is "fair" are, to some extent, up for grabs. However, what I have a problem with here is that rather than lead with the fact they asked a excellent, good, fair, poor question, this polling organization decided to use the words "positive" and "negative" in their topline. In my opinion, you should remain consistent in the way you publish the information you collect.

[Sorenroy]

Fox News Polls out today asked potential voters their views on President Donald Trump. Registered voter numbers shown with change from last month, likely voters shown below. North Dakota shows "All Eligible Voters" with change from last month.


Arizona: 9/29-10/2, 806RV/716LV

Approve: 51% (+3)
Disapprove: 47% (-2)

LV: 51/47


Indiana: 9/29-10/2, 806RV/695LV

Approve: 51% (-1)
Disapprove: 47% (+1)

LV: 52/46


Missouri: 9/29-10/2, 805RV/683LV

Approve: 53% (+4)
Disapprove: 45% (-3)

LV: 54/45


North Dakota: 9/29-10/2, 801RV/704LV

Approve: 62% (+8)
Disapprove: 36% (-6)

LV: 64/35


Tennessee: 9/29-10/2, 806RV/666LV

Approve: 60% (+4)
Disapprove: 37% (-2)

LV: 60/39

[Sorenroy]

Just a reminder: I will be starting a new Thread, trump approval ratings, 2.0 just before or just after Election Day, 2018  practically from scratch. All data here will be obsolete, as much will have changed. We will be getting data from a different set of states based upon new sets of gubernatorial and Senate races and from approval and disapproval of newly-elected politicians. I expect new stories of investigation of the President and his associates.

There will be economic news (especially if bad) and events from gaffes of the President to new or re-starting wars. We will see if certain pols up for re-election will fare better than Trump in their states. 

I don't agree that the data here will be obsolete come election. While I'm sure opinions will change naturally as Democrats in the House begin investigating Trump, that doesn't seem to be enough to invalidate earlier information just because an election happened. Sure, elections are important, but they don't magically shift public opinion of the president on their own. That being said, a new thread starting November 7th could be a good idea because it will shift discussion of the data by people on the forum. However, it should be 1.5, not 2.0. 2.0 strikes me as much more of a second term type deal. Would you do a 3.0 after November 3rd, 2020? That doesn't make sense.

[Sorenroy]

Oklahoma, Sooner Poll. Favorability poll. We don't see much polling from Oklahoma.

Favorable 58% (very 42%) -- unfavorable 50% (very 33%)

Because it is favorability I am not mapping it.

...first time ever -- I got polled by Rasmussen!

I'm gonna make a wild guess and say that Trump's unfavorable here is not 50%, as it currently puts the total at 108%. I wish I could help by giving what the current numbers really are, but try my best I cannot find this poll (not on their website or Twitter). Assuming Trump's unfavorable is 40%, this represents about a one point decline in favorability and a three point increase in unfavorability from Sooner's last poll in mid September.

[Sorenroy]

FOX seems to have exit polls for all 50 states, they along with AP did their own exits and the JA seem different than the ones on CNN. Lower in WI/MN/NV. In WI it's 43/56, in MN 41/58, in NV 45/54. The Fox results seem to jive more with the election results in those states, no R in MN really got more than 42%, Heller/Laxalt got around 45%, Vukmir got around 45%.

https://www.foxnews.com/midterms-2018/voter-analysis

Only 47 states, not all 50:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

That being said, North Carolina (I didn't look at the other two) did have several statewide elections. A Supreme Court seat, 3 Appeals Court seats, and 6 Constitutional Amendments were on the ballot statewide.

[Sorenroy]

There's a big difference between the election being Dem 46, Trump 43, Other 11, and the election being, like, Dem 55, Trump 43, Other 2. Not sure which of the two you're describing.

I was thinking somewhere in the middle of that, say Dem 50, Trump 43.

Based on 2012 and 2016 PVI, what a two way race might look like:

Dem. Challenger — 347 EV (53.76%)
Donald Trump — 191 EV (46.24%)

Margin: ≤5% shown as 30%, ≤10% shown as 40%, >10% shown as 60%.


Five closest districts:

NE-02: 50.15% R - 49.85% D
North Carolina: 50.75% D - 49.25% R
Ohio: 50.84% D - 49.16% R
Arizona: 51.03% R - 48.97% D
Georgia: 51.09% R - 48.91% D

[Sorenroy]

There's a big difference between the election being Dem 46, Trump 43, Other 11, and the election being, like, Dem 55, Trump 43, Other 2. Not sure which of the two you're describing.

I was thinking somewhere in the middle of that, say Dem 50, Trump 43.

Based on 2012 and 2016 PVI, what a two way race might look like:

Dem. Challenger — 347 EV (53.76%)
Donald Trump — 191 EV (46.24%)

Margin: ≤5% shown as 30%, ≤10% shown as 40%, >10% shown as 60%.


Five closest districts:

NE-02: 50.15% R - 49.85% D
North Carolina: 50.75% D - 49.25% R
Ohio: 50.84% D - 49.16% R
Arizona: 51.03% R - 48.97% D
Georgia: 51.09% R - 48.91% D

A slight adjustment, if 2020 has the same PVI shift as 2008&2012 to 2012&2016 had:

Dem. Challenger — 350 EV (53.76%)
Donald Trump — 188 EV (46.24%)

Margin: ≤5% shown as 30%, ≤10% shown as 40%, >10% shown as 60%.


Five closest districts:

Georgia: 50.19% D - 49.81% R
NE-02: 50.27% D - 49.73% R
North Carolina: 51.01% D - 48.99% R
Ohio: 51.16% R - 48.84% D
Wisconsin: 51.33% D - 48.67% R


Honestly, I see this as the more likely map: with Trump keeping some of his hold on the Rust Belt and northern white states but continuing the downward trend in the Sun and Black Belt.