Which House Upset Surprise is Most Likely?

[socaldem]

If 2016 is a landslide election for the Dems, which GOP incumbents unexpectedly go down to defeat?

Each of the above districts (except AR-02) features entrenched Republicans in territory that could potentially be very unfriendly to the GOP come 2016.

NJ-02 is one of the most Democratic GOP-held seats in the nation. The Dem isn't raising much money but being a warm body in a district that may have a personal vendetta against Trump may be enough. Meanwhile, he's going to be blown out in the Portland (WA-03) as well as the diverse L.A. suburbs (CA-39).

Will Clinton's connections to Little Rock create a boost in AR-02? Will there be a huge anti-Trump backlash in heavily hispanic NM-02?

What other under-the-radar races might feature upsets?

[socaldem]

CA-39, not only is the area bad for Trump demographically but also with no Senate Republican running Royce and other SoCal Republicans might be in more danger than previously anticipated.

I'd agree with this.

In regards to WA-03, Trump's under performance in Vancouver might be balanced out by overperformance in places like Lewis County, and Kelso-Longview.

I agree with both points.

The only caveat on CA-39 is that Royce did quite well in the open primary. He received just over 60% of the vote.

That said, the up-ballot and down-ballot dynamics are awful for the GOP here. Not only is there no senate GOPer running but the more GOP-friendly Senate Dem is Loretta Sanchez who had previously represented portions of the district and is anathema to Orange County GOPers.

Former Assemblywoman Sharon Quirk-Silva is mounting a very aggressive comeback bid in Fullerton-based AD65 (which makes up about 1/2 of the district). Meanwhile, Dems hope to take over the overlapping state senate district. Murdock was previously mayor of Brea, one of the more republican portions of the district.

If he can stay competitive in the Orange County portions of the district, the sliver of L.A. County--the heavily Chinese-American South San Gabriel Valley neighborhoods of Hacienda Heights, Walnut, and Diamond Bar--will put him over the top.

One final note--Orange County has a fairly sizable GOP-leaning business-oriented Muslim-American community. These reliable GOP voters will definitely not be voting for Trump and Trump-enablers.