Targeting 75 House seats?

[socaldem]

Its about time for the northern suburbs to realign at the congressional level...

[socaldem]

I suspect a 25 seat strategy is more likely and productive. Below are the 25 GOP seats that seem possibly in play  in no order of vulnerability. A few are close to wishful thinking, but 25  has a certain ring to it. * seats have no incumbent, and the ** seat probably will have no incumbent.

1   Florida   Harris*   13
2   Texas   Delay   22
3   N.M   Wilson   2
4   Arizona   Renzi   1
5   Calif   Drier   26
6   Nev   Porter   3
7   Wash   Reichert   8
8   Conn   Simmons   2
9   Conn   Shays   4
10   Penn   Fitzpatrick   8
11   Penn   Gerlach   6
12   Ohio   Tiberi   12
13   Ohio   Pryce   15
14   Minn   Kennedy*   6
15   Iowa   Nussle*   1
16   Illinois   Hyde*   6
17   N. C.   Taylor   11
18   Indiana   Sodrel   9
19   Indiana   Chicola   2
20   Indiana   Hostettler   8
21   Wisconsin   Green*   8
22   Colorado   Musgrave   4
23   W.V.   Capito**   2
24   Calif   Cunningham*   50
25   Kentucky   Northrup   3

How many House  seats do I think the Dems will gain in 2006 as of the moment?  The answer is 8. But it could easily bump up to 15 without much of a shock.  I think the higher number would result in  a Dem takeover. I recall the GOP has 231 seats (I could be off), and 231-15= 216. 435-216=219.

And there you  have it.

This looks like a good list to me.

I guarantee much money will be spent on DeLay's race from the Democrat side, but I don't think it will be won unless the GOP loses the House nationally.  It may not even still be won then, unless the Democrats in Texas learn how to revamp their GOTV efforts (which have been terrible in recent years).  The District may be trending Dem, but slowly and only in Fort Bend County (not Brazoria). 

And the Galveston County part is already set in against DeLay.  I don't know whether any candidate (Nick Lampson) can bring any more votes against DeLay from that area than there already are.

I tend to agree with your analysis, though I think the seat can be won with a great targeted campaign even without a wave.

The most obvious opportunity the list is missing is C0-07 Beauzprez (open), Perlemutter being the Dem here...

Other than that, I would include the following races on a target list:

LA-07, if Chris John runs, this is definitely top tier...

FL-22, I have my doubts about the ability of Dems to win against Shaw here, but State Sen.  Klein will make it a race...

PA-18 should also be included if Hafer runs, especially since there might be a good coattail effect from Casey....

NC-08, Hayes is really asking for a challenge now that he's been pivotal in not one, but two trade votes...

That said, I'd probably take Porter and maybe Renzi off the list because they're becoming more entrenched by the day.  Northup, too, seems to be nearly invincible in her district and I dont think too many dems are going to be stepping up for the challenge...we'll have to wait for her to take a shot at the senate. 

[socaldem]

I suspect a 25 seat strategy is more likely and productive. Below are the 25 GOP seats that seem possibly in play  in no order of vulnerability. A few are close to wishful thinking, but 25  has a certain ring to it. * seats have no incumbent, and the ** seat probably will have no incumbent.

1   Florida   Harris*   13
2   Texas   Delay   22
3   N.M   Wilson   2
4   Arizona   Renzi   1
5   Calif   Drier   26
6   Nev   Porter   3
7   Wash   Reichert   8
8   Conn   Simmons   2
9   Conn   Shays   4
10   Penn   Fitzpatrick   8
11   Penn   Gerlach   6
12   Ohio   Tiberi   12
13   Ohio   Pryce   15
14   Minn   Kennedy*   6
15   Iowa   Nussle*   1
16   Illinois   Hyde*   6
17   N. C.   Taylor   11
18   Indiana   Sodrel   9
19   Indiana   Chicola   2
20   Indiana   Hostettler   8
21   Wisconsin   Green*   8
22   Colorado   Musgrave   4
23   W.V.   Capito**   2
24   Calif   Cunningham*   50
25   Kentucky   Northrup   3

How many House  seats do I think the Dems will gain in 2006 as of the moment?  The answer is 8. But it could easily bump up to 15 without much of a shock.  I think the higher number would result in  a Dem takeover. I recall the GOP has 231 seats (I could be off), and 231-15= 216. 435-216=219.

And there you  have it.

This looks like a good list to me.

I guarantee much money will be spent on DeLay's race from the Democrat side, but I don't think it will be won unless the GOP loses the House nationally.  It may not even still be won then, unless the Democrats in Texas learn how to revamp their GOTV efforts (which have been terrible in recent years).  The District may be trending Dem, but slowly and only in Fort Bend County (not Brazoria). 

And the Galveston County part is already set in against DeLay.  I don't know whether any candidate (Nick Lampson) can bring any more votes against DeLay from that area than there already are.

I tend to agree with your analysis, though I think the seat can be won with a great targeted campaign even without a wave.

The most obvious opportunity the list is missing is C0-07 Beauzprez (open), Perlemutter being the Dem here...

Other than that, I would include the following races on a target list:

LA-07, if Chris John runs, this is definitely top tier...

FL-22, I have my doubts about the ability of Dems to win against Shaw here, but State Sen.  Klein will make it a race...

PA-18 should also be included if Hafer runs, especially since there might be a good coattail effect from Casey....

NC-08, Hayes is really asking for a challenge now that he's been pivotal in not one, but two trade votes...

That said, I'd probably take Porter and maybe Renzi off the list because they're becoming more entrenched by the day.  Northup, too, seems to be nearly invincible in her district and I dont think too many dems are going to be stepping up for the challenge...we'll have to wait for her to take a shot at the senate. 

I'd forgotten about Beauprez.  In all honesty, take Harris off of the list and put Beauprez on it, even though Torie has it as #1.  IIRC, Harris always underperformed in that district as compared to Bush and that district is a decently Republican one (for central Florida). I could be wrong on this, corrections will be noted (this is StatesRights territory)

Besides, the state Democrat party in Florida is close to being on life support and in order to run strongly in local races, your state party needs to be in order (no matter how much money is spent nationally).  It's one of the reasons why I rate DeLay higher than does Torie.

I agree with regards to Renzi.  Of course, if he doesn't run, then the seat becomes swing again.  Porter also has the advantage of a strong state Republican party in Nevada that Northrup does not have as much of in Kentucky.  For that reason, I rate her higher.

In short, the Democrats' best chance to pick up seats in 2006 is probably within the Rust Belt/Ohio Valley and the two Connecticut seats.  Just my gut feeling on the matter.

I agree, I think Dems should really put resources into Indiana and Ohio.  In IN-08, the DCCC recruit Sherriff Ellsworth is impressive.  Sodrel is also beatable in 09.  If we can get recruits against Pryce, Tibieri, Chabot, Ney, or LaTourrette, we can play ball there, too...

I'm also hoping for gains in NC with Schuler in 12....

Certainly, Democrats should always pay attention to the NE but I have no reason to believe Shays should be any more vulnerable this year than last.  I think, however, that we have a shot at simmons.

As for the open seats: Co-07 and IA-01 have a generic dem advantage and I'm bullish on Dem chances in WI-08, where Dems have two good candidates...

The California seats mentioned, btw, are likely not vulnerable... Dreier's poor showing was a fluke caused by a talk radio show crusade.  Now that he's sponsored immigration legislation, he's likely okay.  With Cunningham out, there's no way Dems win the 50th...

I'm working on a California redistricting map, however, that would make the 50th and a few other republican seats competitive and that would create a few more dem-leaning seats while also making sure that the lines are fairly neat looking...

[socaldem]

I suspect a 25 seat strategy is more likely and productive. Below are the 25 GOP seats that seem possibly in play  in no order of vulnerability. A few are close to wishful thinking, but 25  has a certain ring to it. * seats have no incumbent, and the ** seat probably will have no incumbent.

3   N.M   Wilson   2

That's District 1, not 2.

And Wilson is pretty entrenched for now in NM-1, although when it opens up (wait for an open NM Senate seat for that to happen) all hell will break loose.

But the Dems still have to make the effort, so the airwaves and the mailboxes will be unsafe as usual next year.

What if either NM AG Patricia Madrid or Sec State Rebecca Vigil challenges?