Why is Oklahoma so unlikely?
They had a Democrat governor before Fallin
Honestly, it's hard to say how certain Southern states will go from here on out. Yes, OK had a Democrat in the gov office prior to 2011, but that was before Obama's election virtually eliminated Democrats as a local political force in the South. They were already on track to lose control but I feel like Obama sped that up and hardened it. Some of these states can be quite uncompromising in their voting patterns.
Of course, since a lot of this happened under a Democratic president that was toxic in many states, perhaps an unpopular Republican president can create an opening. My point is that for all we know, OK could be like TX, where there was no Democrat after Richards despite the persistent success of Democrats prior to her tenure.
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For the poll -
Kansas is the only one I feel comfortable with right now, but not to say definitively that all the others are impossible.
Poll
