All Summer these numbers haven't change much and Beto is running a leftist campaign. Cruz should win, unless it's a full blown wave. 31 net House seats may not be enough to wash over TX
Nope. Cruz has been steadily losing his lead month by month.
Average of May: Cruz +9
Average of June: Cruz +7.5
Average of July: Cruz +5.7
Average of August: Cruz +2.5
Interesting. I trust your statistics, but frankly it's felt like just about every poll results as head cruise up buy one to four points for a month or two now. Your statistics don't lie, but somehow it just doesn't feel like O'Rourke is gaining. Know what I mean?
Agreed, although I do think there has been some sort of trend towards Beto. Just not sure how much:
As you can see, we aren't exactly SUPER flush with polls, and the one repeat poll we've had from QP actually shows an increase on Cruz's margin
(Cruz+3 in April to Cruz+6 in July). We need more data
¯\_(ツ)_/¯
I hope they bomb Texas with polls in October so we can see whether or not Beto gets a surge during the final stretch as people make up their minds. That would, to me, indicate a potential win.