2020 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

PA-16 (Susquehanna):

Ron DiNicola (D) 51%
Mike Kelly (R) 47%

Source

The sample +4 Republican by registration (+5 Republican ID).

Oh my.

Not sure I buy it, tbh, but oh how I would love that.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

North Carolina (Meredith):
Democrats 49
Republicans 38
Others 3

State legislature generic ballot is similar:
Democrats 48
Republicans 38
Others 3

https://www.meredith.edu/assets/images/content/Meredith_College_Final_Poll_Report_October_2018.pdf#page15

Those are jaw-dropping numbers.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

VA-10 (Washington Post-Schar School Poll):

Wexton 54 (-2%)
Comstock 43 (+/-)

Kaine 58%
Confederate Corey 39%

Source

is Virginia that inelastic that Kaine is getting only 58% in VA-10? Stewart is a clown. Kaine should be winning statewide with 58%, not in VA-10.

Corey Stewart is chair of the board of supervisors in Prince Willliam County, which is a substantial part of the district. He has a lot more of a base of support in this district than one would otherwise think. The Richmond suburbs and Virginia Beach is where he is likely to underperform hard.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

https://twitter.com/ChuckLane1/status/1058894977126817792

Maybe those tied polls aren't too far off the mark?

Just lowering expectations. Don't fall for it.

I rarely agree with hofoid and Bagel, but they're right here. This is the same expectations lowering we saw in a bunch of the special elections this cycle so that they could spin just in case they lost.

If there is anything I have learned this year, it is to completely ignore any and all Republican internal polling. It is worse than no polling at all.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

Ipsos/Reuters weekly, week ending Nov. 4, 408 LV

D: 50 (+1)
R: 40 (-3)

This is the pollster that's been typically bearish on Democrats this year, right?

Perhaps somewhat bearish, but on the whole they've been really bouncy. 

Wow, it's almost like all of the movement in the polls is just noise and these are all going to cancel each other out.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

Fuuny how in the Hofiod world “average Americans” are reactionary bigots like him

Hofoid is the only user I have ever muted on this forum, and my experience here has been so much better for it.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

I'm not sure how WaPo ends up with +7/8 nationally after getting D+4 in 70 battleground districts that Trump won by *15* on average.

Because the biggest shifts seem to be concentrated in the more competitive districts. Solidly blue districts are not getting much more blue, and solidly red districts are probably not getting much less red. We are not dealing with a uniform national swing.

This is actually really good news, because it suggests Democrats could (emphasis on could, we won't know until Tuesday) win the House without the large national majority that seemed required a few months ago.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

HarrisX (for Scott Rasmussen), Nov. 2-4, 3000 adults including 2295 likely voters and 1890 "definite" voters (change from Oct. 30-Nov. 1)

Adults: D 45 (+2), R 38 (+1)

LV: D 51 (+5), R 41 (-1)

Definite voters: D 52 (+3), R 40 (-2)

And again all of the noise is basically cancelling itself out.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

Lol!

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1059252213153964032

Looks like he’s been reading this thread too.

It's been a theory for a long time that Nate Silver is secretly an Atlas user.

Watch it be someone like Bagel or NewYorkExpress or something ridiculous

Imagine if Nate Silver was olawakandi.

I remember when he was secretly Poblano on Daily Kos.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

https://twitter.com/ChangePolls/status/1059294038061277184

Partisanship is a hell of a drug

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

Suffolk/USA Today did county "bellwether" polls for Florida and Ohio:

https://twitter.com/davidpaleologos/status/1059474764652298241

https://twitter.com/davidpaleologos/status/1059475832157147137

I really don't consider either of these counties to be real bellweathers any more. The fact that Volusia is tied after going for Trump by 13 and Brown and Cordray are up in Clark County, which Trump won by 19, speaks volumes.

I remember when Elk County was somehow a presidential bellwether for Pennsylvania. Was a great system until it failed entirely.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

Their poll was the most accurate predicting 2016. (Clinton by 2% vs. actual 2.1%)

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/mood_of_america/generic_congressional_ballot_nov05

lol

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

LA Times-

Democrats: 56%
Republicans: 41%

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1Kwhd8oKSfREBcyKFCOopKMvpSFjwxGPo/view

I don't see it being that large, but I'm a little more optimistic we might hit a 10% margin.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

LA Times-

Democrats: 56%
Republicans: 41%

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1Kwhd8oKSfREBcyKFCOopKMvpSFjwxGPo/view

That would mean the Democrats probably pick up over 60 House seats. I doubt that's happening.

The GOP snagged 63 seats with a 7% victory.

A 7% victory but something like an 18% swing from the previous year.

Then again, there are a lot of Republican seats in places like Ohio and North Carolina that could fall rapidly if the polls miss and the margin ends up north of 12%