21st Century Realignment: The Age of Trumpism

[Heisenberg]

This timeline is similar to the old one, but updated with Trump's actual nominees, and more reflective of OTL events. This one beings with a 2018 Elections Preview:

US Senate

Key Polling Averages (from RCP):

Trump Approval:
Approve: 49%
Disapprove: 47%

Nevada:
Ross Miller: 46%
Dean Heller: 46%
None of these Candidates: 4%

Arizona:
Jeff Flake: 44%
Kyrsten Sinema: 42%
Gary Swing: 5%

Montana:
Matt Rosendale: 47%
Jon Tester: 47%

North Dakota:
Kevin Cramer: 49%
Heidi Heitkamp: 44%
Chase Iron Eyes: 5%

Michigan:
Debbie Stabenow: 48%
Randy Richardville: 44%

Wisconsin:
Eric Hovde: 49%
Tammy Baldwin: 47%

Minnesota:
Amy Klobuchar: 51%
Jason Lewis: 43%

Missouri:
Ann Wagner: 48%
Claire McCaskill: 43%
Austin Petersen: 4%
Johnathan McFarland: 3%

Indiana:
Luke Messer: 53%
Joe Donnelly: 43%

Ohio:
Josh Mandel: 50%
Sherrod Brown: 46%

Pennsylvania:
Bob Casey, Jr: 51%
Rick Saccone: 45%

West Virginia:
Joe Manchin: 52%
Bill Cole: 46%

Maine:
Angus King (Ind/Dem): 52%
Paul LePage: 44%

Virginia:
Tim Kaine: 51%
Barbara Comstock: 44%

Florida:
Rick Scott: 48%
Bill Nelson: 47%
Tim Canova (S): 2%

The lone retirement this cycle came from Tom Carper (D-DE). In the race to replace him, Former Gov. Jack Markell defeats ambitious freshman Rep. Lisa Blunt-Rochester in the primary. Republicans punt on this race, instead focusing on the House seat, which is indeed a longshot. Luther Strange went down in his controversial primary to Cam Ward, a young state senator campaigning on building up seniority and against the shady circumstances behind Strange's appointment.
Even with only one open seat, Republicans have lots of potential pickup opportunities, since the map is really bad for Democrats. The only places Democrats have realistic shots at winning Republican-held seats are in Nevada and Arizona, and the latter is looking less and less likely.

[Heisenberg]

Wow, excellent. Really looking forward to this, especially the gubernatorial races. What's the matter with Arizona, though?

Whoa, whoa. Total mistake. Originally, I had Flake retiring, with Schweikert winning a competitive, ansty primary (him, Salmon, Ward, and two some dudes). Then, I came across this article that said he was running again. My bad, I'll fix it. Flake is the GOP nominee.

[Heisenberg]

Governors (After 2017 Dem sweep in NJ and VA, including LG and AG):

Nevada:
Ruben Kihuen: 46%
Adam Laxalt: 46%
None of these Candidates: 4%
Kihuen is plucked from his House seat to compete at Laxalt after Miller goes after Heller, and much of the Dem bench is depleted.

Arizona:
Doug Ducey: 47%
Ann Kirkpatrick: 43%
Ducey maintains a comfortable lead against Kirkpatrick.

New Mexico:
Michele Lujan Grisham: 50%
John Sanchez: 46%
Lujan Grisham opens up a lead in a state that likes to alternate between the two parties for governor.

Colorado:
Walker Stapleton: 47%
Ed Perlmutter: 47%
Perlmutter and Stapleton emerged victorious from their competitive primaries. Stapleton hopes to break 36/44 years of Democratic governors.

Kansas:
Jeff Colyer: 48%
Greg Orman: 46%
After Brownback was sent to work with Trump, Colyer assumed the governorship, and took on a far more moderate stance, passing a tax increase to help close the state's deficit, and easily fending off a primary form former Rep. Tim Huelskamp. This meant Orman's anti-Brownback playbook won't work, and while popular and moderate, Colyer has opened up strong approvals and has the state's partisan leanings on his side.

Illinois:
Chris Kennedy: 51%
Bruce Rauner: 44%
Rauner is pretty screwed.

Michigan:
Gretchen Whitmer: 48%
Brian Calley: 48%
Dead heat, crowded primaries on both sides. Whitmer narrowly defeats Dan Kildee in her primary, while Calley wins over Bill Schuette and John Moolenaar easily in his primary.

Wisconsin:
Scott Walker: 49%
Tim Cullen: 44%
Democrats failed to get a good challenger against Walker, and polling shows it.

Minnesota:
Rich Stanek: 45%
Rebecca Otto: 44%
Tim Gieske (IP): 4%
Stanek, a popular Republican Sheriff from a large, Democratic candidate emerged victorious in the primary after Kurt Daudt opted to stay speaker. Otto (26%), a progressive darling, defeated Erin Murphy (24%), Lori Swanson (23%), and Tim Walz (23%) in a nasty, four way primary.

Ohio:
Jon Husted: 52%
Betty Sutton: 45%
Husted pulls away in his four-way primary. Sutton also wins her competitive primary, but starts out with a deficit against Husted, who is seen as the perfect candidate to unite the moderate and Trumpist wings of the GOP. Sherrod Brown's extreme stances on guns and abortion, way to the left of his average constituent are also expected to provide a drag down on the rest of the Democratic ticket.

Pennsylvania:
Tom Wolf: 46%
Mike Kelly: 45%
Will Pennsylvania end up having two one-term Toms in a row? Top Trump surrogate Mike Kelly beats RRH-favorite Scott Wagner in the primary. This race is expected to be much closer than the Senate race.

Maryland:
Larry Hogan: 49%
Ken Ulman: 45%
Despite Hogan's popularity, his lead is very small. Governor races are not particularly partisan, but in a state this liberal, Hogan may end up like Bob Ehrlich.

Connecticut:
George Jepsen: 51%
Erin Stewart: 45%
Dan Malloy's retirement really hurt Republicans' chances at picking up the Connecticut governorship.

Vermont:
Phil Scott: 49%
Shap Smith: 47%
Scott is popular and moderate, but no Republican can be safe in a state this liberal. Shap Smith, a former state house speaker, is giving Scott a serious race.

New Hampshire:
Stefany Shaheen: 52%
Chris Sununu: 43%
Nothing to see here. Sununu suffered a series of political defeats in a state that's quickly moving away from his party, and he is expected to bring down many top New Hampshire Republicans with him.

Maine:
Chellie Pingree: 47%
Garrett Mason: 44%

Georgia:
Casey Cagle: 48%
Kasim Reed: 44%

Florida:
Adam Putnam: 48%
Gwen Graham: 47%
Graham narrowly beat Morgan in her primary. Putnam defeat Ron DeSantis in his. DeSantis attacked Putnam for never working in the private sector, while Putnam won on his competence, and ran as someone who could bring the state together with his expertice in state government in America's third-largest state.

Other major primaries:
California (Blanket):
Gavin Newsom: 33%
John Chiang: 22%
Others: 45% (totals)

Idaho (R):
Brad Little: 52%
Raul Labrador: 44%
Others: 4%

Wyoming (R):
Cynthia Lummis: 82%
Others: 18%

South Dakota (R):
Kristi Noem: 57%
Marty Jackley: 43%

Oklahoma (R):
Todd Lamb: 75%
Others: 25%

Tennessee (R):
Mark Green: 68%
Others: 32%

Alabama (R):
Bradley Byrne: 54%
Roy Moore: 46%

South Carolina (R):
Henry McMaster: 61%
Others: 39%

[Heisenberg]

US House:

Map of Retirements (light blue means the incumbent was defeated in the primary)
36 members retire (some to run for higher office), and 3 Republicans (Scott DesJarlais, Martha Roby, and Charlie Dent) lost renomination.
.

Both sides have been targeting many races.
More detail will be covered as the night goes on.

[Heisenberg]

Nice. Hoping Sununu goes down in a landslide and Republicans lose everything in NH.

A lot of close races!

Lots of close races indeed. I'll add more detail to the House section, and then get on with the actual election night coverage (which will add more detail to many races).

[Heisenberg]

John King: Good evening everyone, and welcome to CNN's coverage of the 2018 midterm elections.

Wolf Blitzer: It is now 6 PM Eastern, and the first polls have closed in nearly all of Indiana, and the eastern parts of Kentucky. We are ready to make the following projections:

-CNN Projection-

INDIANA                                                                                   
Senator                                                                               
WINNER                                                                               
LUKE MESSER ✓     

Jake Tapper: Messer made his intentions clear very early on, and piled up a lot of money and endorsement. With help from Vice President Mike Pence, his predecessor in the House, Messer put Donnelly awayvery early. Still, Donnelly maintained a consistent 42% showing in the polls, showing the reluctance of many of the state's Democrats to abandon him even as national Democrats threw him under the bus. This proves how polarized the nation is right now.

We also project incumbents are reelected in:
IN-03, IN-04, IN-05, IN-08  IN-07
KY-02 KY-04                        KY-03
Republicans also hold IN-06 (Cindy Ziemke) and KY-05 (Max Wise). Ziemke assumes Messer's seat, while Wise will take the seat of the retiring Hal Rogers, a former Appropriations chairman.
Exit polls also have Republicans up in both IN-02 and KY-06. Both are solidly Trump seats, but Democrats made a big play for them this year with Brandon Mullen and Jim Gray, respectively, as both Republicans have made some missteps. However, Trump remains popular in both seats. Out of pure caution, we will not yet make a projection in either. A surprise Democratic upset in either would be bad for Republicans.

(Analysis)
Ziemke, a leading figure in the fight against drug abuse, won her primary over T.J. Thompson, who burned many bridges since he challenged Pence in 2010 (as a Libertarian), perennial candidate and 2012 runner-up Travis Hankins, and two other some-dudes. 
Max Wise defeated controversial Rowan County Clerk Kim Davis, Lawrence County Attorney Mike Hogan, and coal miner Billy Hickman (fictional). Wise, who lives just outside the district (but his state senate district includes some of KY-05's counties), campaigned on fiscal issues, and touted his young age and desire to restore the seniority Rogers accumulated, perfect for an impoverished district that relies heavily on federal funds. He also received implicit help from progressive groups who opposed Kim Davis, and geography was also on his side. He performed well in the ancestrally Republican southern and western areas during the primary, while Davis, Hogan, and Hickman split the vote in coal country, which also remains Democratic in terms of voter registration.

[Heisenberg]

Wolf Blitzer: Welcome back everyone! It's 7:00 PM Eastern, and now more polls have closed.

VERMONT                                                                                    
Senator                                                                                
WINNER                                                                              
BERNIE SANDERS ✓


SOUTH CAROLINA                                                                                    
Governor                                                                                
WINNER                                                                              
HENRY MCMASTER ✓    

Downballot offices in Florida and South Carolina, as well as Georgia will all remain in GOP hands, and all South Carolina and Georgia House incumbents, including Karen Handel and Ralph Norman, are reelected. John, can you show the viewers what's in on your wall?

John King: Results (so far) for uncalled races:
Virginia Senator (24% in)
Barbara Comstock: 56%                                                                            
Tim Kaine: 42%
Robert Sarvis: 2%

Vermont Governor (40% in)
Phil Scott: 50%                                                                            
Shap Smith: 46%
Bill Lee: 4%

Georgia Governor (32% in)
Casey Cagle: 56%                                                                            
Kasim Reed: 42%
Others: 2%

Florida Governor (18% in)
Gwen Graham: 49%
Adam Putnam: 48%    
                                                                        
Florida Senator (18% in)
Rick Scott: 49%                                                                            
Bill Nelson: 47%
Tim Canova: 3%
Augustus Sol Invictus: 1%

Anderson Cooper: Look at that! Who would have guessed, as recently as three months ago, that Scott would be overperforming Putnam in the early returns.

Jake Tapper: As recently as mid-August, before the primaries, Nelson was up comfortably against Scott. Nelson fended off a progressive primary challenge from State Sen. Randolph Bracy, but it was quite close, 56-44 (Bracy basically combined the Bernie coalition with more Black voters, and Nelson suffered from Dixiecrats changing registration since his first election in 2000). Bracy's well-delivered concession speech got lots of national attention. And the most notable part of Bracy's speech: He refused to endorse Nelson! Soon after, Nelson had a health scare similar to Clinton's 2016 9/11 weekend incident, and Tim Canova went on an aggressive ad buy across the state using grassroots money only.

Anderson Cooper: Murphy's Law: Anything that can go wrong, will go wrong.

John King: Speaking of Murphy, he did not succeed in his political comeback. We can already call the races for state AG and CFO in Florida, appointees Rick Baker and Carlos Lopez-Cantera (respectively) hold off Jack Seiler and Patrick Murphy, known to Lopez-Cantera supporters as Fratrick Murphy.

Wolf Blitzer: This may not be a good sign for the two statewide Democrats, it could mean bad negative coattails.

John King: Here's a look at the House so far:


Republican: 47
Democratic: 23
Too close to call: 4
Polls still open: 361

VA-10 and FL-07 are the two that are most likely to flip, more so than KY-06 and FL-13. In VA-10, no results in from Loudoun, that skews the early numbers more Republican. And in FL-27, Scott Fuhrman beats flawed Republican David Rivera for Ros-Lehtinen's old seat (Clinton won big there).

Wolf Blitzer: We'll take a quick break and be right back soon.

[Heisenberg]

Amazing. Comstock and Scott both doing better than expected. Btw: I wonder what the early NH results look like (Dixville Notch, etc.)

For simplicity's sake I'm treating New Hampshire as a 7:30 PM poll closing state at-large, rather than one with multiple closing times.
Comstock got attacks for supporting Trump's federal hiring freeze, but then she countered by attacking Kaine's support of Schumer's shutdown to protest Planned Parenthood defunding, and by visiting downballot Demosaur (Warner/Kaine) areas in hopes of getting their votes.
Scott I covered in detail.
Maps coming soon!

Good TL doubt it'll actually happen but interesting to watch looking forward to more!

Glad you're enjoying it! Yeah, I doubt Trump will be 49/47 on Election Day 2018, but he has a floor at around 40, and a ceiling around 55. Democrats are almost guaranteed to have a net Senate loss, but it's a matter of which seats fall. Nowhere to go but up for the GOP.

[Heisenberg]

Wolf Blitzer: Welcome back viewers! It's 7:30 PM Eastern and polls have closed in four more states!
We project

All House seats, except WV-02 (too close to call) stay in the hands of the incumbent party.

We also project:
OHIO                                                                                   
Governor                                                                               
WINNER                                                                               
JON HUSTED ✓     

All downballot offices remain in GOP hands (Auditor Keith Faber, Attorney General Dave Yost, Secretary of State Dorothy Pelanga, and Treasurer Robert Sprague). Keith LaRose wins the open OH-16 seat.
Josh Mandel has an early lead in the Senate race.
Joe Manchin is also up in West Virginia, and Alex Mooney is surprisingly struggling in his reelection.

Early returns:
West Virginia Representative, District 2 (42% in)
Carte Goodwin: 50%
Alex Mooney: 45%                                                                             

West Virginia Senator (42% in)
Joe Manchin: 50%
Bill Cole: 45%                                                                             
Charlotte Pritt: 5%

Ohio Senator (30% in)
Josh Mandel: 51%                                                                             
Sherrod Brown: 47%
Scott Rupert: 2%

John King: And updates in previously uncalled races:
Virginia Senator (62% in)
Barbara Comstock: 55%                                                                             
Tim Kaine: 43%
Robert Sarvis: 2%

Vermont Governor (79% in)
Phil Scott: 49%                                                                             
Shap Smith: 47%
Bill Lee: 4%

Georgia Governor (57% in)
Casey Cagle: 54% ✓ WINNER                                                                             
Kasim Reed: 44%

Florida Governor (49% in)
Adam Putnam: 48.6%
Gwen Graham: 48.4%   
                                                                         
Florida Senator (49% in)
Rick Scott: 48%                                                                             
Bill Nelson: 47%
Tim Canova: 4%
Augustus Sol Invictus: 1%

Jake Tapper: Outside West Virginia, this really shows the reluctance of many people to cross party lines. Sign of polarization, which exit polling shows is at an all-time high.

Anderson Cooper: The real story right now is New Hampshire. Both Democratic incumbents are projected to defeat their well-funded, much-hyped Republican challengers by double digits.

NH-01:
Carol Shea-Porter: 54% ✓ WINNER
Dan Innis: 43%

NH-02:
Annie Kuster: 56% ✓ WINNER
Joe Kenney: 44%

Wolf Blitzer: Innis had a badly split primary field, he narrowly won against Guinta, John Burt, and Andy Sanborn. Kenney got the primary field all to himself and focused on the general early, and still got crushed.

John King: Here are the early results in the governor election there: Sununu doing really poorly, he trails by 9 with 38% of the vote in. The map can even be misleading, some of the tiny precincts where Sununu leads, he's up by literally a single vote, like here in Dixville Notch (touches it on the wall, results say Sununu 4, Shaheen 3)!


Here are the results so far for the Executive Council:
District 1: Walt Havenstein vs Edith Tucker (D+1)
District 2: Sam Cataldo vs Martha Fuller-Clark
District 3: Russell Prescott vs Beth Roth
District 4: Joseph Levasseur vs Jackie Cilley
District 5: Dave Wheeler vs Kathryn Forry

Jake Tapper: Democrats have flipped the council. It is not inconceivable that the Executive Council flips from all male to all female. Veteran state legislators and perennial candidates for higher office primaried out male incumbents in districts 2 and 4, while districts 3 and 5 remain very very close.

[Heisenberg]

Amazing.

Love the Democratic landslide in NH (will there be exit poll data for the GOV race?). Also wow@VA getting this close. Republicans really blew it in WV, though.

Here are the exit polls from New Hampshire:

Male: 44%
Female: 56%

Voted for Trump (2016): 44%
Voted for Clinton (2016): 54%
Didn't vote/voted 3rd party/won't say: 2%

Democrat: 55%
Republican: 35%
Other: 10%

Pro-life: 33%
Pro-choice: 67%

Sununu, approve: 38%
Sununu, disapprove: 60%

Trump, approve: 32%
Trump, disapprove: 65%

Ryan, approve: 26%
Ryan, disapprove: 72%

Support RTW: 36%
Oppose RTW: 64%

Want candidates to push Trump agenda: 32%
Want candidates to oppose Trump agenda: 65%

[Heisenberg]

Looks plausible. Considering those numbers, I'd say Sununu is doing relatively well, unless the early returns are skewed towards the GOP. A 9-point loss is a pretty good showing for Sununu here.

Wait for the big Manchester dump to come in.

[Heisenberg]

Wolf Blitzer: It is now 8 PM Eastern, and a whole bunch of states just closed their polls.

Senator                                                                                
WINNER                                                                              
TED CRUZ (TX) ✓
BOB CORKER (TN) ✓
ROGER WICKER (MS) ✓
CAM WARD (AL) ✓

Senator                                                                                
WINNER                                                                              
BEN CARDIN (MD) ✓
JACK MARKELL (DE) ✓
BOB MENENDEZ (NJ) ✓
CHRIS MURPHY (CT) ✓
SHELDON WHITEHOUSE (RI) ✓
ELIZABETH WARREN (MA) ✓
ANGUS KING (ME) ✓

John King: This is probably the best moment of the night for Senate Democrats. All these northeastern states closing their polls. Republicans thought they could put New Jersey in play, but then no good candidate stepped in, and scandal-plagued Monica Crowley, who was named to the Trump team but forced to step down due to plaigiarism, win the nomination in an upset against ex-Rep. Scott Garrett, not that he was a great candidate anyway. Crowley will lose by double digits in a typical New Jersey election (two incompetent candidates).

Anderson Cooper: Not so bright for Democrats, especially not the progressive wing:
OHIO                                                                                    
Senator                                                                                
WINNER                                                                              
JOSH MANDEL ✓
Final Map, Mandel wins 53-46
    

And some good news for them.
WEST VIRGINA                                                                          
Senator                                                                                
WINNER                                                                              
JOE MANCHIN ✓

Final Results:
Manchin: 50%
Cole: 45%
Pritt: 5%
Republicans really seemed to have blown this one. Coal county is still Manchin country, it seems.

Senate map so far:

Republicans: 49 (One seat away from clinching control).
Democrats: 33
Too close/still open:

John King: Switching to governors:
Governor                                                                                
WINNER                                                                              
GREG ABBOTT (TX) ✓
TODD LAMB (OK) ✓
MARK GREEN (TN) ✓
BRADLEY BYRNE (AL) ✓
CHARLIE BAKER (MA) ✓

Governor                                                                                
WINNER                                                                              
CHRIS KENNEDY (IL) ✓
GINA RAIMONDO (RI) ✓
STEFANY SHAHEEN (NH) ✓
(Final NH map, Shaheen wins by 16 points, Democrats sweep all 5 Executive Council seats, win control of State Senate 19-6, State House by 213-187)


The whole map

[Heisenberg]

Jake Tapper: Joining us now is Jeanie Forrester, the chairwoman of the New Hampshire Republican Party, and one of the Shaheen family's fiercest critics. Good evening Chairwoman Forrester.

Jeannie Forrester: Good evening to you Jake, thanks for having me on.

Jake Tapper: So, you got a lot of hype when you became your state party's chair, and were very optimistic when Governor Sununu and the rest of the trifecta were sworn in. But now, after suffering many political defeats over the past two years, Democrats have won everything in a massive landslide, even as Republicans appear to be doing well in some other places. And President Trump is way less popular in your state than he is across the nation as a whole, according to the polls, even though New Hamshire's margin in the 2016 Presidential race was very close to (actually to the right of) the national popular vote margin. What's happening?

Jeannie Forrester: I'm afraid that maybe we didn't galvanize our base that much, and we also received a lot of bad press for Sununu's failed labor reform policies, such as Right to Work which was defeated in the State House. Another thing could be that maybe voters simply want to see a little change.

Jake Tapper: Or maybe, your party is pushing policies too far right for the state? You've only had the trifecta for two years.

Jeannie Forrester: No, no. New Hampshire has always been pretty Republican, and I'm very confident that if everyone who could vote would, and we ran true conservatives to drive out the voters, we would do great. I think there's just too much enthusiasm on the Democratic side, and not enough on the Republican side.

Jake Tapper: How come other competitive states are not seeing massive Democratic waves?

Jeannie Forrester: It's no surprise to see many people reject the same far-left, out of touch, radical policies of the Democrats. They've lost bigly in 2010, 2014, 2016, and probably this year as well, and look who they have as their Deputy Chair: Keith Ellison, who is literally a radical. I think a lesson for us New Hampshire Republicans to learn is not to try to push things that have failed in the past (like RTW) too hard and quickly, and to avoid nasty primaries like the Governor race in 2016, or NH-01 this year that can leave the base divided and not willing to vote in November.

Jake Tapper: And what plans do you have to rebuild your party in the future?

Jeannie Forrester: Well, I am not giving up. I think I have done a great job, and once voters realize what damage this far-left trifecta will do, we'll be bouncing back!

Jake Tapper: Well, after all these losses, I wonder if you even have room to go down further? Thanks for coming on, have a good night!

Jeannie Forrester: You too!

(Results coming in)
Virginia Senator (75% in)
Barbara Comstock: 52%                                                                            
Tim Kaine: 46%
Robert Sarvis: 2%

Vermont Governor (90% in)
Phil Scott: 48%                                                                            
Shap Smith: 48%
Bill Lee: 4%

Kansas Governor (33% in)
Jeff Colyer: 52%
Greg Orman: 48%          

Florida Governor (78% in)
Adam Putnam: 48.8%
Gwen Graham: 48.2%    
                                                                        
Florida Senator (78% in)
Rick Scott: 48%                                                                            
Bill Nelson: 47%
Tim Canova: 4%
Augustus Sol Invictus: 1%
                                
Michigan Governor (23% in)
Brian Calley: 54%                                                                            
Gretchen Whitmer 46%

Michigan Senator (23% in)
Randy Richardville: 53%
Debbie Stabenow: 47%    

Pennsylvania Governor (29% in)
Tow Wolf: 52%    
Mike Kelly: 48%
                                                                        
Pennsylvania Senator (29% in)
Bob Casey, Jr.: 55%
Rick Saccone: 45%                                                                            

Maryland Governor (35% in)
Larry Hogan: 52%                                                                            
Ken Ulman: 47%

Connecticut Governor (24% in)
George Jepsen: 53%
Erin Stewart: 47%          

Maine Governor (26% in)
Chellie Pingree: 50%
Garrett Mason: 47%                                  

Wolf Blitzer: We'll be back after a quick word from our sponsors. In about 4 minutes, we will reach the bottom of the hour and polls will close in Arkansas and North Dakota.

[Heisenberg]

Stabenow, Kaine, Nelson have lost?! Maybe in a Clinton midterm, but they would survive a Trump midterm relatively easily IMO.

Those races are yet to be called.

[Heisenberg]

Wolf Blitzer: Welcome back, it is now 8:30 PM, and we are able to project that Asa Hutchinson wins reelection as Governor of Arkansas, as do all four Congressional incumbents. And now we have a key race alert:

North Dakota Senate: 16% in
Kevin Cramer: 52%
Heidi Heitkamp: 44%
Chase Iron Eyes: 6%

North Dakota Representative: 16% in
(A panelist analyzes):
Republican Tom Campbell has opened up a small lead (52-48) over John Grabinger, a popular Democratic State Sen. from an R+10 district. This is different from the race in South Dakota, which we could immediately call for Dusty Johnson as the polls closed. Campbell defeated Rick Becker in the primary. Becker, a former gubernatorial candidate and favorite of the libertarians, had liabilities, such as fierce opposition to farm subsidies that benefit the state, and agreeing with Greg Gianforte's past remarks about American Indian Reservations being bad due to interfering with free markets. Therefore, he was expected to be the weaker GE candidate. He is also a critic on Trump over immigration, public lands, and social issues. Campbell, a Trump supporter and Cramer ally, won by 20 points in what was seen as a proxy war between the pro-Trump and anti-Trump GOP wings.

US House seats:

Some surprises. Jerry Costello II narrowly defeats Mike Bost to win his dad's old seat. Democrats saw this as a top target after Bost repeatedly made inflammatory comments against Asian-Americans (including later Sen. Tammy Duckworth), and the seat does have some D-heritage. However, it has stampeded right, and with Trump popular in that part of the state expect Republicans to put up a big fight to get the seat back. In MI-10, Macomb County Executive is putting up a surprisingly close race against Paul Mitchell, who has been attacked for poor constituent services. However, the Thumb, which is thought to be a Mitchell stronghold, still has lots of votes yet to be counted, so that may put Mitchell over the top. In MO-02, State Sen. Scott Sifton (D), from a swing seat, is up against his Republican challenger Jane Cunningham, who won a hotly contested primary and is seen as a weak campaigner. In the other open Missouri House seat, MO-06, St. Joseph-based State Rep. Galen Higdon (who won this KC-suburb-anchored primary due to 3 KC-area candidates splitting the vote) easily wins. In FL-07, Simmons (R) has a 2% lead over Murphy (D) with 94% of the vote in. Pat Meehan has regained his lead over Joe Sestak. In Delaware, Bryan Townsend (2016 D primary runner-up) defeats John Marino (R). Controversial Republican Pete Sessions (TX-32) narrowly trails Dallas Mayor Mike Rawlings, and Alex Mooney (R-WV-02) may actually lose to former appointed Sen. Carte Goodwin, after Mooney, who has always underperformed statewide Republicans, failed to take the challenge seriously.

Wolf Blitzer: Now it's time for a major projection:
MISSOURI                                                                                  
Senator                                                                                
WINNER                                                                              
ANN WAGNER ✓

This gives Republicans their 50th seat, and clinches GOP Senate control for the 116th Congress.

[Heisenberg]

8:50 PM
John King: Looking at the magic wall, here are some projections:
We can call the Florida Governor race for Putnam (93% in, Putnam up 2.5%). The Senate race remains too close to call (93% in, Scott up 0.3%).
In Florida, Rick Scott is overperforming Putnam in the Southwest, and in Palm Beach, but underperforming elsewhere. Palm Beach is expected to be within single digits due to Canova.

Here in Michigan, the numbers tell a similar story:
                                
Michigan Governor (54% in)
Brian Calley: 53%                                                                            
Gretchen Whitmer 47%

Michigan Senator (54% in)
Randy Richardville: 51%
Debbie Stabenow: 49%    

Richardville's overperformance is in Monroe County and near Ann Arbor, he represented these areas for a long time in the legislature, and his strength is with those who know him best. He is slightly underperforming elsewhere. Both him and Calley benefit from landslide wins from Tonya Schuitmaker and Mike Kowall for AG and SoS, respectively (Democrats failed to put up serious challengers), as well as polarization (many noted that it is hard to imagine a Calley/Stabenow or Whitmer/Richardville voter).

Pennsylvania Governor (50% in)
Mike Kelly: 50%
Tow Wolf: 50%    
                                                                        
Pennsylvania Senator (50% in)
Bob Casey, Jr.: 54% ✓ WINNER
Rick Saccone: 46%

Pennsylvania looks to be a blown Senate opportunity, much like the neighboring West Virginia. Not many ticket splitters, but Casey is overperforming Wolf.

Wolf Blitzer: We'll be back soon, after a few words from our sponsors. Please stay with us, the next polls close in five minutes.

[Heisenberg]

Welcome back, it is 9:00 PM, and we have several new projections:

Governor                                                                                
WINNER
SCOTT WALKER (WI) ✓
PETE RICKETTS (NE) ✓
CYNTHIA LUMMIS(WY) ✓
DOUG DUCEY (AZ) ✓


Senator                                                                                
WINNER                                                                              
DEB FISCHER (NE) ✓
JOHN BARRASSO(WY) ✓

And the biggest one......
FLORIDA                                                                                  
Senator                                                                                
WINNER                                                                              
RICK SCOTT ✓

That's right, Scott has apparently won this by about a little under a point, CNN now projects with 96% of the vote in. Tim Canova's vote total will likely well exceed the margin of victory.

Kayleigh McEnany: Expect the snowflakes to get really angry, and refuse to accept the results. Trump has been delivering and the people are still with him! MAGA!

Jeffrey Lord: Now we can pack all the Federal Court seats in Florida with young conservatives who can stay on for decades.

Van Jones: (Angry): How the hell does some crazy idiot who's done a horrible job beat a well-liked moderate incumbent with a history of crossover appeal. What the hell just went on! This was supposed to be the left's year, and now Nelson lost likely due to some damn spoiler! Now Trump is free to fill up all those court seats with racist judg-

Jeffrey Lord: What the hell? So you call anyone associated with Trump racist, Mr. Whitelash? Calm yourself down, it's just an election. I'm glad to see the people are continuing to reject your stupid failed ideas. Hopefully they also do in Michigan and Virginia, polls apparently did not see what has been happening.

NEW YORK                                                                                  
Senator                                                                                
WINNER                                                                              
KIRSTEN GILLIBRAND ✓
Governor                                                                                
WINNER                                                                              
ANDREW CUOMO ✓

Michigan Governor (80% in)
Brian Calley: 52%                                                                            
Gretchen Whitmer: 48%

Michigan Senator (80% in)
Randy Richardville: 50.5%
Debbie Stabenow: 49.5%    

Pennsylvania Governor (50% in)
Mike Kelly: 50%
Tow Wolf: 50%    
                                                                        
Virginia Senator (84% in)
Barbara Comstock: 52%
Tim Kaine: 48%

King: This was about the point Trump lost his lead, and Clinton (and Kaine) took it over. Comstock is surprisingly holding up very well, and this may be 2014 in reverse. There are still plenty of places left in Loudoun (entirely in Comstock's House seat), and her old state legislative seat in Fairfax, where she always outperforms. This one will go down to the wire.

New Mexico Governor (29% in)
Michele Lujan Grisham: 53%
John Sanchez: 46%
                                                                            
New Mexico Senator (29% in)
Martin Heinrich: 54%
Steve Pearce: 44%                                                                            

John King: Pearce sure ended up being a massive flop (New Mexico Republicans arranged a deal to avoid a massive "logjam" and schism). Looks like he'll have lost both Senate seats.

Arizona Senator (31% in)
Jeff Flake: 53%
Kyrsten Sinema: 45%

Wisconsin Senator (26% in)
Eric Hovde: 53%
Tammy Baldwin: 46%

Minnesota Governor (22% in)
Rebecca Otto: 50%
Rich Stanek: 46%                                                                            
Tim Gieske: 3%

Minnesota Senator (22% in)
Amy Klobuchar: 55%
Jason Lewis: 44%

House:

[Heisenberg]

This timeline is entertaining. That is, it is humorous. What causes Trump to have a net positive favorability (of a measly +2) on the eve of the midterms? While one should not take things for granted, if one were to extrapolate from the present, that is not where we are headed

True, Trump had some rough months at first, but scored wins on tax reform, border security, and a good economy, as well as a healthcare compromise. No major foreign policy failures, and the base was generally happy with his judicial nominations. Ultimately, the very close approve/disapprove is just a sign of polarization I guess.

Good work Heisenberg!

Interesting results out of the MO-2nd right now. Did Wagnar vacating to run against McCaskill really open that district up for the Democrats?

It's only R+6 or something, and State Sen. Scott Sifton seems like a good candidate for the seat, I hear he's up in several early private polls and thinks he has a good chance. There's also a massive R bench there, so I can imagine a competitive primary damaging the Republican candidate.

[Heisenberg]

10:00 PM Eastern Update
Senate map so far:

Republicans: 57
Democrats: 36
Too close/still open: 7

Governors:

Many races came very, very close.
Vermont: Democrats narrowly won. Despite Scott's popularity, he could not overcome the Democratic lean of his state, and Democrats did not split their tickets as much as they did two years ago.
Kansas: Lt. Gov. Jeff Colyer pulls a 4% win. He successfully distanced himself from his unpopular predecessor to keep the governorship in his party's hands.
Maryland: In a stunning upset, Hogan is ousted (albeit narrowly), basically ending up like Bob Ehrlich.

House:


Here's the picture:
Democrats knocked off scandal-ridden Pete Sessions in TX-32 with Dallas Mayor Mike Rawlings. Democrats punted contesting similar seats to go all in on this one. Abbott and Cruz both won this seat easily, as did other statewide Republicans, so this could be solely the result of Sessions's racist remarks in a rapidly-diversifying district. In AZ-01, Gary Kiehne's bid against O'Halloran appears to be falling short. In the neighboring AZ-02, Martha McSally trails Victoria Steele in this Romney-Clinton seat. In NV-04, Lucy Flores (D, Bernie bot) has a slim lead against flawed perennial candidate Danny Tarkanian. If she wins, expect her to be targeted in 2020, while the district is D+3, Flores is very polarizing and may fail to crack 50% (thanks in part to the NOTC option). Minnesota has recently found itself to be a major battleground at the House level: three races there are very close (02, 07, 08). And a major win for Democrats, State Sen. Scott Sifton (who will probably have a large target on his back) narrowly wins Ann Wagner's open House seat, defeating Randy Jotte, a flawed perennial candidate who came out of the free-for-all primary badly damaged. The Democrats's chances of taking the majority were slim, but they did target this seat, as it was open. They've made a handful of gains here and there, but they're hoping to win big in California, where they invested a lot of money after two longtime incumbents retired. Things also look bad for Republicans there: Both the Senate and Governor races are D vs. D runoffs.

Montana: Rob Quist, who was defeated Greg Gianforte by 6 points in the special election, is running again after Gianforte's decision to pack it up after #Assaultgate (there is also a second Special Election for the rest of the term due to the early resignation of Gianforte). He faces Fred Thomas, a longtime State Senator and the current Majority Leader. Thomas also has a long history in Montana politics, his grandfather was formerly a State Rep. from the ssame area. This race, along with the Senate race, is super close.
(Montana details coming next, along with uncalled race updates).

[Heisenberg]

John King: Thanks for staying with us. Let's look at the magic wall, shall we.

Michigan Governor (86% in)
Brian Calley: 51.5%                                                                            
Gretchen Whitmer: 48.5%

Michigan Senator (86% in)
Randy Richardville: 50.5%
Debbie Stabenow: 49.5%

Blitzer: Richardville's tiny lead remains steady with the last Wayne County dump all counted. Interesting. Brian Calley also might actually be the first Michigan governor in a long time to succeed a member of the same party.    

Pennsylvania Governor (80% in)
Mike Kelly: 50%
Tow Wolf: 50%    
                                                                        
Virginia Senator (96% in)
Barbara Comstock: 49%
Tim Kaine: 48%

Jake Tapper: Wow, the polls miss a close Virginia Senate race again?

New Mexico Governor (52% in)
Michele Lujan Grisham: 53% ✓
John Sanchez: 47%
                                                                            
New Mexico Senator (52% in)
Martin Heinrich: 53% ✓
Steve Pearce: 45%                                                                            

Arizona Senator (60% in)
Jeff Flake: 54% ✓
Kyrsten Sinema: 44%

Wisconsin Senator (64% in)
Eric Hovde: 53% ✓
Tammy Baldwin: 46%

Minnesota Governor (62% in)
Rich Stanek: 49%
Rebecca Otto: 48%                                                                            
Tim Gieske: 3%

Minnesota Senator (62% in)
Amy Klobuchar: 55% ✓
Jason Lewis: 45%

And onto the polls that have just closed:

Montana Senator (27% in)
Jon Tester: 50%
Ed Buttrey: 48%

Montana Representative (27% in)
Rob Quist: 51%
Fred Thomas: 47%

Nevada Senator (33% in)
Ross Miller: 50%
Dean Heller: 48%

Nevada Governor (33% in)
Adam Laxalt: 49%
Ruben Kihuen: 49%

[Heisenberg]

Wolf Blitzer: Good evening everyone, it is 10:30 PM Eastern time. Thank you for staying with us as we continue to follow the results come in on this busy midterm election night. While we wait, Senator Steve Daines of Montana will join us for a brief interview to discuss elections in his state. Good evening Senator, thanks for coming on!

Steve Daines: Thank you for having me, Wolf.

Wolf Blitzer: So right now, there’s a lot of action going on in the Congressional races in your state. The race for the At-Large House seat, won by Greg Gianforte last year even after assaulting the reporter, is open after he stepped down in disgrace. Rob Quist is keeping it close, and the Senate race is also tight. What are your thoughts on all that?

Steve Daines: Well, some were expecting this to be a bad year for Republicans. But now, with tax reform and healthcare passed, a strong economy, unemployment down, as well as terror on the decline and our presence in the Middle East shrinking, the outlook for us looks more positive. Republican morale is up, and the Democratic base is not as energized as it was in 2017 following Trump’s victories. I’d say his first defeat with healthcare allowed him and Congress to regroup, and the closeness of several special elections served as a reminder to for Republicans to turn out.

Wolf Blitzer: How do you feel about your party’s candidates? Did you want Gianforte to run for another term?

Steve Daines: Greg and I are good friends and have done business together for a while. I encouraged him to run last year, since he has the passion to serve his state, as well as name recognition. I would have been more than open to supporting him, he pleaded not guilty, and I think he has learned his lesson, but he decided to return to private life, not have his scandal drag down the rest of the ticket, and let others have a go. Tim Fox declined a run for Senate, I think he’s planning to run for Governor in 2020. State Senate President Scott Sales, a former 2017 who dropped out before also considered a run (for either House or Senate), but ultimately chose not to. I think he's planning to challenge Fox for governor by running to his right. Ed Buttrey was running for Senate but dropped out after Rosendale entered. Rosendale has won statewide before, and has run strong ads. Fred Thomas, who some are scared might blow it, comes from the western part of the state, hopefully he can neutralize Quist’s strength there. Both are avoiding Gianforte’s mistakes, and have connected to the voters well.

Wolf Blitzer: And what do you see going on in 2020?

Steve Daines: Obviously that’s when I run for reelection. These past few cycles have showed me, Republicans can never take anything for granted in Montana. That’s why I will take things seriously, as Roy Blunt told me to. I’m also looking forward to potentially having the first Republican Governor in 16 years. And hopefully our state gets the second House seat back next decade, it would be nice for the Treasure State to have a fourth voice in Congress. I hope Trump is reelected and Zinke continues to run the Interior Department, he’s been great for our state, especially since he’s the first Montanan to serve in the Cabinet!

Wolf Blitzer: All right, that’s all the time that we have. Again, thank you Senator, have a good evening!

Steve Daines: You too, Wolf!

Montana Senator (44% in)
Matt Rosendale: 49%
Jon Tester: 49%

Montana Representative (44% in)
Rob Quist: 48.5%
Fred Thomas: 47.5%

Michigan Governor (96% in)
Brian Calley: 51%  ✓                                                                            
Gretchen Whitmer: 49%

Michigan Senator (96% in)
Randy Richardville: 50.4%
Debbie Stabenow: 49.6%

Wolf Blitzer: Brian Calley has been elected Governor of Michigan. The US Senate race, which nobody expected to flip, however, is still too close to call.

John King: Looking at the remaining precincts, I don't think the 4% that's still out will break hevvily for either candidate. Richardville has already declared victory, but Stabenow refuses to concede. This one will probably go to a recount.

Minnesota Governor (80% in)
Rich Stanek: 49%
Rebecca Otto: 48%                                                                            
Tim Gieske: 3%

Pennsylvania Governor (94% in)
Mike Kelly: 50.3%
Tom Wolf: 49.7%
                                                                        
Virginia Senator (99% in)
Tim Kaine: 49%  ✓
Barbara Comstock: 49%

Jake Tapper: Tim Kaine has jumped into the lead after the last dump of votes from Fairfax County. He leads by just under 1% (slightly over 18,000 votes), similar to Warner's margin in 2014. Comstock has already called to concede.



Nevada Senator (51% in)
Ross Miller: 51%
Dean Heller: 47%

Nevada Governor (51% in)
Adam Laxalt: 49%
Ruben Kihuen: 49%

John King: (Pointing to Clark County) Miller is growing his lead as Clark County continues to dump its votes. Heller is suffering from being from the northern part of the state. Also, he probably shot himself in the foot by talking about his work against Planned Parenthood and for the right to life in one of his TV ads. In a state where Planned Parenthood is very popular even among conservatives, that seems to have hurt him big time. Laxalt, however, is doing better in the Governor race. He benefits from statewide recognition, a more competent campaign, and stronger debate performances.

[Heisenberg]

Nice work! Daines mentioning Roy Blunt's adivce really cracked me up for some reason, LOL.

Hahaha, I'm glad you liked it. I included that after you mentioned him having the potential to the next Roy Blunt.

[Heisenberg]

11PM Eastern Update:
CALIFORNIA                                                                                  
Senator                                                                                
WINNER                                                                              
DIANNE FEINSTEIN ✓
Governor                                                                                
WINNER                                                                              
GAVIN NEWSOM ✓

OREGON                                                                                  
Governor                                                                                
WINNER                                                                              
KATE BROWN ✓

WASHINGTON                                                                                  
Senator                                                                                
WINNER                                                                              
MARIA CANTWELL ✓

HAWAII                                                                                  
Senator                                                                                
WINNER                                                                              
MAZIE HIRONO ✓
Governor                                                                                
WINNER                                                                              
DAVID IGE ✓

Montana Senator (62% in)
Matt Rosendale: 49.5%
Jon Tester: 48.5%

Montana Representative (62% in)
Rob Quist: 48%
Fred Thomas: 48%

Both Montana races are pretty close. The Montana GOP hopes that this will be the year the state finally has an all-GOP delegation, but it remains to be seen if it actually happens.

Michigan Senator (99% in)
Randy Richardville: 50.2% ✓ Apparent Winner, Recount Pending
Debbie Stabenow: 49.8%

Minnesota Governor (88% in)
Rich Stanek: 49% ✓
Rebecca Otto: 48%                                                                            
Tim Gieske: 3%

Pennsylvania Governor (98% in)
Mike Kelly: 50.2% ✓
Tom Wolf: 49.8%

Republicans take full control in two important midwestern states. This helps them make up for their losses in the Northeast, and in nearby Illinois.
                                                                        
Nevada Senator (70% in)
Ross Miller: 50%
Dean Heller: 48%

Nevada Governor (70% in)
Adam Laxalt: 48.5%
Ruben Kihuen: 48.5%

If Laxalt wins, he'll be facing a legislature with Democratic majorities in both Houses, and Democrats also picked up many of the downballot state offices, too.

(Next update: More on the House races)

[Heisenberg]

11:10 PM: House races:
(Note: I'm retroactively switching Montana a little, Rosendale now the Senate nominee, Gianforte wins the special, but declines reelection due to #Assaultgate).
Jake Tapper: Welcome back to CNN’s election night coverage, it’s been a long and busy night, thanks for staying with us. Joining us now is Larry Sabato, director for the University of Virginia Center for Politics for his take on what is going on. Good evening!
Larry Sabato: Thank you Jake! One thing that really sticks out as obvious is that it appears as if Democrats are beginning to lock in gains in the upscale suburbs. For example. in Houston, John Culberson and Ted Poe won by margins much smaller than what they were used to. In Dallas, TX-32 narrowly flipped, although that was in part due to gaffes made by Pete Sessions. MO-02 also flipped, but again, I’ve written about the downballot elasticity of the area, how Scott Sifton was a strong candidate, and how the bitter GOP primary with weak candidates all helped Democrats. Others, like WA-08, CO-06, GA-07, IL-06, IL-14, and MN-03 fit the trend as well, and, are either super close, or at least less Republican than in the past. Polarization also seems to be increasing even more, as I’ve written many times over the past few months.
Jake Tapper: And what are your thoughts about California?
Larry Sabato: The California results shouldn’t be too surprising. The DCCC has gone all in to target many seats in Orange County and the Central Valley. I predicted CA-10, CA-21, CA-25, CA-39, CA-48, and CA-49 to flip in my final projections, with CA-45 and even CA-42 and CA-50 being much closer than initially expected. What isn’t helping Republicans there is their national playbook: focusing on retaining as many Trump voters as possible. Their populist, socially conservative, nationalist message that is defining the new Republican Party does not play well in these super wealthy areas. It seems to be playing well in rural Minnesota, where they’ve gained two seats and are close to reclaiming a third, and will likely have strong benefits for them in the future in the Midwest. PA-17 (another 2016 rematch) now has Connolly narrowly leading with 95% in.
Jake Tapper: Other than California and wealthier suburbs, where has this new Republican playbook proven costly to them tonight?
Larry Sabato: Other areas in the Southwest (changing demographics), this is where Republicans pay for their gains in the Rust Belt. Places like CO-06 and AZ-02 were never that Republican-leaning to begin with, but the brand of Republicanism they favored was pretty different from that of Trump. Needless to say, both were top Democratic targets. It was clear that both had lots of #NeverTrump Republicans, and these were places that flipped. Martha McSally also had closely allied herself with John McCain, and her ambition to replace him in 2022 was known, though it could be thwarted with the loss. In the more conservative AZ-01, which Trump won, Republicans thought Gary Kiehne could knock off Tom O’Halloran, but he fell short after several missteps on the campaign trail.
Jake Tapper: And Larry, have you seen any notable exceptions to the trend so far?
Larry Sabato: Yes. IL-12 is an obvious one, though that was very narrow, the Democratic candidate was exceptionally strong (the son of a longtime, popular Democrat who used to represent the district), and the Republican incumbent made a ton of stupid mistakes and made racist remarks. FL-07 and NV-03 would appear to be #NeverTrump districts, but both are marginally Republican downballot, and both are held by freshmen Democrats who won narrowly last cycle. Republicans felt the need to go all in before they get too entrenched. Stephanie Murphy was especially targeted for her extreme focus on Russiagate, which is a sign that people are really sick of hearing about Russia, especially with Mueller’s probe coming to a close and no evidence. NV-03 is also interesting because while Democrats are doing well in the Senate and Legislative races, Republicans are up here and in the Gubernatorial race. Still, it's a swing seat, went for Trump, and a little more Republican downballot.
Jake Tapper: Thank you Larry, have a great evening!
Larry Sabato: You too, Jake!
John King: Here is the House map as of now:

[Heisenberg]

Wolf Blitzer: Right now we have some breaking news out of New Hampshire. It is late in the night, and the last legislative races have all been called. The crowd is exuberant at Stefany Shaheen's watch party, as Democrats across New Hampshire have made historic gains despite a not-so-friendly environment elsewhere. Also of note, this watch party is disproportionately female, Shaheen did come under attack for giving preference to females when hiring campaign managers, and for providing tickets to the watch party at her headquarters. In case you missed it, here is part of her speech that has quickly been praised my many feminists across the country:

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New Hampshire Executive Council:
District 1: Edith Tucker
District 2: Martha Fuller-Clark
District 3: Beth Roth
District 4: Jackie Cilley
District 5: Kathryn Forry

Wolf Blitzer: John, does your magic wall have the State Senate results?
John King: It sure does!
New Hampshire State Senate, 2019-20 Session:

1. Jeff Woodburn (D)
2. Carolyn Mello (D)
3. Jeb Bradley (R)
4. David Watters (D)
5. Patricia Higgins (D)
6. James Gray (R)
7. Harold French (R)
8. Ruth Ward (R)
9. Jeanne Dietsch (D)
10. Jay Kahn (D)
11. Gary Daniels (R)
12. Peggy Gilmour (D)
13. Bette Lasky (D)
14. Sharon Carson (R)
15. Dan Feltes (D)
16. Kathleen Kelley (D)
17. Nancy Fraher (D)
18. Donna Soucy (D)
19. Kristi St. Laurent (D)
20. Ann Kanamine (D)
21. Rebecca McBeath (D)
22. Chuck Morse (R)
23. Alexis Simpson (D)
24. Beverly Hollingworth (D)
Control: 17 D-7 R
The State House will have a 270-130 Democratic majority.

Several seats that were not expected to be competitive flipped, and the Democrats have a large majority that nobody would have expected when the maps were drawn. And as Gov.-elect Shaheen pointed out, it is majority female. I wonder if all the new female freshman Democrats will keep Woodburn as their party's Senate leader when the legislature convenes?

Jake Tapper: From the sound of her speech, I think she's hinting at a possible coup against male leaders in the New Hampshire Democratic Party.