OH: More Money Stuff (August)

[BuckeyeNut]

Sort of related to the above, The Dispatch has released its list of the 22 legislative seats to watch this cycle, and I agree by and large. (I do think the Athens-based 94th is more competitive than they do, and I don’t feel great about our candidate in the suburban 6th.)

[BuckeyeNut]

Zack Space is now up on TV, meaning the only candidate who aren't are Keith Faber, Rob Richardson, and Robert Sprague.

[BuckeyeNut]

I’d honestly expect HD-95, which went to trump HARD to flip before the 3rd, 7th, 16th, or 23rd. Tommy Greene really should have given in another run in the 16th, but he’s moved on to better things. Oh well. District 41 is another race flying under the radar.

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A poll commisioned has DeWine +1 and Brown +12 in two new polls with MANY undecideds.

[BuckeyeNut]

I’d honestly expect HD-95, which went to trump HARD to flip before the 3rd, 7th, 16th, or 23rd.

I second this. In the 3rd, Gordon dropped out due to health issues and Some Guy(tm) replaced him. I'm glad he stepped up but he doesn't have time to throw together much of a campaign. And I'm not seeing much in the 7th, 16th, or 23rd that gives me hope.

Some Guy (tm), who, for whatever reason, OHROC actually feels the need to go up with negative TV against. Internal polling must be BAD for Republicans in Wood County.

[BuckeyeNut]

Our Revolution is canvassing for Rob Richardson and Issue 1 over Hustle.

Source: they texted me earlier today.

[BuckeyeNut]

WHY don't we have any quality polls on this race?!  Ohio is a key swing state, yet it's hardly been polled.

Yet, we'll get the ten thousandth poll showing Whitmer up by double-digits, or Laxalt and Sisolak trading leads, or Newsom on his way to victory...

It’s getting rather late in the game for high quality polling to be conducted, unless something drops here in the second-to-last full week. Both Marist and Suffolk were active over the past month.

[BuckeyeNut]

Voted by mail the other day, something that may help the downticket Democrats is that, on the actual ballot, they aren’t. Everyone who wants to vote for Sherrod will have to vote for Governor, AG, Auditor, SOS, and Treasurer first. Not sure if it was that way back in 2006 — when Democrats swept all the statewide offices except for Auditor — but if Sherrod is winning in the high single or low double digits, this should be something of a boon. I don’t see how very many people turning out to vote Democrat for Senator could skip FIVE whole races.

[BuckeyeNut]

Registered Democrat turnout has tripled in deep red but educated and wealthy Butler County, where Democrats have also doubled their share of the early vote.

[BuckeyeNut]

https://twitter.com/ButlerDemocrats/status/1056137411439267841

Butler County deserves better.

I think Democrats have about 30% chance of knocking her off. Which isn't great, but it's also about the same chance most people gave Trump. 10 roll of the dice, and we'd take Keller out thrice.

[BuckeyeNut]

Just phone banked for the first time, got to see that ticket splitting in action. Yes I'm voting for Aftab and Sherrod Brown, no I'm not voting for Cordray. Luckily Cordray doesn't need to win my congressional district to win statewide.

That's not how gubernatorial elections work. 

What do you mean? That is indeed how gubernatorial elections work. Total number of statewide votes matters. How well you do in individual congressional districts is irrelevant unless you're running for Congress.

Why are voting for DeWine???

Or are you saying you encountered Brown, DeWine, Pureval voters on the phone? I'm absolutely not surprised by the latter most.

[BuckeyeNut]

Cordray’s base is the Columbus metro, DeWine’s base in the Dayton metro. Jon Husted, DeWine’s running mate, also has his base in the Dayton metro, while Betty Sutton, Cordray’s running mate, has her base in the Akron metro.

The AG’s race pits Cleveland metro’s own Democrat Steve Dettelbach against the Columbus metro’s Republican David Yost. In the Auditor’s race, both candidates are rural; Democrat Zack Space is from the Appalachian Southeast while Republican Keith Faber is from the Northwest Farmland. In the Secretary of State’s race, both Democrat Kathleen Clyde and Republican Frank LaRose are from the Akron metro. The Treasurer’s race pits Cincinnati metro Democrat Rob Richardson against Robert Sprague of the Northwest Farmlad.

DeWine winning Hamilton County in 2006 has little to do with his base being in the Southwest and everything to do with how damn rapidly the Cincinnati suburbs have changed. The last time Hamilton County went for a Democrat at the Presidential level before Obama was LBJ.

[BuckeyeNut]

DeWine winning Hamilton County in 2006 has little to do with his base being in the Southwest and everything to do with how damn rapidly the Cincinnati suburbs have changed. The last time Hamilton County went for a Democrat at the Presidential level before Obama was LBJ.

That may be, but there's almost certainly bleed over between the Cincinnati and Dayton metros just as there is between Cleveland and Akron.

For such a polarized state, I am surprised to see the race deadlocked in the low 40s as opposed to the high 40s (like Florida when it was close). If we win the turnout race nationwide, I think we win OH-Gov by a couple points. Something really doesn't feel right about calling this race a toss-up. I'm wondering if Ohio could be the sleeper state that produces a massive Democratic resurgence.

Eeeeh. Not exactly. Cleveland-Akron overlap because they're part of the same media market. Dayton and Cincinnati are not. DeWine might do a bit better in Warren than he would otherwise, but any local boost won't actually carry over into Hamilton County.

And I would not count on it. Ohio remains very elastic, but the efforts of the coordinated campaign seem to be making nobody happy here. Which is the same as it was in 2016, and the same as it was in 2014. I expect some bright spots next Tuesday, and Sherrod will obviously be winning re-election, but I am not getting my hopes up. Better to be pleasantly surprised than crushed.

[BuckeyeNut]

More anecdotal observations (not from phone banking): there's a lot of pissy Republicans/conservatives /single issue gun voters planning to vote for Travis Irvine. Libertarians will easily get the 3% needed to retain ballot access in 2020.

Excellent news! Takes votes from DeWine so Cordray can win!

Single issue gun voters should prefer Cordray to DeWine anyway.

[BuckeyeNut]

More anecdotal observations (not from phone banking): there's a lot of pissy Republicans/conservatives /single issue gun voters planning to vote for Travis Irvine. Libertarians will easily get the 3% needed to retain ballot access in 2020.

Excellent news! Takes votes from DeWine so Cordray can win!

Single issue gun voters should prefer Cordray to DeWine anyway.

Is DeWine to Cordray’s left on guns?! Surprising!

DeWine and Feinstein were frequent collaborators on gun legislation in the Senate. He cosponsored AWBs, there was some really extreme gun control bill he sponsored that he couldn't attract any support for, he was the first Senator endorsed by the Brady campaign. DeWine claims to be pro-gun now, but we've seen his true colors. And Kasich's flip flopping on the issue shows that if someone doesn't actually care about gun rights, they'll just go whichever way the political winds are blowing.

Cordray was endorsed by the NRA and Buckeye Firearms Association in his previous statewide runs. He argued in favor of gun rights before the Supreme Court. He defended Ohio's preemption law against gungrabbers in Cleveland, and he pursued concealed carry reciprocity with other states.

Sadly, Cordray moved on guns during the primary and didn't pivot for the general. If he had, I think he could've gotten more gun people. Nevertheless, there's only one major candidate who has never supported an AWB and that's Rich Cordray. As someone who cares about gun rights, I trust Cordray on this issue more than DeWine. I can tell he actually values the second amendment, unlike his opponent.

As someone who would happily support a new AWB, Cordray really didn't shift on guns during the primary, so I'm not sure where that perception comes from. Seems like a bit of a lose-lose, though. Pro-gun control Democrats aren't happy with him for remaining conservative on the issue, and pro-gun Democrats are under some mistake impression he "evolved."