OH: More Money Stuff (August)

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Bon Jovi is going to help Renacci fundraise. He's also hired Greitens deputy campaign manager.

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Connie Pillich will not seek a lower office and is running for governor.

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Well, Pillich will make a good cross-over appeal. Especially with her military experience. She also adds some geographic diversity, which might be of benefit, since every other statewide Democrat will be from NEOH. Excepting for Leland.

She also has a fundraising lead. She has $435k in the bank right now and raised $3.5 million last cycle running for Treasurer. Sutton meanwhile hasn't been able to fundraise for the last 4 years she was at Saint Lawrence Seaway Development Corporation while Schiavoni still has to prove himself.

And as down as I was on Sutton for being bad to her staff, she's got hustle. Schiavoni's still probably the most dynamic candidate, but I wonder if he can fully commit himself to the Gubernatorial election with two small children at home.

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Do Democrats have a chance for statewide office in 2018 in Ohio, a 8-pt Trump state?

Definitely, but it's pretty early.

Absolutely. Reagan won Ohio by 11 in 1980, and then Dick Celest won the governorship in '82 by a 20 point margin. The situation was a little different, as Jim Rhodes was a lot more unpopular than Kasich is, but the Republican Party was also a lot more unified then. Trump's major swing is not, as of yet, particularly demonstrative of anything other than Clinton being a poor match for the state.

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Do Democrats have a chance for statewide office in 2018 in Ohio, a 8-pt Trump state?

Depends on the candidates, republicans have heavyweights for governor and AG and if Frank LaRose wins the SOS primary I expect him to win that seat, auditor and treasurer are open

Keith Faber, for auditor, is running and is easily considered a heavyweight. H should clear the primary field, and I imagine Democrats would probably put their eggs in the Treasurer and SOS baskets with regards to downballot offices. Frank LaRose may be picked for LG, or, if Renacci retires, maybe he goes for OH-16, which does not quite include his house, but it does include much of his Senate district, unless someone else runs, and he's more interested in the state level. Didn't some other Republican already announce her intentions for SOS?

The Democrats also have a solid candidate for AG (that and Treasurer are probably the best shots, assuming Leland runs).  LaRose could also very well lose the SoS primary to a weaker, far more right-wing candidate.  Even DeWine is very capable of blowing races if the tide is against him (as we saw in 2006).

I don't think Dettlebach? Someone no one has ever heard of matches up to Yost and his war chest. Yost is generally well respected by both parties.

Clyde can beat Pelanda, she can't beat LaRose. Faber and Sprague/Mingo are beatable.

The dems best hope is Pelanda beats LaRose, and Mingo beats sprague. And by some miracle Renacci or Mary Taylor win the Govs. Primary.

Leland would beat Sprague and absolutely clobber Mingo.  I've been pretty impressed by what I've been hearing about Dettlebach so far and Yost is a pretty weak campaigner.  Yes, Yost has a fundraising lead, but that'll shrink.  Schiavoni or Pillich could beat DeWine in a Democratic year if the Republican primary is a bruising one (as appears likely).

Dettelbach is law school friends with Obama, he shouldn't have fundraising trouble. And Yost is ... kind of a snooze. Yeah, he's established, but his name ID isn't great for a statewide office holder.

[BuckeyeNut]

Do Democrats have a chance for statewide office in 2018 in Ohio, a 8-pt Trump state?

Depends on the candidates, republicans have heavyweights for governor and AG and if Frank LaRose wins the SOS primary I expect him to win that seat, auditor and treasurer are open

Keith Faber, for auditor, is running and is easily considered a heavyweight. H should clear the primary field, and I imagine Democrats would probably put their eggs in the Treasurer and SOS baskets with regards to downballot offices. Frank LaRose may be picked for LG, or, if Renacci retires, maybe he goes for OH-16, which does not quite include his house, but it does include much of his Senate district, unless someone else runs, and he's more interested in the state level. Didn't some other Republican already announce her intentions for SOS?

The Democrats also have a solid candidate for AG (that and Treasurer are probably the best shots, assuming Leland runs).  LaRose could also very well lose the SoS primary to a weaker, far more right-wing candidate.  Even DeWine is very capable of blowing races if the tide is against him (as we saw in 2006).

I don't think Dettlebach? Someone no one has ever heard of matches up to Yost and his war chest. Yost is generally well respected by both parties.

Clyde can beat Pelanda, she can't beat LaRose. Faber and Sprague/Mingo are beatable.

The dems best hope is Pelanda beats LaRose, and Mingo beats sprague. And by some miracle Renacci or Mary Taylor win the Govs. Primary.

Leland would beat Sprague and absolutely clobber Mingo.  I've been pretty impressed by what I've been hearing about Dettlebach so far and Yost is a pretty weak campaigner.  Yes, Yost has a fundraising lead, but that'll shrink.  Schiavoni or Pillich could beat DeWine in a Democratic year if the Republican primary is a bruising one (as appears likely).

Dettelbach is law school friends with Obama, he shouldn't have fundraising trouble. And Yost is ... kind of a snooze. Yeah, he's established, but his name ID isn't great for a statewide office holder.

Dettlebachs never run for anything and is a complete no one, I think he's a massive underdog right now.

Dewine is beatable, not by Pillich or Schiavoni, and Husted would probably throttle those two.

Husted would win easily in the general, but he's far from a sure thing in the primary.  Schiavoni and Pillich are more than capable of beating DeWine in a Democratic year.  Dettelbach is a solid recruit and Yost is a pretty weak campaigner with limited name-ID despite being a row-officer.

Schiavoni and Pillich are going to need a lot of help to beat Dewine, and I don't think either are the front runners in the primary right now.

Dettlebach is the kind of recruit whos competitive against another statewide unknown, he's going to struggle against Yost bad. Also can we call him a weak campaigner when his opponent has never run for anything? His name id isn't great, but it's not terrible, and it's a better ballot name than Dettlebach. I still think Schiavoni should slide down and run for that spot.

Yes. Because as X said, he's really quite boring. Dettelbach needs to prove his hustle, but everything so far paints him as a serious contender.

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I'm still with X. Though I'll admit bias, as I saw him at an event early and that put me on a hype train. However, I think the same can be said of Pillich within the primary. Again, she's starting with $435k on hand and raised $3.5 mil running for Treasuer in '13-14, as opposed to AG or Gov. Sutton, meanwhile, only raised $2.5 mil running in a competitive CD in a good year when she last ran for office. She's also not sitting on anything.

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It's easier to raise money state wide then for congress.

If you're running for Governor. If you're running for Senator. Maybe if you're running for Attorney General. Treasurer, Secretary of State, or Auditor? I'd beg to differ.

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I'm not sure where you get the idea Whaley is a loudmouth? She's a fairly middle-of-the-road candidate, for all the hopes placed on her. Also very unconvinced she'll get in, personally.

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Sure. But I've not meant to say he's entering as some ultra-heavy weight. I'm saying he's a contender who, when he is finally thrown into the ring, should punch in the applicable weight class. It's mid-March of 2017, after all. The primary isn't for another year yet.

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Basically had it confirmed that Whaley will announce next week.

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If you're asking "who?" you're not alone. Kiefer is a former Wayne County Commissioner who hasn't been in office since the early 90's. He tried to make a comeback last cycle running for the State House but lost as a Republican. He's running for Governor as a Democrat.

Why people like this run for higher office eludes me.

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Yes We Can Columbus, a sort of leftist sub-organization with the Columbus Democratic Party, is now an official branch of the Working Families Party.

Also, State Representative Wes Retherford (R-Hamilton) was arrested a few days ago, after being found drunkenly passed out in a McDonald's drive-thru with a loaded gun in his vehicle. Retherford, who was elected to a third term last fall, has been charged with a DUI and mishandling a firearm, a felony.

He hasn't said he'll resign, but the Butler County GOP has asked him to.

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Because of the appointment process alone, no. It's actually a really good move to have someone resign from the Ohio State House, as far as the Caucuses are concerned. If you have a super early replacement, you basically can have someone in the House for 10 years, or the Senate for 12, as appointments don't count toward term limits.

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I believe it's been said he'd need to be in by the end of May.

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Congresman Jim Renacci to file gubernatorial paperwork later this morning. While largely unknown outside of his district, he is one of the wealthiest members of Congress and can play off his early support for Trump.

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If it's open in a good year, the 14th is a fine target. So long as someone other than Wager runs.

I could see, perhaps worryingly, Tom Sawyer trying to make a comeback?

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If it's open in a good year, the 14th is a fine target. So long as someone other than Wager runs.

I could see, perhaps worryingly, Tom Sawyer trying to make a comeback?

Renacci represents the 16th, but yes, the 14th is a good target regardless of what Joyce does.

Oh, right. My mistake.

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I believe it's been said he'd need to be in by the end of May.

I'm surprised that it would have to be that soon. As the Dem field seems to be relatively lackluster at the moment, perhaps he could afford to wait for a bit longer if it doesn't improve in the mean time?

Filing deadline is January / February sometime, but he'd need a full staff and apparatus ready to win a deep divided primary. I'd say may is the latest he could enter barring a field clearing incident

Especially with Nan Whaley announcing "any day now."

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I'm mostly in agreement with what RJJR said, however, there's a small chance Husted runs for Senate.

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In non election news: Former House Freedom Caucus chairman, Jim Jordan and his little buddy, Warren Davidson, who succeeded Boehner in the House, are set to oppose the ACHA from it's right, while Hamilton County-area Congressmen Steve Chabot and Brad Wenstrup seem undecided on the bill.

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The Trump Administration is taking the CFPB, and by proxy, Cordray, to court, and the Justice Department won't be allowed to defend them. Given the seemingly long timeline for taking the CPFB to court, I doubt more than ever that Cordray makes it into the race.

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Franklin County Auditor, Clarence Mingo, will primary State Rep. Robert Sprague for Treasurer.

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Franklin County Auditor, Clarence Mingo, will primary State Rep. Robert Sprague for Treasurer.

I wonder if the Republicans will be dumb enough to nominate him.

Is Sprague really such a good candidate himself?

Leland is a good candidate for the Democrats (assuming he gets in), and I'd be concerned with Leland facing off against Mingo than Sprague since Mingo will likely outperform other Republicans in Franklin County. Mingo's also more likely to outperform with African-Americans across the state.

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She couldn't really do that due to registration deadlines.

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Who's Kasich's candidate?

He has publicly backed Taylor, his LG, in the run up to the race, I dont believe hes formally endorsed, the majority of Kasich's "team" appears to be backing Mike DeWine.

Worth noting that happened after Taylor betrayed Team Kasich when she voted for the new, Trump-approved OH GOP chair, Jane Timken, over long-time Kasich ally, Matt Borges.

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You definitely should not feel that way.

Who's Kasich's candidate?

He has publicly backed Taylor, his LG, in the run up to the race, I dont believe hes formally endorsed, the majority of Kasich's "team" appears to be backing Mike DeWine.

Worth noting that happened after Taylor betrayed Team Kasich when she voted for the new, Trump-approved OH GOP chair, Jane Timken, over long-time Kasich ally, Matt Borges.

In fairness dewines campaign manager is a long time Kasich operative and he was hired prior to that

It's funny, though, given Kasich ran DeWine's people out of OH GOP leadership back in 2010.