Ohio Megathread

[BuckeyeNut]

Over in OH-14, Betsy Rader has released her first ad. It's okay.

https://twitter.com/BetsyRaderOH/status/1036985445916311552/video/1

It's getting mixed reviews from what I've seen, but I think it's solid. Somewhat evocative of Balderson' first ad back in the primaries. Definitely better than the sort of stuff consultants have been telling her to do. "I'm a MOM of TWO gay sons," is not a winning message up here. (And that's not her main message, but you can tell HRC and EMILY's List is pushing that message.)

[BuckeyeNut]

Over in OH-14, Betsy Rader has released her first ad. It's okay.

https://twitter.com/BetsyRaderOH/status/1036985445916311552/video/1

It's getting mixed reviews from what I've seen, but I think it's solid. Somewhat evocative of Balderson' first ad back in the primaries. Definitely better than the sort of stuff consultants have been telling her to do. "I'm a MOM of TWO gay sons," is not a winning message up here. (And that's not her main message, but you can tell HRC and EMILY's List is pushing that message.)

I question whether her wearing shorts riding a bike was the right thing to go with for this ad. She looks more like a mom than someone running for Congress. That's really my only major criticism. The message is good, and definitely better than the crap some people want Dems to run on, as you mention. It's kinda bland, but so are most political ads (apart from hilariously bad attack ads.)

Eh. It’s not a good message for the general public to be MOM FOR CONGRESS. It’s an okay look, though. Relatable, et cetera. Do people really want more stuffy white guys in suits?

[BuckeyeNut]

I like Ken a lot, but that ad does not jive with me. I get what he’s doing, it’s a terrible district to be running in, and he’s done an amazing job, so the Twitter haters from New York — and they are from New York — can go eff off.

It’s just that the ad does not really feel authentic. Ken is definitely a tough guy, and that’s clear to anyone who knows his story, but you don’t get a sense of machismo from him talking to him in person. The original stunt was cool, and running against Pelosi is fine, but he should have just re-cut his introductory video which is MUCH better.

[BuckeyeNut]

Of course, it's not like it hard to make better ads than Steve Chabot. This one always makes me laugh. And in this one, they try to attack him for firing patronage employees. My friend who canvasses for Aftab was like, "uh, that's something I usually cite as a positive."

Jesus, he's scared.

[BuckeyeNut]

Holy heck, Aftab is really tall!

This pic had always made me think "geez, Hillary is really short," but I just realized how fundamentally stupid that is. Asked my acquaintance who knows him how tall he is, he's like 6'4". I'd known he was at least 6 feet tall before but not that tall.

In light of that, how tall is Kathleen Clyde?!?!? She's wearing heels here, but still.

Clyde's like 6'3", maybe 6'2". Space is 6'1" and both Richardson and Dettelbach are 6'4". I saw someone propose the downticket should run under a coordinated slogan of "Stand Tall for Ohio." They were joking, but honestly, I'm for it.

[BuckeyeNut]

The Brown domestic violence crap is back. http://metooohio.com/

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AI8rEyiCSLw&feature=youtu.be

And Renacci is, thankfully, already, receiving massive sh!t for it from basically everybody.

[BuckeyeNut]

Indian community is definitely throwing mad money @ Aftab from all over the country, even if some locals have more mixed feelings. If this dksrruct had Butler instead of Warren, Aftab would be a dead lock to win. As is, I will be surprised if we are winning the House come November WITHOUT him.

[BuckeyeNut]

Much better (and more authentic) Harbaugh ad.

[BuckeyeNut]

The Cincinnati Enquirer seems to be very anti-Aftab.

It’s ... not? See 2016 coverage. They might still like Chabot more though.

[BuckeyeNut]

Ben + Jerry's is naming an ice cream flavor after Aftab.

Also, Ohioguy, can you change the title and make this a general "Ohio House Thread"?

[BuckeyeNut]

Eh, this is a legitimate ethics issue, even if ultimately minor. Unfortunately, Democrats have to play against an ethical-double standard in much of the country, including Cincinnati, and Aftab should have known better.

[BuckeyeNut]

Ehh, this isn’t gonna make much of a difference.  Tilt D —> Tilt D

You've reminded me I need to update my House predictions.

I agree OH-01 is a Tilt D race now. I also need to move OH-12 back down to Lean R from Likely R. And sadly, I think, it's time to move OH-07 back up to Likely R from Lean R. Even though OH-07 and OH-14 have the same DPI, voters in the Cleveland and Akron suburbs, as well as Lake County, are truly a different breed than those in, say, Canton.

I also think OH-10 might be down to Likely R from Very Likely R.

[BuckeyeNut]

Aftab should've waited until 2020 to run honestly, it never looks good jumping to another office almost immediately after getting elected to one. Sadly, I think his political career is probably over after this. Sometimes its all about timing if you ever want to be successful in politics.

lol no. He'll be fine.

[BuckeyeNut]

I'll just do my ratings (no tossups) while there's a gap in the thread:

Generally nice ratings, and welcome to the forum! Two things, though.

1: OH-08 being safe has nothing to do with Davidson being a freshman. John Boehner had that seat drawn for him to make sure he never faced a remotely competitive challenge.

2: Sherrod is definitely Likely D. All but Safe, essentially. Renacci hasn't lead a single poll, including numerous internals.

[BuckeyeNut]

For those in the know, what's the general thinking on OH-14? Sabato has the race at Lean R (others Likely R), but Democrats seem to have a reasonably strong candidate and it's a pretty swingy district at the presidential level. Apart from OH-01 and OH-12 (and maybe OH-10), it seems to be the only other competitive House race in the state. Right now, it's unfortunately looking like Ohio was the most successful gerrymander this decade.

The Republican incumbent is also quite strong. There are plenty of yard signs for Rader but she's not running against a slouch.

I really envy the people of Pennsylvania for having their districts redrawn, this gerrymander is the pits. OH-1 ought to be at least Likely D.

Hell, it would be under the 2002-2012 lines...

[BuckeyeNut]

The campaign finance hit is sticking, looks like. Even though the average of poll results still only show R+5. It'll be interesting to see how things look in the twelfth, which hasn't been publicly polled since the special.

[BuckeyeNut]

Remember when Atlas was convinced this was a tossup? Some of the 2017 posts on this race aged horribly.

In fairness, 2017 posts assumed a much more competent opponent.

And Mandel wasn't even that strong in the first place.

[BuckeyeNut]

In an ironic twist, Pelosi's House Majority PAC is making a $54k mail buy in OH-07. The irony is that Harbaugh was the first Democratic candidate to run against Pelosi this cycle.

[BuckeyeNut]

HMPAC probably doesnt play in Likely R races all that often, but it is a relatively small buy. I’m dying for some polls from the House races outside of OH-01 (ex: OH-07, OH-10, OH-14) and am frankly shocked there hasn’t been public polling for the OH-12 rematch, which is somehow looking more competitive than OH-01 afterall.

[BuckeyeNut]

I would love to see Harbaugh ride again, but I think he’s done after this, assuming he loses.

[BuckeyeNut]

10,000 new college-aged voters have registered in OH-12 since the special election in August.

OH-12 is home to part of THE Ohio State University as well as Otterbein University in Franklin County, Ohio Wesleyan University in Delaware County, and Dennison College in Licking County.

[BuckeyeNut]

Ohio Elections Commission hearing was today, charges against Aftab were DISMISSED. He did have to pay a $100 fine because of a clerical error (money to pay for a photographer was paid from the wrong account.) Definitely not the results COAST and Chabot wanted though.

https://twitter.com/Enquirer/status/1058112696879587328

If he loses on Tuesday, he needs to run a fierce, no-holds barred, total revenge campaign against Chabot in 2020.

Absolutely not. He needs to go back to the CoC's office and sit quiet for another term and a half.

[BuckeyeNut]

Ohio Elections Commission hearing was today, charges against Aftab were DISMISSED. He did have to pay a $100 fine because of a clerical error (money to pay for a photographer was paid from the wrong account.) Definitely not the results COAST and Chabot wanted though.

https://twitter.com/Enquirer/status/1058112696879587328

If he loses on Tuesday, he needs to run a fierce, no-holds barred, total revenge campaign against Chabot in 2020.

Absolutely not. He needs to go back to the CoC's office and sit quiet for another term and a half.

Agreed. At the very least he needs to wait until after redistricting. He'd have no issue winning in 2022 if Trump wins a second term, otherwise 2024 would be his best shot. Honestly he might be able to win in 2022 even with a Democrat holding the presidency if the new district is favorable enough, but why push it?

He could also run for mayor or county prosecutor if he's interested. But those aren't the best paths to statewide office so he'll probably pass on those. Too bad, I hate Sittenfeld and Deters.

He’d have competition with Zach Klein down the line, but if Aftab ran for County Prosecutor it wuld be a decent launchig pad to Attorney General.

[BuckeyeNut]

Ohio Elections Commission hearing was today, charges against Aftab were DISMISSED. He did have to pay a $100 fine because of a clerical error (money to pay for a photographer was paid from the wrong account.) Definitely not the results COAST and Chabot wanted though.

https://twitter.com/Enquirer/status/1058112696879587328

If he loses on Tuesday, he needs to run a fierce, no-holds barred, total revenge campaign against Chabot in 2020.

Absolutely not. He needs to go back to the CoC's office and sit quiet for another term and a half.

Agreed. At the very least he needs to wait until after redistricting. He'd have no issue winning in 2022 if Trump wins a second term, otherwise 2024 would be his best shot. Honestly he might be able to win in 2022 even with a Democrat holding the presidency if the new district is favorable enough, but why push it?

He could also run for mayor or county prosecutor if he's interested. But those aren't the best paths to statewide office so he'll probably pass on those. Too bad, I hate Sittenfeld and Deters.

He’d have competition with Zach Klein down the line, but if Aftab ran for County Prosecutor it wuld be a decent launchig pad to Attorney General.

As long as he stays out of the muck that is city politics. There's no way to come out of that looking good in Cincinnati.

I don't see Klein beating Aftab in a primary. Maybe that's my Cincinnati bias but that's how I see it.

It would be an interesting primary, that’s for sure. No guarantees Aftab runs for County Prosecutor, while Klein almost certainly will.

I know you don’t like PG, but he’s got star power galore, re: Cinci City Politics being quite damaging. But Cranley definitely took a bruising in that final Mayoral primary...

[BuckeyeNut]

Ohio Elections Commission hearing was today, charges against Aftab were DISMISSED. He did have to pay a $100 fine because of a clerical error (money to pay for a photographer was paid from the wrong account.) Definitely not the results COAST and Chabot wanted though.

https://twitter.com/Enquirer/status/1058112696879587328

If he loses on Tuesday, he needs to run a fierce, no-holds barred, total revenge campaign against Chabot in 2020.

Absolutely not. He needs to go back to the CoC's office and sit quiet for another term and a half.

Agreed. At the very least he needs to wait until after redistricting. He'd have no issue winning in 2022 if Trump wins a second term, otherwise 2024 would be his best shot. Honestly he might be able to win in 2022 even with a Democrat holding the presidency if the new district is favorable enough, but why push it?

He could also run for mayor or county prosecutor if he's interested. But those aren't the best paths to statewide office so he'll probably pass on those. Too bad, I hate Sittenfeld and Deters.

He’d have competition with Zach Klein down the line, but if Aftab ran for County Prosecutor it wuld be a decent launchig pad to Attorney General.

As long as he stays out of the muck that is city politics. There's no way to come out of that looking good in Cincinnati.

I don't see Klein beating Aftab in a primary. Maybe that's my Cincinnati bias but that's how I see it.

Klein would steamroll Pureval; it wouldn’t even be close.  Tbh, Pureval is damaged goods at this point.  He blew a very winnable race by making some pretty dumb mistakes.  The idea that his comeback path (if he has one) will run through a law enforcement office even though part of how he blew the race was by breaking the law strikes me as problematic (to say the least).  I mean, it’s being blown out of proportion, but it is a legit scandal.  Pureval isn’t the victim of a witchhunt, he gave Chabot a club to whack him over the head with.  And folks aren’t just gonna clear a path for him in the primary when that heavily Democratic HamCo seat gets created.

I don’t think Pureval has much of a future in statewide or congressional politics anymore (and even if he did, he wasn’t going to beat Klein even before he his  congressional bid), barring a wave save on Election Day.  He could definitely have a solid career in HamCo Democratic politics if he keeps his head down and does solid work for the rest of his term as CoC.  Pureval isn’t a rising star anymore and he also hasn’t run a terribly impressive campaign despite a strong start and a perfect political environment.

In fairness, this is what people said about PG Sittenfeld, but so long as David Pepper remains Party Chair, the new bench being built will come disproportionately from Hamilton County. The new allegations of a staffer infiltrating the Chabot campaign are much more concerning than paying for half-a-poll from the state account. There is legal precedent for that, and it should be a nothingburger.