Civil War in Syria

[Frodo]

Russia is bombing the FSA, not ISIS.

I don't honestly care anymore if the FSA is smashed.  What distinctions I thought existed were erased after the few rebels we did train and arm handed over their weapons post-haste to the nearest Islamist outfit.  

 

[Frodo]

I guess we'll see Russia supporting a joint ground effort by Hizz\Iran\Assad in retaking lots of ground to create a ISIS vs Assad 1 on 1 game that will force the west to accept the survival of the old regime. US moves are very much limited now

Let's see what USA get:

They avoid a Islamist regime in Syria.
They avoid a genocide, through not a general mass murder.
American ME allies who have supported anti-western terrorism, waste their money and young men in Syria.
Russia and Iran get the blame and get to pay for it.

I personally think Obama have played his cards very quite well.

I'm not so sure of that.  While the Assad regime may have been given another reprieve by its Russian and Iranian allies, it will never reclaim the bulk of the territory it lost to the rebels (including the Islamic State).  The Sunni-dominated areas will either see continued chaos or rule by Islamists. Much like the situation in Iraq.   

[Frodo]

I guess ISIS will just have to settle for fighting Russian 'crusaders' as opposed to the Americans that they craved:

Russian Soldiers to Join Fight in Syria

By ANDREW E. KRAMER and ANNE BARNARD
OCT. 5, 2015

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[Frodo]

Putin seems to be proving Obama right as he sinks deeper into the quagmire, and it looks like Iran is beginning to view Syria as a lost cause as it steadily withdraws its troops:

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http://www.politico.com/story/2015/12/vladimir-putin-russia-syria-216609

[Frodo]

Bashar al-Assad's future is still up in the air:

After Years of War in Syria, U.N. Passes Resolution on Talks

By SOMINI SENGUPTA and DAVID E. SANGER
DEC. 18, 2015

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[Frodo]

Ramadi has been liberated from ISIL.

[Frodo]

I hope they're right:

Syria's chemical weapons destroyed, monitoring group says

[Frodo]

U.S., Russia and other powers agree on ‘cessation of hostilities’ in Syria’s civil war

By Karen DeYoung
February 11 at 7:04 PM

MUNICH —

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[Frodo]

Discussions have begun on the probable de facto dismemberment of Syria, though the various countries being carved out of it will only be regarded as autonomous entities, and not formally independent.

[Frodo]

Palmyra has been liberated.

[Frodo]

In preparation for an eventual joint Syrian/Iranian/Russian/Hezbollah assault on the large Kurdish pocket in the northeast, we should be arming the Kurds to the teeth (if we aren't already), particularly with anti-tank and anti-aircraft weaponry, and perhaps weaponized drones as well.  Along with equipment to withstand chemical/biological attacks.

[Frodo]

In preparation for an eventual joint Syrian/Iranian/Russian/Hezbollah assault on the large Kurdish pocket in the northeast, we should be arming the Kurds to the teeth (if we aren't already), particularly with anti-tank and anti-aircraft weaponry, and perhaps weaponized drones as well.  Along with equipment to withstand chemical/biological attacks.

I don’t think there’s any reason to believe the SAA is ever going to attack the Kurds. It makes far too much sense for both sides to cooperate.

It doesn't hurt to have contingency plans in case that dynamic changes.  And a well-armed Kurdish Syria would add an extra reason for the SAA and its allies not to attack. 

[Frodo]

Syrians forces shot down a Russian jet while Israel was dropping bombs on Iranians and we didn't talk about it?

Syria and the Russians should just down every aircraft the Israelis send into Syrian airspace.

Israel has no fu**ing business in Syria and stay the fu** out of there.

The only legitimate way for them to attack is if something is going on really close to their border, otherwise they should stop meddling there.

Israel has about as much right to be in Syrian airspace as all the other foreign powers, including Russia and the United States.  If you're going to be demand that Israel stay out of Syria, that should apply to everyone else.  

[Frodo]

Israel has about as much right to be in Syrian airspace as all the other foreign powers, including Russia and the United States.  If you're going to be demand that Israel stay out of Syria, that should apply to everyone else.

Technically false.

Explain.  We all know Russia has been effectively serving as Bashar al-Assad's air force. 

[Frodo]

Now we get to sit back and wait to see where the future martyrs congregate next.  I say somewhere in the Horn of Africa.

West Africa is also a prime target.

[Frodo]

What do you think will happen to the Kurds in Syria under Rojava after the Government defeats the rebels?

That's exactly what worries me the most, and why we should implement a no-fly zone over Kurdish territory like we did for their Iraqi counterparts after the Gulf War.  As well as arming and equipping them with the latest weaponry, particularly anti-aircraft and anti-tank guns.  It will make both Syria and (Russia-aligned) Turkey think twice before attacking them.  

[Frodo]

Thoughts?

Is Assad About to Fall?
While the world wasn’t watching, Syria has edged toward collapse, and the dictator is in his weakest position ever. The U.S. now has a narrow chance to prevent a catastrophe.