Non-political 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Megathread

[Dr. Arch]

Irma is now a category 5 hurricane with 175 mph winds.  The forecast track has it heading toward the Florida Straits.

My parents live in Puerto Rico still. I'm so worried. This is a monster.

[Dr. Arch]

I can't stop worrying about my family... Climate change, my friends

[Dr. Arch]

I can't stop worrying about my family... Climate change, my friends

It's peak hurricane season and the conditions are usually perfect this time of the year. Irma was large enough coming off Africa that she had her own moisture field. No climate change doesn't have anything to do with it. Irma is not the strongest of all time. Not even close yet. Wilma was 882 mb. Hurricane seasons cycle up and down. Remember there was 2005 which had Katrina then 2006 was incredibly in active. Just like 2012 had sandy them 2013 legitimately had only 2 hurricanes that only reached cat 1. There are active years that go nuts and inactive ones that nothing happens. Look up 1933 and 1886s hurricane seasons for instance. And those were likely way more active since there was no satellite to see storms out to sea. No "global warming" then. And remember, there are longer multidecadal cycles of relative activity where we have been in an active period since 1995 that will likely last until 2025 and 2035. The 20s to the 50s were very active then the 60s to 90s were much more quiet

Being from PR, I'm perfectly well acquainted with how hurricanes work. Climate change increases the propensity of conditions for more extreme weather, not the existence of it. You can read some of the thousands of scientific articles on it.

[Dr. Arch]

Hurricane Irma is closing in on sustained winds of 190 mph -and should reach 200 mph soon.  

https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/905144773643816960

200 would be very hard given a pressure of 916. The atmospheric dynamics shouldnt allow for there to be 200 mph winds unless it goes below 900 millibars. Unless the environmental pressure around the storm is very high, then the extreme gradient may allow it

The pressure has been going down steadily with each update. It's entirely possible it hits 200 overnight if it keeps this up.

[Dr. Arch]

Hurricane Irma is closing in on sustained winds of 190 mph -and should reach 200 mph soon.  

https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/905144773643816960

200 would be very hard given a pressure of 916. The atmospheric dynamics shouldnt allow for there to be 200 mph winds unless it goes below 900 millibars. Unless the environmental pressure around the storm is very high, then the extreme gradient may allow it

The pressure has been going down steadily with each update. It's entirely possible it hits 200 overnight if it keeps this up.

You might be right. Meteorologist on TV just said the environmental pressures are high so Irma's got the potential. Unfortunately I think its Barbuda thats in the path tonight, and it could be apocalyptic once the storm is gone. We can only hope that there are no people on that island tonight

Those in the islands don't leave, except tourists and such. People go to local shelters. My friend's young daughter is staying with her family in the Virgin Islands during the storm and they don't seem too concerned, will just be going into their basement.

That's correct. They can't just drop everything and hop on a plane. There simply isn't the infrastructure for that. Imagine doing that in Puerto Rico with a population of 3m+.

[Dr. Arch]

Looks like another storm has formed, Maria, and it's projected path has the storm hitting the Leeward Islands on Monday/Tuesday and hitting Puerto Rico on Wednesday.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at5+shtml/204552.shtml?cone#contents

[Dr. Arch]

Here I am, extremely worried about my parents, colleagues, and friends in PR. I already talked with them, and they already gave me "the talk"--that they'll be safe, but it may be weeks before I hear from them again

[Dr. Arch]

Here I am, extremely worried about my parents, colleagues, and friends in PR. I already talked with them, and they already gave me "the talk"--that they'll be safe, but it may be weeks before I hear from them again

I hope they make it out ok.  My prayers are with them

Thanks It means a lot.

[Dr. Arch]

Hurricane Maria's central pressure is around near Irma's minimum central pressure, which could allow for even more strengthening to 180 mph winds before striking Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands.

Jesus what a season.

Latest is already up to 175 mph and still plenty more water to go over. Prayers for anyone in Maria's path...

Yeah. My parents are frightened even though they're well-prepared. This monster is only several hours away from devastating PR in ways never recorded before in the island's modern history.

[Dr. Arch]

The governor of PR issued a final statement before the storm's impact (in English). See it here:

https://www.facebook.com/prinforma/videos/1701327643251959/

[Dr. Arch]

The governor of PR issued a final statement before the storm's impact (in English). See it here:

https://www.facebook.com/prinforma/videos/1701327643251959/

This is a very scary and unfortunate situation for Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands this morning. I know you have family in PR, so I hope they're alright, Arch. Although Maria is a powerful storm, I'm sure Puerto Ricans are prepared and strong enough to handle it.

Thank you. I just heard from my parents. They're okay! But they haven't slept yet. They spent most of the night making sure everything remained intact. In fact, they had to use tensors indoors to keep the doors from flying away. The house is okay, but the street is blocked by fallen electrical wiring, debris, trees, etc.

They were fortunate. My friend, who moved to CT recently, got a text from his mom at 4:00 AM telling him that the hurricane had ripped away the back door from her house. He has not heard from her since, probably because communications went down not long after that, and he's worried sick.

[Dr. Arch]

We’re looking at 4-5 inches of rain and 50-60 mph wind gusts where I live.

Good stay-at-home weather