Wisconsin Megathread v2: Hagedorn vs. Neubauer

[Dr. Arch]

Anecdotes! Get your red hot anecdotes here!

https://madison.com/ct/news/local/govt-and-politics/it-s-gone-like-crazy-madison-mid-day-voter-turnout/article_c28d46df-62c2-5a1d-be90-fc345ca8f194.html?utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter&utm_campaign=user-share

Dane County is voting at 2016 levels, about 7-10 points better than 2014. The City of Madison is voting 4 points better than 2016. This is comparing turnout in both years at 11 am.

Yep!

https://twitter.com/samcdonell/status/1059889404188221441

You want my guess? This is happening all over the state.

Possibly, but the electorate is going to look different, both in weight and share. If WI votes with similar turnout to 2012, instead of the drop off in D voters like it happened in 2016, we know what's going to happen.

[Dr. Arch]

Turnout in Dane County is now over 55 percent!

Source?

It's actually 50 percent as of 2 P.M.

https://twitter.com/HopeKirwan/status/1059906318331531274

Holy moly

[Dr. Arch]

2016-level turnout in Dane county so far. It might even surpass 2016.

[Dr. Arch]

2016-level turnout in Dane county so far. It might even surpass 2016.

Seriously? Wow!

Straight from the source:

https://twitter.com/samcdonell/status/1059915622811926529

[Dr. Arch]

Tammy Baldwin has just been declared the winner.

Yeah, that's good. Walker is doing well in Waukesha (as expected). We need to see western and northern WI.

[Dr. Arch]

Walker's numbers collapsed in Waukesha, but he's doing well in the eastern end. We still need to watch this one.

[Dr. Arch]

Western WI is coming in strong for Evers.

[Dr. Arch]

What Evers needs right now is damage control, and Dane will clean up the rest. It's looking like Evers is in a better position.

[Dr. Arch]

Most of the City of Madison and parts of the urban core in MKE are out. If Evers can keep the margins he has in the rest of the state, he's got the governorship.

[Dr. Arch]

Most of the City of Madison and parts of the urban core in MKE. If Evers can keep the margins he has in the rest of the state, he's got the governorship.

What do you mean by the first part? Those are the Dem areas left or they’re all in?

Edited, yeah. They're missing.

[Dr. Arch]

https://twitter.com/WisVoter/status/1060018356424720389

Oh! Evers might just have this then.

[Dr. Arch]

Still nervous with Evers only up a little over 1000 votes though...

Now up 3000... so much left for both sides, but La Crosse and Dane are still holding onto a lot of votes, as is, apparently, city of MKE.

Yep, I think he's got this by about 1-1.5%.

[Dr. Arch]

Still nervous with Evers only up a little over 1000 votes though...

Now up 3000... so much left for both sides, but La Crosse and Dane are still holding onto a lot of votes, as is, apparently, city of MKE.

Yep, I think he's got this by about 1-1.5%.

nah, unfortunately he has way less votes to come in.

20% of Dane, most in the City of Madison, uncounted absentees in MKE, Iowa and Green counties, LaCrosse, 50% of Menominee county, the city of Green Bay, yeah no.

[Dr. Arch]

90% in Evers up 304 votes. 45,000 votes yet to be counted from Milwaukee county. All early/absentee.

Excellent, and then there's Iowa/Green (dependably D) in the CNN results missing, so.

[Dr. Arch]

Damn, Dane County reported 86.6% turnout.

 

[Dr. Arch]

Need those votes, 91%, Walker up 2,759.

What results are you watching?

[Dr. Arch]

Need those votes, 91%, Walker up 2,759.

What results are you watching?

TMJ4, 92%, Walker up 2,424.

With the outstanding ballots from MKE and the remaining city precincts, Evers should have it.

[Dr. Arch]

I mean, I don't know a lot about WI, but about 20 minutes ago, I counted outstanding precincts:

356 in R counties
149 in D counties

Though I know that in my own state, the "precincts reporting" figures/stats are absolutely garbage. Can somebody explain why Evers can still win?

Nearly 50,000 absentees missing from MKE alone.

[Dr. Arch]

Preparing myself for New Berlin's turnout to be around 98%.

Even if it's that ridiculous, it won't be enough to cut into over 40,000 MKE ballots.

[Dr. Arch]

1 precinct left in Madison as well, heavy D (college).

[Dr. Arch]

Evers gained ~31,000 in Milwaukee County

https://twitter.com/SykesCharlie/status/1060062097860648960

I want to see those numbers on the news sites, nowwww. My veins require it.

[Dr. Arch]

Milwaukee finally has its revenge

IKR!?

[Dr. Arch]

UGH! I want this whole darn night to be over. This is a nightmare!

Did he win or what?

Given the incoming absentees and the outstanding vote, I feel fairly confident in calling it for Evers.

[Dr. Arch]

Andddd Game! Democratic pickup. (D+1.4, as predicted)

[Dr. Arch]

Funny thing is, they passed a law that you can only have a recount if you lost by less than 1%. They are currently above that.

Yep, it's out of recount territory.