Early & Absentee Voting Megathread - Build the Freiwal

[bilaps]

I think you'll need a reminder what kinds of posts have been written here on day 1 of EV when those numbers favored Dems.

So don't put cold water on these numbers now when they aren't so good for Dems. And if the weekend goes well for them we will see those posts again I'm sure.

Just a fact that we are now talking about how independents will break and how many crossover votes will be and talking about cannibalizing votes in rurals is all you need to know right now about the state of this race which was supposed to be in this kind of year already in the bag for Democrats.

[bilaps]

While everyone was freaking out about the "Dems in disarray" in Nevada because they're not leading by enough, Democrats gained a couple hundred votes thanks to absentees in Clark. Statewide lead is 3.4K. We'll see if they get to 15K statewide, but the way Independents have been voting this year, I'm not sure they'll need to.

Maybe I'm the idiot and am missing something incredibly obvious here, but as you said, I don't see why Dems need a ridiculously gaudy vote margin otherwise the Unbeatable Titan is inevitable. They ended up needing it in 2016, but that was because independents broke heavily for Trump. The idea that they'd need it again seems to be predicated upon the assumption that they will also break heavily for Heller, which...is certainly not a safe one.

Voters in general broke late towards Trump. Democrats needed a much smaller early vote edge in 2010 when Reid won reelection than they needed in 2016. That suggests election day voters broke VERY hard for Trump, and he still lost by 4... someone I don't think that will happen for Heller. I don't see a single good reason why Democrats would need a larger early vote margin than they did in 2010.

Here's one. Election day vote usually favores Republicans. Dems need bigger lead than in 2010 because there are much more registered voters now.

[bilaps]

Some rurals have reported, and Republicans gained about 1.1K counting absentees, but that’s a little less than previous days, since turnout is lower than previous days (like in Clark.) If Washoe is tied and Clark is about a 10-point win for Democrats, we’re probably looking at another draw. We’ll see.

Probably small gain for Dems, maybe couple hundred votes..

[bilaps]

Let's see those Clark numbers but all in all Republicans are doing their job so far in NV

[bilaps]

Ralston thinks the Dems are on pace to hit the firewall he thinks they need.

Where did he say that? On his blog he say that it looks like the firewall be around 30k which will make Republicans happy.

[bilaps]

People need to quit freaking out about the Early Vote. Have faith in the fundamentals, national enviorment, and special election results not noise like this.

Special election results in comparison with early vote actual data in state like NV? Give me a break. Other is far more important at this point.

Also Florida update.

VBM now has Republicans by 60k. But in person early vote also has Republicans ahead now by around 1000 votes.

Either there is huuuuuge crossover vote and independents breaking heavily for Dems either polls are very wrong.

[bilaps]

Ralston thinks the Dems are on pace to hit the firewall he thinks they need.

Where did he say that? On his blog he say that it looks like the firewall be around 30k which will make Republicans happy.

He said today that a firewall of 30K should make Democrats feel “comfortable”, while 35K should make them feel “good.” Neither is a guarantee that they’ll win, and it also probably depends on what happens in other counties.

If that's true he's moving the goalposts. This isn't what he said couple days ago or what I read this morning on his blog.

[bilaps]

I disagree, but we'll see. I don't see the early vote trending that way.