I got an email today mentioning the possibility of former Oklahoma State Senator Randy Brogdon running in a primary against Gov. Mary Fallin in 2014. Apparently he was asked about it and refused to say "Yes" but wouldn't say "No" either. He ran in 2010 and got 39.41% of the vote to Fallin's 54.79%, narrowly missing a runoff. Personally, I don't think he runs. I think it's more likely that he runs to replace Tom Coburn in the Senate in 2016, though he may have stiff competition on that front from someone like T.W. Shannon (Speaker of the OK House).
1. Does anyone think he'll actually run?
2. If he does, what are his chances?
1. He might, but I think he'll wait to see what happens in the next couple months with Fallin's approval ratings especially given the heat that Superintendent Janet Barresi is taking on. I think there is a possibility that Barresi's inevitable demise may bring Fallin down and make her more vulnerable both to a primary challenge and if she does get past that, a strong Democratic challenger. I said all that to say this, don't rule him out.
2. If the scenario I described in point 1 plays out like I think they will, I think his chances will jump. Without the scenario, I'd say 35-40%. With the scenario, probably 55%.
