Latest unemployment figures

[A18]

I can't believe some people are actually blaming Obama for this mess. Just look at the December and January job figures you numbnuts. Obama can't be expected to change everything in a month.

Well, the mere fact that the economy has deteriorated under Obama certainly doesn't demonstrate that he's responsible for the deterioration. Rather, it's his illiberal and increasingly reckless policies that make him share in the blame.

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I expect him to be re-elected. Despite Obama's counterproductive measures (and destructive rhetoric), the economy will almost certainly recover by November of 2012. Obama will then be able to claim credit for the recovery that his policies hindered.

(Of course, the data that will be used to track economic performance—the unemployment rate, and particularly real GDP—are woefully inadequate. Even entirely wasteful government spending counts, for purposes of GDP, not as a transfer payment, but as "production." The predictable result is that as the government grows in size, the accuracy of real GDP and real GDP per capita, even as a crude approximation of living standards, becomes increasingly remote.)

[A18]

Their mere enactment, the rhetoric with which he sells them, and the very real uncertainty about what move the government will make next, is more than enough to effect drastic damage. Who wants to invest, in a political environment like this?

[A18]

It has to do with expectations about the future economic environment. But those expectations are influenced by the prevailing policy regime. If that policy regime is shifting rapidly, it becomes difficult to plan intelligently. This is bad enough in times of prosperity. But in a time of recession—and particularly one that has been hyped up (with the blessings of the political class, who hope to use public fear to advance their agenda) as Great Depression 2.0—it can be disastrous.

This is a government that has made it perfectly clear that it's willing to run trillion-dollar deficits; that it's perfectly willing to use vast amounts of taxpayer money to subsidize those who made foolish decisions; that it is not even content to let housing prices fall; and (most distressingly) that it is untrustworthy and utterly unpredictable. Just where will the Obama team stop? No one knows—none of those things were conceivable as recently as a year ago. Meanwhile, the administration's dire rhetoric continues.

The spending package, while incredibly wasteful, is not per se economically damaging—not, that is, in terms of expansion versus contraction. But its budgetary impact has to make any sane person uncomfortable.