Czech presidential election, January 12-13 & 26-27 2017

[Bojicat]

Is there some reasoning, outside of hunches or partisan wishful thinking, why ZEMAN will NOT be re-elected for a second term as President this weekend? Indications of drunkenness aside, Zeman's positions fit the national mood perfectly in Czechia. Have you forgotten that the Left, the established parties, were routed to historic, wipe-out levels after the October legislative elections? The 'youth' vote went all out for Babis, Okamura's SPD and the Pirate Party. Don't count on this amorphous 'youth', or whatever you want to call it, to suddenly have a change of heart and vote Drahos.

[Bojicat]

Tuesday's no-confidence vote ensures a Babis double-duty push to keep his high-placed friend in Prague Castle, or else. I'm inclined to think he'll succeed. The Drahos challenge depends on, in reality, enhanced support from East/West and Central Prague + Czechs abroad. The rest of Czechia is Zeman’s to lose. To step past 50% the second round on a 26% first-round finish is a mighty tall mountain for Drahos to climb, even with the heavy-lift assist of the five defeated rival candidates using pulleys and ice-axes.

Extracting an arbitrary chunk of voter support from each of these five losing candidates then tacking it with that of Drahos' to reach your magic number is, to say the least, unscientific. No one has any idea what percentage of support will go where, or how much more vote is out there. Any one else's guess will be as good as yours.

The real question you must ponder is: Has the mood in Czechia changed that much since that historic October legislative election brought in the anti-immigrant boot of Babis & Okamura? Is the country suddenly anxious to change gears with a President Drahos?

[Bojicat]

Thanks, Lord Halifax. Fair points.

However, the defenestration of the established parties we saw in the October election, which mostly hit those who tagged Left, was not just a public cry to enhance/maintain the country's immigration quota policy. It was equally an expression of disdain for politicians and political parties who linked themselves to the heavy weight of Brussels, and further, and more poignantly, it was a revolt against the "business as usual" pursuits and thought processes which were calcifying Czechia's political system.

It was a strong, historic vote-booth uprising. Cataclysmic to all the established parties. That cannot be denied.

So I dare say, that with the public's fuse still burning in the tank, which 'package' of credentials and political beliefs has a better chance taking Prague Castle in one week?

Does the public find Zeman distasteful enough to pack him off after just one term? I just don't think so.

[Bojicat]

No doubt as everyone has already heard (since we're all presumably watching developments in this race very closely), Drahos' debate performance vs. Zeman on Monday received very poor marks. Interest was rather high; 2.2 million people watched the debate on Monday. Post-debate polls showed Zeman the better performer at 56%.

Unless Drahos improves tonight, by avoiding a repeat of his glazed, deer-in-the-headlights responses last night, and loosening what appears to be his rather stiff backside, his chances of victory this weekend will be set back irretrievably.

It's "make-or-break." If it's "break," people will justifiably conclude that a candidate who's only claim to fame is that he was a President of the Czech Academy of Sciences is just not ready for primetime.

[Bojicat]

I thought Thursday's final debate went fairly badly for Drahos. He needed to display forcefully and convincingly to the many doubters out there who question his (quite de minimus) bona fides why he deserved to take Zeman's place at Prague Castle. 

Instead, he was stuck on the defensive for most of the night, especially in relation to questions with regard to his utter lack of political experience. This is a severe weakness on Drahos' part.  The night can be summed up by Drahos' response to these questions: "I am no political newcomer." He left this line hovering in thin air without further elaboration.

Zeman will have two terms.