New Zealand Election 2017

[Lachi]

My results

https://newzealand.isidewith.com/en/results/3289392690

[Lachi]

If the Roy Morgan poll shows similar numbers to Colmar Brunton, I think that it's become very likely that Ardern will be the next PM.

I think that Roy Morgan will release sometime early afternoon tomorrow.

[Lachi]

Roy Morgan still have not released their poll yet, and they way it's going, it doesn't seem like it will be released at all this week.

Also, the Roy Morgan site is currently down.

[Lachi]

Roy morgan has FINALLY released, annnnd, it's looking like a toss up according to them.

National 40.0
Labour 39.5
Green 9.0
NZ First 6.0
Māori 2.0
ACT 0.5
Conservative 0.5 (Why are they getting polled???)
Other 2.5

Link:
https://public.tableau.com/profile/roy.morgan.research?publish=yes#!/vizhome/NewZealandPrimaryVote2002-2017/NZVotingIntention

[Lachi]

Averaging out the 2 polls gives us

Labour 41.5
National 40
Green 8
NZ First 6
Maori 2 (only have one poll to go off)
TOP 2 (One poll)

[Lachi]

What are the odds of Winston Peters holding Northland?

Very unlikely, imo.

Also, this is what the Colmar Burton poll looks like when converted into seats:

[Lachi]

In 1993 National won a 1-seat majority, which they'd have lost if a National MP became the Speaker. So they put up Labour MP Peter Tapsell as Speaker, enabling them to survive the 3 years.

Surprised Labour went along with it.  Here in BC, the BC Liberals got 43 seats out of 87 so one shy of a majority while NDP 41 seats and the Greens 3 seats.  The Greens decided to back the NDP thus a 44-43 split however one BC Liberal decided to run for speaker giving them an advantage and the BC Liberals were so outraged they booted him from caucus so if politics is as polarizing as here, I would think if an opposition party did this there would be a lot of anger.  Off course if ACT or United Future win a seat, maybe they could that would seem like a reasonable way to avoid the impasse.

UF will never get another seat in the house, Ōhāriu was their only future hope of holding on to a seat, and Dunne was DOA to begin with anyway, hence his resignation.

[Lachi]

Also, bringing back up the question of exit polling.

There are no exit polls, because any and all polling on election day is actually illegal.

[Lachi]

Here is another very interesting fact:

Since 1990, each party has been in power in 9 year blocks:
National: 1990-1999 (Bogler 1990-1993, Shipley 1993-1999)
Labour: 1999-2008 (Helen Clark was never booted out while Labour was in Government)
National: 2008-? (Key 2008-2017, English 2017-?)

[Lachi]

Looks like the earlier Newshub poll might not be a rogue one or could be just volatility otherwise looks like National is on track to win but lets see what the final polls say.


National 46%


Labour 37%


Greens 8%


NZ First 5%


TOP 2%


Maori 1%

Also on best PM

Bill English 37%
Jacinda Ardern 31%

So perhaps Jacindamania is ebbing a bit.  Still not over but I would say National is probably the favourite at the moment but we shall see.  Either way with Labour making a strong comeback they will be in a good position to win in 2020 and no reason Ardern shouldn't stay on win or lose.

I wouldn't put stock in this poll, considering how far of an outlier it is to literally EVERYTHING else...

[Lachi]

I still don't see how the nationals have shot up when nothing major has happened that would suggest something like this.

[Lachi]

I still don't see how the nationals have shot up when nothing major has happened that would suggest something like this.

It has been 7 weeks since Ardern became leader, maybe the new leader poll bounce is wearing off.

Maybe, but if that was happening, your party wouldn't lose 6 points in one polling period, it would be sliding off a little bit slower, don't you think?

[Lachi]

NEWSHUB POLL:
NAT 45.8
LAB 37.3
NZF 7.1
GRN 7.1
SEAT PROJECTION:
NAT 56
LAB 45
NZF 9
GRN 9
MA 2
ACT 1

[Lachi]

Any chance the polls are doing what they did in the UK, and adjusting their weightings to the point of being irrelevant?

Seems to be the pattern when their is a sudden change followed by wild fluctuations

This could very well be possible. We'll all see if this is happening when the results come in.

[Lachi]

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/election-2017/news/article.cfm?c_id=1504338&objectid=11925334

Everyone they asked were national-leaning, especially Hosking, who is known to be massively bias in favour of them, even while on air, and has been highly criticized over the issue. But hey, right-leaning Herald is gonna ask right-leaning people.

[Lachi]

The result of the advance votes at the 2014 election had very little difference to the overall result.

With a much larger advance vote this time we should see these small differences disappear....

Or should we? 

This time around we are seeing a much more energised left-of-centre voters.

Is it possible that the advance votes could lean to the left by a few points this time compared to the overall result?

This could happen, and it's one of the reasons why I won't be relying too much on the final election day vote total, especially seeing how close it could be.

[Lachi]

Every single ing kiwi who voted for the Nationals are ing sheep...

[Lachi]

Jacinda is about to speak.

[Lachi]

I wouldn't think tonight was a defeat for Labour. They may not form the next Government, but they have returned to the prime position on the centre-left. Before the change of leader that was in doubt.

Oh it certainly isn't a defeat. Their vote is up by 10%, and they've gained quite a few seats (13 seats to be exact).

I would easily take Winston in coalition if it meant that English was knocked out of government.

Also, turnout is ABYSMAL compared to the last election. Newshub reporting a 67% turnout, down from 77.9% at the last election.

[Lachi]

They were commenting on Newshub that with the special votes, Labour could take 1 more seat from the Nats.

[Lachi]

I think one of the stories of the night is that the youthquake did not end up happening this year

[Lachi]

I wouldn't think tonight was a defeat for Labour. They may not form the next Government, but they have returned to the prime position on the centre-left. Before the change of leader that was in doubt.

Oh it certainly isn't a defeat. Their vote is up by 10%, and they've gained quite a few seats (13 seats to be exact).

I would easily take Winston in coalition if it meant that English was knocked out of government

"

The traditional centre-left parties in "the west" are made up of the of a voting coalition of the middle class social liberals and working class populists. In NZ those are represented by Greens and NZF.

Up until 7 weeks ago Labour had lost voters on a medium term basis to both Greens and NZF, they were losing the component parts of their voting coalition. Tonight many of these people came back to Labour.

Also its only Labour that can lead a coalition with both NZF and the Greens, however difficult it might be.

There is no way the Greens could be in a NZF led Government or vice versa.

I'm not expecting them both to work together in a formal coalition with Labour, what would happen is that one of them would be in coalition with Labour, while the other would work in confidence and supply.

Yeah, what happened to turnout ?

It was 78% in 2014 and now stands at 67% - with 99% counted.

Are there some additional votes counted later (those who registered to vote on election day) ?

But nonetheless, it seems turnout won't hit 70% ...

The youth vote didn't end up turning out in a big way, it seems.

[Lachi]

What are the chances that the uncounted special votes could move one seat one way or the other? How close is National to a 59th seat or of falling back to 57 if the special votes skew one way or the other?

I think that it's more likely that the Nats go back one.

[Lachi]

ACT would never join with Either Labour or Greens.

[Lachi]

LOL, Peters lost Northland. He's obviously back as a list MP though.