Ontario 2018 election

[mgop]

Margaret Wente in the Globe, on the choices Ontario faces:

"..On the whole, we Ontarians are not highly ideological people. All we want is a pair of reasonably safe hands on the wheel. And what’s on offer is a couple of folks (i.e. Ford and Horwath) who you wouldn’t trust to drive a golf cart..."

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/opinion/article-fiscal-conservatives-are-struggling-between-options-this-ontario/

and wynne can drive golf cart lol thank god the liberals are done

[mgop]

To put all these polls in context of projected seats (using the http://www.tooclosetocall.ca/p/ontario-2018-simulator.html simulator):

Mainstreet Poll
PC - 79 seats
NDP - 41 seats
Liberal - 4 seats

Pollara Poll
PC - 74 seats
NDP - 50 seats
Liberal - 0 seats

Pollara Advance Voting Poll
PC - 84 seats
NDP - 40 seats
Liberal - 0 seats

beautiful

[mgop]

Caveats about predicting the future notwithstanding, I really think people are overestimating the impact of a single election on a political party, especially one like the OLP. Even a disastrous showing (1-5 seats) would leave them with enough presence in the legislature to organize. Beyond that, and more importantly, the OLP, like most well-entrenched parties, is much more than its elected representatives. The money, institutional memory, expertise, and informal networks that animate it now will still be available to it after the election.

On a broader point, if you look at the ways political parties have died before it's been through a combination of prolonged atrophy and a major issue that split the party (or that it ended up on the wrong side of). The US Whigs, the British Liberals, the SoCreds, the Union Nationale, the pre-merger PCs - they all suffered multiple terms out of office and generational shifts on major issues before they were extinguished (and even then, you can argue a lot of them are still around in some form or another).

yeah but what if they get 0 seats? did ever happend that rulling party lose all seats? at least greens pick one district and go for it.

[mgop]

Caveats about predicting the future notwithstanding, I really think people are overestimating the impact of a single election on a political party, especially one like the OLP. Even a disastrous showing (1-5 seats) would leave them with enough presence in the legislature to organize. Beyond that, and more importantly, the OLP, like most well-entrenched parties, is much more than its elected representatives. The money, institutional memory, expertise, and informal networks that animate it now will still be available to it after the election.

On a broader point, if you look at the ways political parties have died before it's been through a combination of prolonged atrophy and a major issue that split the party (or that it ended up on the wrong side of). The US Whigs, the British Liberals, the SoCreds, the Union Nationale, the pre-merger PCs - they all suffered multiple terms out of office and generational shifts on major issues before they were extinguished (and even then, you can argue a lot of them are still around in some form or another).

yeah but what if they get 0 seats? did ever happend that rulling party lose all seats? at least greens pick one district and go for it.

New Brunswick Tories in 1987. They still managed to get back into power by 1999

wow canadian politics are really weird in eastern europe if party stays below threshold, they are dead lol

[mgop]

lol liberals are center? they funding sharia schools. thats far right even in muslim world.