OH-12 Special Election: Balderson vs. O’Connor on August 7

[Tartarus Sauce]

Tossup/Tilt D. I see Atlas is dismissing special election results in the past and going off "muh too Republican" again.

[Tartarus Sauce]

The gloating from Trump/GOP if Balderson wins will be unbearable no matter how narrow there will be endless talk of #RedWave Dems are doomed.

It's pretty sad that Trump/some Republicans feel this overwhelming need to counter the blue wave narrative with a polar-opposite "red wave" narrative of their own. I mean, really? You'd have to be a moron to think this election would actually be a Republican wave year. There is absolutely nothing suggesting anything close to an R wave and actually most of the data suggests the opposite. The best argument is that Democrats will fall short of expectations in the end and it'll be more neutral even if somewhat Dem-leaning, which would lead to Rs possibly keeping Congress/the House. That is a far better rebuttal that is grounded in reality.

Instead, you just have people reflexively spewing unadulterated BS just to counter every single theory of the election from the left. Do they not care at all about looking like idiots on election day?

They take after Trump, looking like an idiot comes naturally.

[Tartarus Sauce]

A couple more nail biting wins like that in significant right leaning districts and Republicans will win themselves into a minority position of the House.

While it would have been nice to flip it, this is another massive over performance by Democrats.

[Tartarus Sauce]

I hate to sound like this, but this may have been the optimal result for Ds.

They had a 15 point shift, which projects a large D wave, but they didnt win the seat they would likely not hold on to.

The Rs believe the Blue wave is now dead, and will have less voter turnout come NV.

This district, if it keeps its current results in NV, will project a modest to large victory for Corday, and many senate and house seats flipping.

Overall, great results for Ds, and possibly the best result possible.

Let’s not kid ourselves. Winning the seat was the best result possible. But this was still a gangbusters performance considering how tough the political terrain was. If this is the type of results Republicans can expect around the country, they are boned in November.

[Tartarus Sauce]

A couple more nail biting wins like that in significant right leaning districts and Republicans will win themselves into a minority position of the House.

While it would have been nice to flip it, this is another massive over performance by Democrats.

Political environment can change in 3 months. But if we assume it doesn't, about the only thing this shows is that 2018 isn't going to be an unimaginably yuge tidal wave.

I’d bet it changing over not changing, that seems to be the norm in wave years. But even if doesn’t, that’s hardly good news for Republicans. Most of the argument is really over a matter of severity. Will it be a catastrophically bad or apocalyptically bad midterms for Republicans? Or do they somehow manage to just tone it down to really bad?

Republicans certainly have no reason to gloat over this near loss. Plus I doubt the predictive power for forecasting November would have been noticeably different with a squeaker O’Connor win either. What this really changes the most is narrative, which is mostly white noise as far as substance is concerned.

[Tartarus Sauce]

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1027026526871740417

*facepalm*

Trump probably made him do worse than he would of otherwise. This will likely be a boon to Democrats as Trump is now convinced of the moronic notion that he made the difference and will campaign for vulnerable Republicans across the country.

[Tartarus Sauce]

Guys, we needa learn how to take an L.

We are, this is visibly less painful for Atlas Democrats compared to the Ossoff loss a little over a year ago. It’s a lot easier to take it on the chin when we have so many indicators pointing to a favorable midterm environment and Republicans barely clinching a race that shouldn’t have been competitive. I think you’re overreacting a bit.

[Tartarus Sauce]

If Danny O’Conner was smart he’d accept that he lost the special election, and devote his remaining resources to trying to win the general election. Sadly, it’s highly unlikely he’ll win the seat in November, because, if he couldn’t flip it in a august special election with low Republican turnout it’s highly unlikely he’ll flip it in a high turnout general election when more Republicans show up.

The environment could be even worse for Republicans by November, though. Don’t forget multiple Democratic victories in special elections throughout 2009/2010 turned into defeats by November 2010.