2018 Congressional Recruitment/Fundraising/Ratings Megathread v2

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

https://twitter.com/LarrySabato/status/1006956239878807553

Because what these people thought really mattered so much in 2016. For every wealthy elite GOP megadonor living in Arlington that Stewart turns off, he energizes 100 Racist VA Hicks (i.e. the base) in exchange. From a pure cynical numbers perspective, it's a great trade.

For god sakes IceSpear we had a governor race just last year were the GOP nom race on cultural resentment red meat and it resulted in him losing the race by the biggest margin someone had lost a governor race by in Virginia in 30 years

Right, Stewart will lose. Probably by double digits. But the people orgasming about how Kaine is now going to win by eleventy bazillion points are being silly. Stewart will turn people off at the margins, but the base LOVES him, and they constitute the vast majority of Republican voters. He's guaranteed at least 40%.

So the same strategy the CA Republican Party is doing? Kashkari did get 40% in 2014, maybe Cox could get 42%?

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

https://twitter.com/kkondik/status/1012119865124118529

Wrong, Wrong, Wrong, and Wrong.

VA 10th is Likely D

VA 7th was good at Lean R

VA 2nd was good at Lean R

CA 45th was good at Lean R

NJ 2nd is an alright move

NJ 3rd is an alright move.

CA-45 is as much of a tossup as CA-39. If primary results are an indication, shes performing within range of Darrell Issa in his 2016 primary. I wouldn't be surprised to see some resources shifted from the 39th to here

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

TX-31:



https://twitter.com/TexasTribAbby/status/1016371847036899328

R+10 district. Good luck to her.

If it means laying down party/campaign infrastructure which can flip this district by 2030, I'm all for it

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

The pro-repeal folks shot themselves in the foot this election. My amateur hot takes:

1. They spent so much money on putting it on the ballot that their campaign is sitting at around $90,000 right now. Meanwhile, the anti-repeal folks have nearly $10 million CoH. Messaging will be all anti-repeal until November.

2. Summer is over and gas prices are dropping to 'normal' levels. It might not be as passionate an issue when gas is $3.00, instead of $3.50, on election day.

3. Voters can now vote against the gas tax while voting for their elected officials that passed it (Most damning in a place like AD-60, one of the few potentials for a CA GOP pickup this year).


EDIT: As I wrote this, LA Times released this article: 'Four Democratic congressional candidates buck party leaders to oppose California's gas-tax increase'

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

https://twitter.com/redistrict/status/1042532596603863041?s=21

Internal poll frequently off by 20+ points in favor of Republicans has Republican up 7 in a Clinton +20 district - "Toss up, muh Shalala weak candidate"

Respected pollster shows Fitzpatrick up 1 point in a Clinton +1 district - "Lean R, muh Wallace weak candidate"

Poll has Steil up 6 - "Safe R, muh Bryce weak candidate"
Poll has Shalala up 4 in a Clinton +20 district - "Safe D, muh fundamentals are king"

"But muh __Insert sarcastic hot take here__"

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

$1 million in WI-01? Seriously?

But they're running against 'Deadbeat DUI Jailbird Mother-Insulting Dog-Kicker & Waster of Campaign Funds Ironstache' in a R+5 district.


Clearly, they just want to humiliate him further by stretching out their lead from 15% to 30%!