BSH
buck_stops_here
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« Reply #3 on: November 30, 2016, 02:15:14 PM » |
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« Edited: November 30, 2016, 05:39:06 PM by Buck Stops Here »
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Hello all, welcome to Larry J. Sabato’s Crystal Ball outlook into the 2020 election season. We’re already facing what looks to be an exciting year of politics, so let’s get started understanding the state of the race.
Even though we are not yet midway through 2019, the 2020 race is well underway, with candidates on both sides of the aisle looking to capitalize on the one thing we could predict about a Trump presidency--it’s failure. Lets first look at the well-populated Democratic field.
The Democrats
Months before Iowa, DNC chair Ellison has already taken a distinct change of tune for the DNC rank-and-file, promising a whopping fifteen debates as opposed to 2016’s nine. The new nature of these debate, promoting equality over hierarchy, is also bound to shake up the field, as it appears the Democrats are trying the exact opposite strategy they used eight years ago--now elevating the lesser-known voices in comparison to the well established ones. This strategy is bound to frustrate top prospects like Senator Warren, the early frontrunner, who will be unable to debate other leading candidates, including whomever is second in the polls, but simultaneously will be randomly assigned podiums--not having the benefit of taking center stage.
Focusing on Warren for a second, we must remind our readers that the early polls are certainly not indicative of the outcome of the race… Remember, at this time in 2016, Fmr. Governor Jeb Bush was still slated as the Republican frontrunner, and only ended up getting about 1% of the total nationwide vote count. However, we must note that this race appears at least at the time being to be a bit more predictable--at least for the Democrats--than in 2016. With a highly unpopular Trump, the progressive Senator Warren is much more in line with the Democratic base than Mr. Bush was in 2016, something that is visible even now. With all of this in mind, we must remind our readers that the debates are bound to elevate some lesser known candidates into the national fray--and thus charisma and message will be important for all Democrats in setting themselves apart from a forcibly equalized field.
With that preview, let’s look at the Republican field.
The Republicans
This is going to be a much harder quest to decipher. We haven’t seen a contested party primary of this scale since the 1980 Democratic Primaries, in which Ted Kennedy attempted to unseat highly unpopular Jimmy Carter, weighed down by malaise, oil prices, and Iran. 2020 is beginning to look eerily similar with Mr. Cruz on this regard, so let’s attempt to understand the state of the race. Remembering 1980, what was once a primary race looked to be in Kennedy’s favor with sub-30% approval ratings for Carter, the Iran Hostage Crisis’ “Rally around the flag” effect helped propel him in ratings, and keep him afloat in the primary race. What President Trump does and says now more than ever is crucial to earn his party’s candidacy, as we expect many Republicans who were disillusioned in 2016, and remain so today with Mr. Trump to be willing to defect to Sen. Cruz, even if his views are more conservative than the Republican mainstream. While the Republican race now is incredibly hard to predict--especially with the prospect of possible new candidates as well as RNC Chair Ivanka Trump’s lack of comment on the Republican primary, any event in the Presidency could save or destroy Trump, and much like Mr. Carter, it looks like a long perhaps final year in office for President Trump.
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