2019 Mississippi Gubernatorial Thread- Jim is in the hood!

[OneJ]

His wife must’ve finally approved! Beautiful!

[OneJ]

Millsaps-Chism Strategies isn't a stellar pollster, to be fair, so I'd be cautious with them given that they got the Mayoral race in Jackson wrong big time. However, we have slightly over a year until election day 2019. But here's some interesting findings from this poll:

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This finding looks quite different from the SurveyMonkey/NBC poll from earlier today. In the latter poll, 50 percent somewhat approve of the state legislature and 5% strongly approve, which is 55% total approval.

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[OneJ]

I am calling this RN- Whichever way Madison county goes, so goes the state.

And Hood is looking like he'll have another primary opponent. Anthony Witherspoon, mayor of Magnolia, may run. He would run to the left of Hood, and advocates for a $15 minimum wage, legal weed, criminal justice reform, and free community college tuition.

Good luck with winning Mississippi with such program)))) I still prefer Hood's....

More thanks, overall!)))) I hope for analysis of statewide and state legislative candidates, when filing ends.... There must be intersting combinations - Black Republicans, conservative Democrats, and so on....

I am a bit concerned about Hood winning in an 80% black primary...

I understand, but hope that sanity still prevails. No one, but him, has even theoretical chances to beat Republican candidate. And surely - no Black candidate. Democrats already got a bitter lesson in 2015. Slater would lose to Bryant too, but not in catastrophical way Gray did. That influenced state legislative races for sure.

That wasn't the case this year. Baria, who is pro-choice, only managed to get 39.5% against Wicker. It should also be stated that he isn't very well-known. Espy did better, albeit slightly, getting 40.7% and with Tobey Bartee, who's also black but way less recognition, got a total of 42.4%.

However, Hood would obviously outperform the average Democrat regardless of race.

[OneJ]

OneJ, are you worried about the primary challenge to Hood succeeding or no? I am pretty worried.

There is, IMO, a small nonzero chance (probably less than 1%) that the challenger succeeds. I’m fairly confident that Hood’s opponent(s) won’t get very far at all but we’ll see. Too early to be 100% sure.

[OneJ]

Relevant MS-Gov news:  two candidates, a Republican and a Democrat, are entering the race.

Freshman state representative Robert Foster of Hernando will annonce his intention to run as a Republican.  He's unlikely to be significantly well-known or financed in the beginning, but he has a potentially strong DeSoto County base that could be problematic for Reeves in a GOP primary.  It seems like his bio would sell well in a primary, especially in contrast to Reeve's ubiquitous status as a "career politician".

Additionally, former Army officer and JSU administrator Valesha Williams has announced her candidacy as a Democrat.  This is her first run for public office.  I bet she'll try to take up the #OurRevolution banner and attempt to compete with Hood for the African-American and liberal vote.

Two low-tier candidates to be sure, but they are both positioned to take advantage of weak spots that Hood and Reeves have with their bases.

Does it exist in MS?

Lol. But to be fair though, the 2016 Dem primary was roughly split between Liberals and Moderates/Conservatives.

[OneJ]

Delbert Hosemann announced that he’s running for Lt. Governor.

[OneJ]

I'm predicting a 51-46 Reeves win.

[OneJ]

I think the fact that Trump has to come down to MS to campaign extra for the weak Reeves shows that the Republicans have internals pointing to a really close race ...

This could be a real surprise.

Pepperidge Farm remembers when Trump holding a rally for Marsha Blackburn in October meant it was surely still a competitive race.

And to add to this, Trump held a rally here last year for Hyde-Smith before the runoff. That race wasn't particularly competitive either.

[OneJ]

Some thoughts that I wanted to share about the races from last night here:

1. It irritates me that Lafayette County flipped, but Forrest County didn't. Even Madison County flipped before it.
2. Hood underperforming Espy in DeSoto is a bit disappointing.
3. The national trend of the urban/rural divide is continuing here. I can definitely see suburban counties like Madison and DeSoto trending D in 2020 and for the foreseeable future.
4. Downballot Dems overall did better in the statewide races than in the disastrous year of 2015 (there was no way to go, but up). It seems that they might be improving their floor.
5. Turnout wasn't that high and will likely just fall short of 2018. Usually, governors races here have better turnout than midterm senate races.
6. Hughes underperforming Collins, Cole, and Dupree was unexpected. I thought it makes sense since I saw Riley Collins' ads in last few weeks often but it doesn't explain why Cole or Dupree did better than him. I guess it has to do with Hosemann's strength.