2020 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread

[OneJ]

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/Gravis_Montana_October_27_2018.pdf

MT-AL Gravis: Williams (D-inc) 48, Gianforte (R-inc) 48

Tester+3 in that poll, and Trump with 58/39 approval, so this looks pretty plausible.

Why does it have to be from Gravis though?

[OneJ]

According to this, Change Research has a C+ grade from FiveThirtyEight.

[OneJ]

GOP poll has IL-14 as a tie:

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Source

 

[OneJ]

https://twitter.com/AlyseGalvin/status/1058117114677014528

Looks too good to be true honestly just like the poll that had Bad Boy Begich up.

[OneJ]

https://twitter.com/mmurraypolitics/status/1059194100199682049

Someone asked "Missouri?  Florida?  Texas?"  He responded "Two out of those three, yes."

I’m hoping for Missouri and Texas. I wouldn’t mind Florida as long as it’s paired with Missouri.

However, it does sadden me that these might be the last few polls for this season, especially since the higher quality pollsters haven’t sprung up, at least not yet.

[OneJ]

Lol!

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1059252213153964032

Looks like he’s been reading this thread too.

[OneJ]

So much for the piping hot takes that Democrats needed to win the PV by double digits to take the House, lol.

God, the #analysis from the pundits is so terrible.

Very good point.

[OneJ]

You're damn right we already have 2020 recruiting news.

https://twitter.com/PatrickSvitek/status/1075893126026403841

Wonderful news!

[OneJ]

Nicole Malliotakis is challenging Max Rose

She won Staten Island with over 70% in 2017, though that was more a rebuke of de Blasio. Rose will be much tougher to dislodge though she is a strong candidate.

damn it, this is like the one person who can take down Rose pretty easily.

yeah this is an amazing recruit. Great for the GOP image too. She's a star, and I expect Elise Stefanik's new PAC to absolutely DUMP money into supporting her.

Now watch your star recruit losing the primary to Grimm.

I mean, I wouldnt be so sure hell win considering he lost the primary 64-36

Donovan was an incumbent. Grimm put up a reasonably strong result.

However, I agree with jdb that NY-11 starts off as Tilt D at this point.

[OneJ]

Below is the list of GOP targets:

[snip]

I would argue that FL-27 fits in your bolded list.

[OneJ]

How do Horn, McAdams, and Cunningham win again?  They're among my favorites of the new class so far.

Hope 2020 is a Democratic tsunami, because they're going to lose otherwise.

With how their districts are trending, Horn and McAdams certainly don’t need a "tsunami" to survive. A good year for Democrats? Maybe. A tsunami? No. Cunningham is probably the most vulnerable of the three, but then again I wouldn’t say he’s much more likely to lose than someone like Brindisi or Peterson.

Peterson, Cunningham, and Horn (also XTS, Rose, and Brindisi) are all gone in a close Presidential


SLC tends to be weird and sometimes votes Dem and Trump is unpopular in UT, so McAdams is the likeliest, by far, to survive of these

Max Rose's race is Tilt D at worst in a close Presidential race and with XTS, and Peterson, they'd be underdogs, but could easily end up winning re-election even with a close Presidential race.  Horn, Cunningham, and Brindisi are probably in trouble though without a damaged or non-A list opponent (especially Horn who seems like she was probably a fluke)

Staten Island is very Trumpy

Also Nicole Malliotakis, who is running, trounced deBlasio in Staten Island, she got over 70%, in 2017, bold prediction, Malliotakis wins Staten Island by at least 10 percentage points against Rose

the recent nyc qpac poll had him at -5 in Staten, and every dem won it in 2018. Seems to be swinging back.

This. Reminder that it wasn’t too long ago that Obama ended up winning this borough for whatever odd reason. Also, that recent NYC poll from Quinnipiac was not the first time it showed Trump underwater there.

[OneJ]

https://twitter.com/lbarronlopez/status/1115618609617940480

[OneJ]

Rematch underway:

https://twitter.com/Marie4Congress/status/1118129266179366913

Guess who (unsurprisingly) endorsed her:

https://twitter.com/daveweigel/status/1118319418453438465

[OneJ]

I really like how Polk and the rest of the district remained their exact shares of the vote.

[OneJ]

Eastman seems like she’s looking for a rematch:

https://mobile.twitter.com/karaforcongress/status/1129222539463536640

Also really hilarious the amount of people who think she was the one who blew the race.

[OneJ]

Eastman seems like she’s looking for a rematch:

https://mobile.twitter.com/karaforcongress/status/1129222539463536640

Also really hilarious the amount of people who think she was the one who blew the race.

Err...that's because she did

What I meant was that the blame should go to her when the DCCC triaged the seat.

[OneJ]

We have a few people here taking a poll from the NRCC as gospel over a year away from the election...I'm shocked I tell you, shocked.

[OneJ]

Its not the greatest but its only been like 70 days and it is more than O'Rourke did in the same period.

https://twitter.com/PatrickSvitek/status/1145789914627411971?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw...

A solid start.

Nice!

[OneJ]

RRH thinks Democrats will holds the house and their current range is a GOP again of 16 to a democratic gain of 4. That makes sense to me. Does anyone actually think democrats are going to hold all their Trump seats in a presidential year? Come on. Atlas it the one in denial.

How about you actually point out to all the people on here saying that the Democrats will hold all of their Trump seats?

[OneJ]

https://twitter.com/GreenfieldIowa/status/1181924948450910208