2018 Congressional Generic Ballot and House Polls Megathread - the original

[Devout Centrist]

Look, Folks, we live in a bubble on this site. Can we at least recognize that?

[Devout Centrist]

Our lead in the GCB is sub-7 (per 538) for the first time in a long time. Consider me very worried.

Dude, the LV screen on the CNN poll has Democrats up 15. Chill.

[Devout Centrist]

Anyways, bye.

Good

[Devout Centrist]

I’m trying to decide what the best way to interpret that poll’s enthusiasm gap numbers are.

Wow, it's even larger than it was for Republicans in 2010...

[Devout Centrist]

Another fun graph:

....oh my god

sidenote: what happened in 1998??

Bill Clinton, Impeachment of

[Devout Centrist]

Y'know, no one is going to learn their damn lesson. We're gonna repeat the doomsaying of the past few weeks within two months or so.

[Devout Centrist]

In all likelihood, they’re probably useless morning consult polls that show Generic D leading Generic R 41-40 in WA-08 or something

[Devout Centrist]

That PPP polling suggests the Republicans have made significant gains since November. Patriot Majority had PPP poll some of the districts in November, and look at the changes.


Went from D+12 in CA-25 to D+2
Phillips led in MN-03 by 4 and now leads by 3
Generic D led Frelinghuysen in NJ-11 by 2, Sherill now is down by 2 to Generic R
Generic D led Faso by 6 in NY-19, and now is tied.

Massive R swings. No wonder some House Ds are in panic mode.

Will you delete your account if the House flips?

[Devout Centrist]

Limo is also on RRH again this morning posting the same links over there. Really not that smart, Andrew.

No dude. Today I went to English class, did a timed writing about Catcher in the Rye, and then AP GOV, where we learned about party primaries (I already know a lot). Now I have a little free time. I'm going to continue countering your bullsh**t with my actual life until you stop with the RRH stuff.

...

[Devout Centrist]

In other news, the Democratic Generic Ballot advantage on 538 is at 7%. That's about the same as it was in the summer of 2018. I think that we're overestimating the effects of a Republican gerrymander. It reminds me a little of 2010. Many pundits missed the fact that Democrats were historically overextended in Republican territory; I think something similar is brewing this cycle.

Democrats are on track for a massive win this year, I’m currently projecting a net gain of D+30 in the House and D+2 in the Senate.

That is a bit optimistic.

[Devout Centrist]

LL, you said you'd leave for about three weeks at the start of the month. That didn't happen.

You said you'd hope the polls would be better for Democrats when you came back. They are.

What I'm saying is, I don't see what you contribute to the discussion. You pop in, lecture folks on how these polls are bad, and then, either get in an argument or leave. Or else remind everyone you're in AP Gov.

Honestly, this is why I find you less tolerable than King Lear. It'd be easy to chalk it all up to concern trolling, however you want to be treated as a credible psephologist when you lack any sense of perspective. It's clear you take some of this seriously, but not seriously enough to actually make a useful contribution.

[Devout Centrist]

My sources have confirmed to me that the Soviet Union will survive until 1992, at least, and probably for the entirety of the next century

[Devout Centrist]

70+ seats...I'm tellin ya

https://www.twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/971792070011752448

This coming from a writer from The Economist.

He's still an undergrad, though. I wouldn't read too much into that.

[Devout Centrist]

Civiqs asks participants to join a survey via email.

I get updates from them every so often; doesn’t seem high quality

[Devout Centrist]

Y'know, no one is going to learn their damn lesson. We're gonna repeat the doomsaying of the past few weeks within two months or so.

[Devout Centrist]

Man, you guys are never a day late. About a month and a half to the day of the last major panic. Seriously, some of you need to grow a pair

[Devout Centrist]

Harvard CAPS/Harris Poll: http://harvardharrispoll.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/Final_HHP_April2018_RegisteredVoters_Topline_Memo.pdf

Interestingly there were sort of 2 generic ballot questions asked:

If the 2018 midterms were held today, would you vote for the Democratic or Republican candidate in your district?

Democrat: 43
Republican: 34
Other: 5
Unsure: 17

If the 2018 midterm elections were today, would you want to see the Republican Party or the Democratic Party win control of the United States House of Representatives?

Democratic Party: 56
Republican Party: 44

If the election were today, would you want to see the Republican Party or the Democratic Party win control of the United States Senate?

Democratic Party: 55
Republican Party: 45

Seems to indicate a strong preference among undecideds for the Democratic Party.

who are that odd 1% who want to see a Dem house / Rep Senate?

People who clicked '2' on accident

[Devout Centrist]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

--CargoConservative, November 2016

[Devout Centrist]

YouGov, May 6-8, 1228 RV

D 44 (+2)
R 35 (-4)

Crosstabs indicate that Democrats are winning in the Northeast (Census region; really New England +Mid Atlantic) 48-31(!), in the Midweast 43-34, and in the West 48-33(!).

IF this is close to what the final margins look like in November, it's very hard to see Republicans holding the House.

[Devout Centrist]

Y'know, no one is going to learn their damn lesson. We're gonna repeat the doomsaying of the past few weeks within two months or so.

[Devout Centrist]

We had anti administration waves in 2006, 2010, and 2014.  Actually history would mitigate against a 4th similar wave.

Evidence of different projections for college educated and non college voters would support such a likelihood.

In 2016 we all know the nation voted like 2 different nations. It may be that division will continue in 2018.  It may we’ll be that national generic polls may well mask this division.

You know in 2016 we were all surprised Trump was elected, that the GOP retained the Senate, and the GOP did not lose more seats in the House. Surprise again.

Midterms are almost always bad for the party in the white house. Its not a recent trend that started in 2006.

Not Always

In 2002 the GOP gained 8 House seats and 2 Senate seats
In 1998 the GOP actually lost 4 House seats and the Senate numbers did not change
In 1990 the GOP only LOST just 7 seats in the House and 0 in the Senate
In 1982 the Senate was unchanged, the GOP LOST 26 in the House
In 1978 the GOP gained 15 in the House and 2 in the Senate
In 1970 the GOP lost just 2 in the House and gained 3 in the Senate
In 1962 the GOP lost 4 in the House and only gained one in the Senate.

Since 1896 there have never been four successive midterm wave elections.  I do not believe before 1896 either

1938, 1942, 1946, 1950, possibly 1954, 1958...c'mon dude, a google search would have shown otherwise.

[Devout Centrist]

We had anti administration waves in 2006, 2010, and 2014.  Actually history would mitigate against a 4th similar wave.

Evidence of different projections for college educated and non college voters would support such a likelihood.

In 2016 we all know the nation voted like 2 different nations. It may be that division will continue in 2018.  It may we’ll be that national generic polls may well mask this division.

You know in 2016 we were all surprised Trump was elected, that the GOP retained the Senate, and the GOP did not lose more seats in the House. Surprise again.

Midterms are almost always bad for the party in the white house. Its not a recent trend that started in 2006.

Not Always

In 2002 the GOP gained 8 House seats and 2 Senate seats
In 1998 the GOP actually lost 4 House seats and the Senate numbers did not change
In 1990 the GOP only LOST just 7 seats in the House and 0 in the Senate
In 1982 the Senate was unchanged, the GOP LOST 26 in the House
In 1978 the GOP gained 15 in the House and 2 in the Senate
In 1970 the GOP lost just 2 in the House and gained 3 in the Senate
In 1962 the GOP lost 4 in the House and only gained one in the Senate.

Since 1896 there have never been four successive midterm wave elections.  I do not believe before 1896 either

1930, 1934, 1938, 1942, 1946, 1950, possibly 1954, 1958...c'mon dude, a google search would have shown otherwise.

1934 was the opposite of a wave

I suppose so, if we use the ‘opposite party’ definition.

[Devout Centrist]

Don't expect live caller polls until June

[Devout Centrist]

IIRC there was what we would call nowadays a reverse age gap on attitudes towards the Vietnam War, unsurprising since the youth at the time were the conservative baby boomers and the seniors were the ultra-liberal GI generation.

I thought the younger folks were more likely to oppose the war.

But later, in the '90s, the younger voters were indeed more conservative. The first presidential election I could vote in was 1992, and I remember seeing a poll that said my generation was the most conservative at the time.

[Devout Centrist]

Culberson has bee elected with reduced majorities since 2010. In 2012, he won by around 22 points. Last year, he won by 13. I only expect Democrats to capture ~11-13 of the districts Clinton won. Trump districts are more fertile than most think.